CrazyC83 wrote:Consider all the possibilities that are reasonable for Audrey:
919mb - absolute lowest possible, based on Port Arthur and Hackberry data with a very tight core (not supported by radar)
931mb - using Schloemer equation with smaller RMW from Hackberry
940mb - working backwards from Winnfield if a central pressure (lower if peripheral)
946mb - using Schloemer equation with originally estimated RMW from Hackberry - and previously in HURDAT
955mb - using Schloemer equation with larger RMW from Hackberry
960mb - absolute highest possible, with Jarvinen estimated RMW and Hackberry near center and a bit high (not supported by wind obs)
How would the intensity have been set in each situation?
If the 919 was accurate, it would have been a bombing out storm with a tight, tight core. Clearly Category 5, probably about 150 kt. No way that is right - radar data and surface obs do not suggest such.
If the 931 was accurate and the original inner core was used, it still would have been rapidly deepening up to landfall. Most likely a landfall intensity of 130 kt would have been justified there.
If the 940 was accurate, that would support about 115 or 120 kt. However, the marshes over southern Louisiana would have slowed the weakening after landfall in most cases. Hence 945 or so would make more sense for working backwards.
If the 946 was accurate (and used in HURDAT and retained), 110 kt is justified with a 15 nm core but 100 or 105 kt would make most sense with a 30 nm core.
If the 955 was accurate (Jarvinen suggested it), it would have a larger core - probably about 35 nm, on the highest end of plausible. Also suggest would suggest only slow strengthening at most in the last 24 hours. I would suspect 90 kt would have been chosen as the intensity in that scenario.
If Hackberry was a bit off and was the minimum pressure, using 960, most likely 80 kt would have been the intensity given its extremely large, sprawling core in that scenario.
Audrey being a possible Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico in late June is really unusual. I am more inclined to say Category 3 at most.