Reanalysis questions

[CrazyC83]

So 1933 actually lost a storm?

Yes - Storms 3 and 4 were the same system, so they had a track combined. Also a couple storms were downgraded to depressions, while a couple new storms were found.

[Hurricane Jed]

1931: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1931.html
1932: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1932.html
1933: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1933.html
1934: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1933.html
1935: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1935.html

Just a few notes. 1931 gains 4 new storms, previously had 9, now has 13. 1932 gains 4 new storms, previously had 11, now has 15. 1933 gains two storms, loses two storms and has two storms combined, previously had 21, now has only 20. Bit of a surprise there, really thought the number would increase. 1934 gains 3 storms and loses a storm, previously had 11, now has 13. 1935 gains two storms, previously at 6, now at 8.

[CrazyC83]

So I wonder what will be released next - 1936-43 or 1944-53?

[MGC]

If they keep finding storms it will alter the long term averages. Perhaps the last few years have not been that abnormal in terms of increased activity......MGC

[Hurricane Jed]

1950 is of particular interest to me. If they find more storms or that certain storms were stronger or existed longer, 1950 will likely surpass 2005's ACE value.

[bg1]

1950 is of particular interest to me. If they find more storms or that certain storms were stronger or existed longer, 1950 will likely surpass 2005's ACE value.

I saw a report (I think 1944-53 preliminary findings) before which said 1950's ACE may actually fall to 204.

[Hurricane Jed]

1940's: More or less Category 5's?

[Ptarmigan]

I saw a report (I think 1944-53 preliminary findings) before which said 1950's ACE may actually fall to 204.

1950 is still pretty active. ACE value of 200 or over for Atlantic is an outlier.

[CrazyC83]

1940's: More or less Category 5's?

Unless a new one is found in the early part of the decade, none at all it appears.

I also think the 1960s will lose some of their Cat 5's.

[Hurricane Jed]

1940's: More or less Category 5's?

Unless a new one is found in the early part of the decade, none at all it appears.

I also think the 1960s will lose some of their Cat 5's.

Ethel and Donna would be the most likely candidates. Hattie and Beulah should retain Cat 5 status as they have pressures typical of a Category 5 (thinking Andrew here). Camille definitely stays Cat 5. Carla is iffy, but Carla was a beast so idk about her. Think any could be upgraded, Inez possibly?

[HurricaneBill]

Ethel and Donna would be the most likely candidates. Hattie and Beulah should retain Cat 5 status as they have pressures typical of a Category 5 (thinking Andrew here). Camille definitely stays Cat 5. Carla is iffy, but Carla was a beast so idk about her. Think any could be upgraded, Inez possibly?

I thought I read somewhere that Inez had flight level winds that supported Category 5 status.

Another one I'm interested in will be the track of Hurricane Faith in 1966.

[Hurricane Jed]

Are you finding the length of Faith's path dubious? Some 7500 miles total wasn't it?

[Ptarmigan]

1940's: More or less Category 5's?

Unless a new one is found in the early part of the decade, none at all it appears.

I also think the 1960s will lose some of their Cat 5's.

Ethel and Donna would be the most likely candidates. Hattie and Beulah should retain Cat 5 status as they have pressures typical of a Category 5 (thinking Andrew here). Camille definitely stays Cat 5. Carla is iffy, but Carla was a beast so idk about her. Think any could be upgraded, Inez possibly?

Ethel definitely will be downgraded. The central pressure does not support Category 5 right there. I think Ethel was Category 2 at most. I think Donna is Category 5. As for Hattie and Beulah, they are Category 5 as well. Carla would be interesting. The central pressure with 175 mph winds is 936 millibars, while at landfall it was 931 millibars with 150 mph winds. Carla was a large hurricane, so the wind speed had to be lower.

Here is a surface wind analysis for Carla when it was 175 mph and 936 millibar. It shows that Carla's peak at the time was 105 mph or Category 2. It is a large hurricane that time.
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

[HURAKAN]

"A re-analysis of the 1931 through 1935 Atlantic hurricane seasons is completed. All 58 existing tropical storms and hurricanes were revised in their tracks and maximum winds. There were 15 new tropical storms discovered and added into Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) while four existing systems were removed. Of particular interest is the 1933 season - one of the busiest on record."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120507_p ... is1935.pdf
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html

[CrazyC83]

Ethel definitely will be downgraded. The central pressure does not support Category 5 right there. I think Ethel was Category 2 at most. I think Donna is Category 5. As for Hattie and Beulah, they are Category 5 as well. Carla would be interesting. The central pressure with 175 mph winds is 936 millibars, while at landfall it was 931 millibars with 150 mph winds. Carla was a large hurricane, so the wind speed had to be lower.

