Reanalysis questions

[Ptarmigan]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1941.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1942.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1943.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1944.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1945.html

Also a May US Hurricane landfall in 1863 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 12-00171.1

Have fun folks. Storm #2 for 1941 is a very very interesting read.

Interesting that a hurricane made landfall in 1863.

[Hurricane Jed]

Yeah because the other five failed to do so. 3 of the 4 TS's that season did make landfall however.

[Hurricaneman]

For future reanalysis heres what I would go for in terms of wind speed, anyone got any additional ones

Carol 1954
Peak 125mph
Landfall 115mph

Gloria 1985:
peak 160mph
NC Landfall: 115mph
NY Landfall: 90mph

Hugo 1989
Peak 170mph
PR Landfall: 120mph
SC Landfall: 150mph

Bob 1991:
Peak 125mph
Landfall 105mph no change

Fran 1996
Peak 125mph
Landfall 120mph no change

Floyd 1999
Peak 165mph
NC Landfall 100mph
NE Landfall 60mph

Isabel 2003
Peak 175mph
NC Landfall 100mph

Wilma 2005
Peak 200mph
Yucatan Landfall: 145mph
FL Landfall: 120mph

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if they have done any re-analysis for the 1875 or 1886 Hurricane Season.

[Hurricane Jed]

I wonder if they have done any re-analysis for the 1875 or 1886 Hurricane Season.

uhhhhhhhhhhh reanalysis is complete from 1851-1945. Reanalysis for the 1800's has been complete for over 10 years.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if they have done any re-analysis for the 1875 or 1886 Hurricane Season.

uhhhhhhhhhhh reanalysis is complete from 1851-1945. Reanalysis for the 1800's has been complete for over 10 years.

I just did not realize it. The reason I asked was that some of the landfalling hurricanes do not have ROCI.

[Hurricane Jed]

Lol its cool. Even I don't know everything that has made landfall in the US. I know somewhere there is a list of landfalling US hurricanes but I question its accuracy.

[CrazyC83]

I read somewhere that our own member HURAKAN is working on the reanalysis for 1955-1964, is that true?

[HURAKAN]

I read somewhere that our own member HURAKAN is working on the reanalysis for 1955-1964, is that true?

correct!

[Hurricane Jed]

Hurakan, is reanalysis going to continue to be released in the 5 year format or since we are now in the reconnaissance era and working up to the satellite era, will more than 5 years be released at a time?

[Alyono]

For future reanalysis heres what I would go for in terms of wind speed, anyone got any additional ones

Carol 1954
Peak 125mph
Landfall 115mph

Gloria 1985:
peak 160mph
NC Landfall: 115mph
NY Landfall: 90mph

Hugo 1989
Peak 170mph
PR Landfall: 120mph
SC Landfall: 150mph

Bob 1991:
Peak 125mph
Landfall 105mph no change

Fran 1996
Peak 125mph
Landfall 120mph no change

Floyd 1999
Peak 165mph
NC Landfall 100mph
NE Landfall 60mph

Isabel 2003
Peak 175mph
NC Landfall 100mph

Wilma 2005
Peak 200mph
Yucatan Landfall: 145mph
FL Landfall: 120mph

May I ask you what you are basin your estimates on?

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, is reanalysis going to continue to be released in the 5 year format or since we are now in the reconnaissance era and working up to the satellite era, will more than 5 years be released at a time?

I haven't heard otherwise, but I will ask and get back to you. The closer we get to the present, the more data I got to work with, so it takes more time to reanalyze each storm. More data doesn't make the work easier.

[CrazyC83]

Hurakan, is reanalysis going to continue to be released in the 5 year format or since we are now in the reconnaissance era and working up to the satellite era, will more than 5 years be released at a time?

I haven't heard otherwise, but I will ask and get back to you. The closer we get to the present, the more data I got to work with, so it takes more time to reanalyze each storm. More data doesn't make the work easier.

More data can actually make it harder and more time consuming, not to mention the potential for conflicting data. For my 4th year thesis, I'm thinking of a reanalysis on 1995 (yes, recent, but the first year that I was really watching closely + the start of this active period).

[Hurricanehink]

Hurakan, is reanalysis going to continue to be released in the 5 year format or since we are now in the reconnaissance era and working up to the satellite era, will more than 5 years be released at a time?

I haven't heard otherwise, but I will ask and get back to you. The closer we get to the present, the more data I got to work with, so it takes more time to reanalyze each storm. More data doesn't make the work easier.

More data can actually make it harder and more time consuming, not to mention the potential for conflicting data. For my 4th year thesis, I'm thinking of a reanalysis on 1995 (yes, recent, but the first year that I was really watching closely + the start of this active period).

