Reanalysis questions

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CrazyC83
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Reanalysis questions

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:54 pm

I am looking up the reanalysis status of storms. I know it is done through 1930 and there is a thesis on the NOAA page for 1944 to 1953 with preliminary findings. I am wondering where they are in other years? I'm trying to research a lot of these myself from 1954 to 1999 (it appears around 2000 is when present data and relationships were adopted), and wonder how they are doing for those dates? Also 1931 to 1943 also I wonder if that is at work now.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#2 Postby StormClouds63 » Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:10 pm

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#3 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:09 pm

I know from someone who has contacts with the NHC that the next batch will go from 1931-1935 and will be out very soon, and that next year should go from 1936 to 1953 (since the 1944-53 is done preliminarily and they just have to review it).
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Re:

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:52 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:I know from someone who has contacts with the NHC that the next batch will go from 1931-1935 and will be out very soon, and that next year should go from 1936 to 1953 (since the 1944-53 is done preliminarily and they just have to review it).


That seems fairly reasonable. Once past there it gets a bit easier since more data is available to work from, especially since the satellite era.
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#5 Postby Hurricane Jed » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:24 pm

I'm looking forward to the 1931-35 reanalysis. The 1932 Cuba Hurricane is likely to get an upgrade to Category 5 and I heard there is a possibility that the Labor Day Hurricane may get its max sustained winds elevated to 200 mph.
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Re:

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:54 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:I'm looking forward to the 1931-35 reanalysis. The 1932 Cuba Hurricane is likely to get an upgrade to Category 5 and I heard there is a possibility that the Labor Day Hurricane may get its max sustained winds elevated to 200 mph.


The Labor Day storm is interesting - since given its size and pressure constraints, the winds had to be INSANE. But going above 160 kt would be quite difficult since there is no record of such in the Atlantic. The highest I believe Recon has ever reliably reported was 173 kt at flight-level, in Gilbert (supporting 156 kt at the surface, but I would think SFMR would have found higher then if it existed as it was in a RI phase - hence 160 kt is reasonable there).

So I'm not sure what the best peak intensity for that storm is? Based on a strict comparison to past small storms, they would be Cat 5 with pressures in the 920s and even 930s. So to get 892mb with that, you'd need winds at least 170-175 kt. But that would go into uncharted waters. I'd compromise and go 165 kt, still the highest in HURDAT, but not into the insanity levels.
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Re: Re:

#7 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricane Jed wrote:I'm looking forward to the 1931-35 reanalysis. The 1932 Cuba Hurricane is likely to get an upgrade to Category 5 and I heard there is a possibility that the Labor Day Hurricane may get its max sustained winds elevated to 200 mph.


The Labor Day storm is interesting - since given its size and pressure constraints, the winds had to be INSANE. But going above 160 kt would be quite difficult since there is no record of such in the Atlantic. The highest I believe Recon has ever reliably reported was 173 kt at flight-level, in Gilbert (supporting 156 kt at the surface, but I would think SFMR would have found higher then if it existed as it was in a RI phase - hence 160 kt is reasonable there).

So I'm not sure what the best peak intensity for that storm is? Based on a strict comparison to past small storms, they would be Cat 5 with pressures in the 920s and even 930s. So to get 892mb with that, you'd need winds at least 170-175 kt. But that would go into uncharted waters. I'd compromise and go 165 kt, still the highest in HURDAT, but not into the insanity levels.


I wouldn't be surprised if 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had 200 mph winds as I have read accounts of people being sandblasted to death. :eek: :eek:
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Re: Re:

#8 Postby Hurricane Jed » Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:37 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Hurricane Jed wrote:I'm looking forward to the 1931-35 reanalysis. The 1932 Cuba Hurricane is likely to get an upgrade to Category 5 and I heard there is a possibility that the Labor Day Hurricane may get its max sustained winds elevated to 200 mph.


The Labor Day storm is interesting - since given its size and pressure constraints, the winds had to be INSANE. But going above 160 kt would be quite difficult since there is no record of such in the Atlantic. The highest I believe Recon has ever reliably reported was 173 kt at flight-level, in Gilbert (supporting 156 kt at the surface, but I would think SFMR would have found higher then if it existed as it was in a RI phase - hence 160 kt is reasonable there).

So I'm not sure what the best peak intensity for that storm is? Based on a strict comparison to past small storms, they would be Cat 5 with pressures in the 920s and even 930s. So to get 892mb with that, you'd need winds at least 170-175 kt. But that would go into uncharted waters. I'd compromise and go 165 kt, still the highest in HURDAT, but not into the insanity levels.