Here is a surface wind analysis for Carla when it was 175 mph and 936 millibar. It shows that Carla's peak at the time was 105 mph or Category 2. It is a large hurricane that time.
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

Agreed with Ethel, my best guess for its peak intensity is 95 kt (75 kt at landfall) based on the 972mb pressure and fairly small size. A document already showed Donna likely being downgraded to a Cat 4 peak.

My best guess for Carla at landfall is 115 kt (and 105 kt at the time of the HRD analyses as they may not have caught the maximum winds), based on the huge size and the landfall pressure of around 929mb (adjusted thinking it may have been a bit deeper between the Recon pressure and the Port Lavaca pressure which was just after landfall). In terms of winds, it wouldn't even be the strongest storm to hit Texas...

I don't know anything about the size of Beulah (I haven't looked at it in detail) so can't really make a judgement there. Hattie and Camille should definitely remain Cat 5 at peak intensity. Inez should also be upgraded from Cat 4 to Cat 5 (best guess is 145 kt), since it was a very small storm at the time of the 927mb pressure.

So if that is all right, and nothing else gets upgraded (haven't found any real contenders other than Inez), then there would be 3 or 4 Cat 5's in the 1960s.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Are you finding the length of Faith's path dubious? Some 7500 miles total wasn't it?

I'm sure reanalysis will knock its extratropical transition point way back.

[Hurricane Jed]

Ethel definitely will be downgraded. The central pressure does not support Category 5 right there. I think Ethel was Category 2 at most. I think Donna is Category 5. As for Hattie and Beulah, they are Category 5 as well. Carla would be interesting. The central pressure with 175 mph winds is 936 millibars, while at landfall it was 931 millibars with 150 mph winds. Carla was a large hurricane, so the wind speed had to be lower.

Here is a surface wind analysis for Carla when it was 175 mph and 936 millibar. It shows that Carla's peak at the time was 105 mph or Category 2. It is a large hurricane that time.
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

Agreed with Ethel, my best guess for its peak intensity is 95 kt (75 kt at landfall) based on the 972mb pressure and fairly small size. A document already showed Donna likely being downgraded to a Cat 4 peak.

My best guess for Carla at landfall is 115 kt (and 105 kt at the time of the HRD analyses as they may not have caught the maximum winds), based on the huge size and the landfall pressure of around 929mb (adjusted thinking it may have been a bit deeper between the Recon pressure and the Port Lavaca pressure which was just after landfall). In terms of winds, it wouldn't even be the strongest storm to hit Texas...

I don't know anything about the size of Beulah (I haven't looked at it in detail) so can't really make a judgement there. Hattie and Camille should definitely remain Cat 5 at peak intensity. Inez should also be upgraded from Cat 4 to Cat 5 (best guess is 145 kt), since it was a very small storm at the time of the 927mb pressure.

So if that is all right, and nothing else gets upgraded (haven't found any real contenders other than Inez), then there would be 3 or 4 Cat 5's in the 1960s.

Category 4 hurricanes of the 1960's
1. 1961- Betsy: 945mb-120kt (140mph), Esther: 927mb-125kt (145mph)
2. 1963: Flora: 940mb-125kt (145mph)
3. 1964- Cleo: 950mb-135kt (155mph), Dora: 942mb-115kt (135mph), Gladys: 945mb-125kt (145mph), Hilda: 941mb-130kt (150mph)
4. 1965- Betsy: 941mb-135kt (155mph)
5. 1966- Inez: 929mb-130kt (150mph)

Esther's pressure is very intriguing and given where it reached its peak that might be something to watch. I don't know if any of the others should though.

[Hurricanehink]

There won't likely be any upgrades for the early 1940's due to World War II. There weren't all that many observations, available, so what we have is it. That preliminary paper from 44-53 also downgraded the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, IIRC, meaning there might not have been any Category 5 hurricanes in the 1940s.

By the way, on no basis of science or anything ( ) I think Faith will be considered extratropical as of September 4th, as that was the last day it has a pressure listed in HURDAT.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There won't likely be any upgrades for the early 1940's due to World War II. There weren't all that many observations, available, so what we have is it. That preliminary paper from 44-53 also downgraded the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, IIRC, meaning there might not have been any Category 5 hurricanes in the 1940s.

Have a link to the paper in question? If so, I thank you in advance.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I found it -

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1944-53-reanalysis.pdf *

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