Would there be that many changes to 1995, given that it was so recent? I heard of a potential storm near Newfoundland, but I wasn't aware the intensities might be that off.

[Alyono]

Would there be that many changes to 1995, given that it was so recent? I heard of a potential storm near Newfoundland, but I wasn't aware the intensities might be that off.

I could see revisions since the 80 percent rule was used then

[beoumont]

For future reanalysis heres what I would go for in terms of wind speed, anyone got any additional ones



Hugo 1989
Peak 170mph
PR Landfall: 120mph
SC Landfall: 150mph

The 120 mph in Puerto Rico is way too low. Simply look at this video shot at Luquillo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVAb7a1Hp_g

This was a high end Cat #3, at least; when the NW eyewall came ashore. At that time of max. winds at Luquillo the "center" of the large eye was still hours offshore to the SE, and moving only 7-10 mph.

I guess one could argue that once the calm eye reached Luquillo with the center of the eye at Luquillo's latitude , and the eyewall had crossed the Yunque mountains and forest to the west for many hours, the highest sustained winds were only 120 mph; if that would be the definition of landfall.

[CrazyC83]

My initial thoughts for 1995 through older research (peak intensities only) - +1 hurricane and +1 major hurricane:

Allison - 65 kt
Barry - 65 kt (upgrade to hurricane; 86 kt winds at 925)
Chantal - 55 kt (downgrade, 67 kt winds at 925 and ship reports)
Dean - 40 kt
Erin - 85 kt
Felix - 130 kt (upgrade, 143 kt at 700)
Gabrielle - 55 kt (downgrade, 73 kt at 925)
Humberto - 95 kt
Iris - 100 kt (upgrade to major, brief consensus T5.5)
Jerry - 40 kt (upgrade, surface observations)
Karen - 45 kt
Luis - 130 kt (upgrade, 146 kt at 700)
Marilyn - 110 kt (upgrade, 121 kt at 700)
Noel - 70 kt (upgrade, one agency had T4.5 at one point)
Opal - 135 kt (upgrade, 152 kt at 700, too brief for Cat 5 IMO)
Pablo - 50 kt
Roxanne - 100 kt
Sebastien - 55 kt
Tanya - 75 kt

[Hurricaneman]

Heres a complete list of storms from 1990 to 1995 and possible changes and more thought and reasoning have been put in this post

1990 to 1995

1990

TD1 35mph no change
Arthur 70mph no change
Bertha 85mph upgrade due to recon
Cesar 50mph no change
Diana 100mph no change
Edouard 45mph{Change to subtropical storm based on appearance}
Fran 40mph no change
Gustav 120mph no change
Hortense 65mph no change
Isidore 105mph change based on how dvorak tends to underestimate these small systems
TD11 45mph change based on organization
Josephine 85mph no change
Klaus 80mph no change
Lili 75mph no change
Marco 65mph no change
Nana 85mph no change


1991

Ana 50mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Bob 125mph Upgrade based on a 105mph hurricane hitting Block Island and it was clearly stronger east of the Delmarva and Recon had flight level winds of 140mph{Based on the 90% reduction}
TD4 35mph no change
TD5 35mph no change
Claudette 140mph upgrade based on satellite pics and the stadium effect of the eye
Danny 50mph no change
Erika 60mph no change
Fabian 45mph no change
TD10 30mph no change
Grace 90mph downgrade due to shallow convection and 980 pressure
Perfect Storm 85mph upgrade basically looked like Grace did with a larger wind field


1992

January 4 1992 noreaster 70mph upgrade to tropical storm due to appearance of convection all around an eye
STS1 50mph upgrade to TS from STS based on the core temp
TD1 35mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Andrew 175mph no change
Bonnie 110mph no change
Charley 110mph no change
Danielle 65mph no change
TD7 35mph no change
Earl 65mph no change
Frances 85mph no change


1993

TD1 downgraded to a non tropical low
Arlene 40mph no change
Bret 60mph no change
Cindy 45mph no change
Dennis 50mph no change
Emily 130mph based on 152mph flight level winds{based on 90% reduction}
Floyd 75mph no change
Gert 100mph no change
Harvey 75mph no change
TD10 35mph no change


1994
Alberto 65mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Beryl 60mph no change
Chris 80mph no change
TD5 35mph no change
Debby downgrade to tropical wave due to little evidence of a circulation
Ernesto 60mph no change
TD8 35mph no change
TD9 35mph no change
TD10 35mph no change
Florence 110mph no change
Gordon 80mph upgrade due to 90mph flight level winds{90% reduction}
December 23-24 Noreaster upgrade to 95mph hurricane due to appearance and convection around a central eye and wind gusts over 100 in SE Massachusetts which means it was probably stronger in the gulf stream by a good bit