I wouldn't be surprised if 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had 200 mph winds as I have read accounts of people being sandblasted to death. :eek: :eek:



I've read that too. That might be one of the reasons they want to upgrade the winds to 200 mph. Does anyone know of any other hurricanes where people were sandblasted to death and how strong would winds have to be to do that?
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#9 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Feb 11, 2012 1:52 am

I'm pretty sure that the 1780 Great Hurricane sandblasted people to death.
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#10 Postby Hurricane Jed » Sun Feb 12, 2012 5:19 pm

I know this is changing subject a little but it just now came to mind. 1933 who thinks they find more storms?
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Re:

#11 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:24 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:I know this is changing subject a little but it just now came to mind. 1933 who thinks they find more storms?


I heard from someone who worked at NHC last year that they have 24 storms.
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Re:

#12 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:30 am

Hurricane Jed wrote:I know this is changing subject a little but it just now came to mind. 1933 who thinks they find more storms?


I would not be surprised if 1933 had more storms. I think 1933 is comparable to 2005.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#13 Postby MGC » Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:18 pm

Yea, 2005 had the advantage of satellite.....MGC
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Re: Re:

#14 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:22 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Hurricane Jed wrote:I know this is changing subject a little but it just now came to mind. 1933 who thinks they find more storms?


I would not be surprised if 1933 had more storms. I think 1933 is comparable to 2005.


Nor would I. Hurricane 8 was the most easterly forming storm that season so its likely the find or have found short lived storms even closer to Africa. I've looked at an article by Christopher Landsea and he makes a good point with this diagram showing the the lack of tropical cyclones in the open Atlantic in 1933 compared to the 2005 season.
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#15 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:51 pm

anyone know if they have released 1931-1935 yet?
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Re:

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:03 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:anyone know if they have released 1931-1935 yet?


not yet !
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#17 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:46 am

I looked at the Re-Analysis and noticed some interesting things.
1886 Indianola Hurricane radius of maximum wind (RMW) of 15 nautical miles (nm).
1900 Galveston Hurricane had RMW of 14 nm.
There is no radius of closed isobar (ROCI) for them.

1915 Galveston Hurricane had RMW of 25 nm and was quite large with ROCI of 325 nm.
1919 Florida/Texas Hurricane had RMW of 35 nm and ROCI of 250 nm.
1945 Texas Hurricane had RMW of 20 nm and ROCI of 150 nm. A rather small storm.
1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane had RMW of 20 nm in Florida and 25 nm in Louisiana. ROCI of 275 nm over Florida and ROCI of 250 nm over Louisiana.
1949 Texas Hurricane had RMW of 15 nm and ROCI of 200 nm.

Andrew had RMW of 15 nm and ROCI of 125 from Best Track and closest to landfall.
Katrina had RMW of 20 nm and ROCI of 300 nm from Best Track and closest to landfall.
Ike had RMW of 30 nm and ROCI of 325 nm from Best Track and closest to landfall.

ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#18 Postby MGC » Sun Apr 08, 2012 8:01 pm

The Labor Day Hurricane will remain the most intense hurricane to strike the USA in modern history. I would not be surprised if the winds were near 200mph given the central pressure and small area of total destruction. If you are ever in the Keys stop at the memorial. There is a crypt there containing the remains of many killed by the hurricane......MGC
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 08, 2012 9:27 pm

MGC wrote:The Labor Day Hurricane will remain the most intense hurricane to strike the USA in modern history. I would not be surprised if the winds were near 200mph given the central pressure and small area of total destruction. If you are ever in the Keys stop at the memorial. There is a crypt there containing the remains of many killed by the hurricane......MGC


How high do they go? The pressure and size call for a dizzying number like 170 to 180 kt. But that would be going into uncharted territory. I'd put it, conservatively, at 165 kt - the highest ever in the Atlantic still, but not going into the realm of the unknown. It was definitely the most insane hurricane to ever make landfall - it would be like if Wilma made landfall at its peak intensity (I wish there was an SFMR in Wilma at that time, I think it would find winds even stronger than it found).
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#20 Postby StormClouds63 » Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:22 pm

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

Read the summary on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane chapter. It says that the Labor Day storm was easily a "category 6" hurricane if the SS scale included such a ranking.

I believe the most anticipated reanalysis yet to come is on Camille (1969). Will it stay a category 5? I ask that question based on the following:

http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com/2010/08/hurricane-camille-41-years-later.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/camille1969/wind.html
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