1995

Allison 75mph no change
Barry 70mph no change
Chantal 70mph no change
Dean 45mph no change
Erin 100mph no change
TD9 35mph no change
Felix 150mph upgrade Based on recon
Gabrielle 70mph no change
Humberto 110mph no change
Iris 110mph no change
Jerry 40 mph no change
Karen 50mph no change
Luis 140mph no change
TD14 35mph no change
Marilyn 125mph upgrade based on recon finding 141mph flight level winds{90% reduction}
Noel 75mph no change
Opal 160mph upgrade due to appearance and recon
Pablo 60mph no change
Roxanne 115mph no change
Sebastien 65mph no change
Tanya 85mph no change

[Ptarmigan]

Lol its cool. Even I don't know everything that has made landfall in the US. I know somewhere there is a list of landfalling US hurricanes but I question its accuracy.

No problems. I sometimes think there are storms that are still missed as they find new ones in the past. While others, their strength is either over or under estimated.

[Ptarmigan]

Heres a complete list of storms from 1990 to 1995 and possible changes and more thought and reasoning have been put in this post

1990 to 1995

1990

TD1 35mph no change
Arthur 70mph no change
Bertha 85mph upgrade due to recon
Cesar 50mph no change
Diana 100mph no change
Edouard 45mph{Change to subtropical storm based on appearance}
Fran 40mph no change
Gustav 120mph no change
Hortense 65mph no change
Isidore 105mph change based on how dvorak tends to underestimate these small systems
TD11 45mph change based on organization
Josephine 85mph no change
Klaus 80mph no change
Lili 75mph no change
Marco 65mph no change
Nana 85mph no change


1991

Ana 50mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Bob 125mph Upgrade based on a 105mph hurricane hitting Block Island and it was clearly stronger east of the Delmarva and Recon had flight level winds of 140mph{Based on the 90% reduction}
TD4 35mph no change
TD5 35mph no change
Claudette 140mph upgrade based on satellite pics and the stadium effect of the eye
Danny 50mph no change
Erika 60mph no change
Fabian 45mph no change
TD10 30mph no change
Grace 90mph downgrade due to shallow convection and 980 pressure
Perfect Storm 85mph upgrade basically looked like Grace did with a larger wind field


1992

January 4 1992 noreaster 70mph upgrade to tropical storm due to appearance of convection all around an eye
STS1 50mph upgrade to TS from STS based on the core temp
TD1 35mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Andrew 175mph no change
Bonnie 110mph no change
Charley 110mph no change
Danielle 65mph no change
TD7 35mph no change
Earl 65mph no change
Frances 85mph no change


1993

TD1 downgraded to a non tropical low
Arlene 40mph no change
Bret 60mph no change
Cindy 45mph no change
Dennis 50mph no change
Emily 130mph based on 152mph flight level winds{based on 90% reduction}
Floyd 75mph no change
Gert 100mph no change
Harvey 75mph no change
TD10 35mph no change


1994
Alberto 65mph no change
TD2 35mph no change
Beryl 60mph no change
Chris 80mph no change
TD5 35mph no change
Debby downgrade to tropical wave due to little evidence of a circulation
Ernesto 60mph no change
TD8 35mph no change
TD9 35mph no change
TD10 35mph no change
Florence 110mph no change
Gordon 80mph upgrade due to 90mph flight level winds{90% reduction}
December 23-24 Noreaster upgrade to 95mph hurricane due to appearance and convection around a central eye and wind gusts over 100 in SE Massachusetts which means it was probably stronger in the gulf stream by a good bit


1995

Allison 75mph no change
Barry 70mph no change
Chantal 70mph no change
Dean 45mph no change
Erin 100mph no change
TD9 35mph no change
Felix 150mph upgrade Based on recon
Gabrielle 70mph no change
Humberto 110mph no change
Iris 110mph no change
Jerry 40 mph no change
Karen 50mph no change
Luis 140mph no change
TD14 35mph no change
Marilyn 125mph upgrade based on recon finding 141mph flight level winds{90% reduction}
Noel 75mph no change
Opal 160mph upgrade due to appearance and recon
Pablo 60mph no change
Roxanne 115mph no change
Sebastien 65mph no change
Tanya 85mph no change

Interesting that you have Opal as a Category 5 hurricane. I would not be surprised if it is one. If true, it would be the latest known Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Also, interesting that many storms in the early 1990s were not caught back than. It shows that they were likely more active than we thought. Hurricane Nana (1990) had hurricane force winds extending up to 20 nautical miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 70 nautical miles. It was a small storm.

ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt