Reanalysis questions

[HurricaneBill]

Carla produced a wind gust of 178 mph. If that was a surface wind, that would equate to a sustained wind of around 110KT, a high end Category 3.

[CrazyC83]

Digging up an old topic, but I think 115 kt was Carla's peak intensity - not 150 kt - and that it was right at landfall. My thinking is the 931mb pressure at Port Lavaca might have been just outside the eye and so 929mb is my estimated landfall pressure. The HUGE size of the storm throughout suggests a much lower wind estimate than the standard P-W relationship (which is about 130 kt for a 929mb storm). At the times in the Gulf where Carla is listed as a Cat 5 now, I think it was a Cat 3 with 105-110 kt winds (or less perhaps).

[Hurricanehink]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html - the reanalysis is now available from 1936-1940. Highlights include a new hurricane in January 1938, a December tropical storm in 1936, and the Long Island hurricane of 1938 being a major hurricane at landfall in New England.

Edit: changed New Zealand to New England

[galaxy401]

New Zealand? That's a significant storm.

They kept the New England Hurricane as a cat 5 at peak intensity.

[Hurricanehink]

New Zealand? That's a significant storm.

They kept the New England Hurricane as a cat 5 at peak intensity.

Haha, oops! But what was interesting about the New England hurricane is that there isn't much evidence for keeping it a C5. The lowest recorded pressure was 938 mbar.

It is of note that the original HURDAT assessment of a 140 kt peak intensity is not directly supported by any data. However, the current data is not sufficient to justify changing this, but considerable uncertainty remains as to the peak intensity obtained by this major hurricane.

They also base that it was a major hurricane at New England (not Zealand) landfall on a pressure of 946 mbar with calm winds, which they then lowered to 941 mbar. However, Atlantic City experienced calm winds during Sandy (from the remnants of its eye) and had a pressure of 948 mbar. They also argue that the 1938 storm became extratropical not too long after landfall. I might be missing something, but I'm not sure I agree with their assessment of the storm at landfall, solely based on what happened during Sandy.

[CrazyC83]

I need to go through them all.

I would have the 1938 storm at 90 kt for landfall intensity, and extratropical at the time, given all the data (pressure 941mb). Smaller than Sandy but still a huge storm. As for the Cat 5 peak intensity, there is no basis to drop it down, but there is no data supporting it either. I'd have brought it down based on the ship pressures though, with an estimated minimum pressure around 930mb on September 20. However, given the large size by then, the peak intensity I would have put at 120 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Another interesting storm:

Storm 3 of 1936 - hit Texas as a solid Cat 1 less than a day after development, an early version of 2007's Humberto, listed at 70 kt (more likely 75-80 kt given the size). 1936 overall was quite similar to 2012.

[CrazyC83]

Using the revised HURDAT2 format, here is how I would have reanalyzed the 1938 storm:

AL041938, UNNAMED, 51,
19380909, 1200, , TD, 12.8N, 19.3W, 30, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380909, 1800, , TD, 13.0N, 20.3W, 30, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380910, 0000, , TS, 13.2N, 21.3W, 35, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380910, 0600, , TS, 13.4N, 23.3W, 35, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380910, 1200, , TS, 13.6N, 24.3W, 40, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380910, 1800, , TS, 13.8N, 25.3W, 45, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380911, 0000, , TS, 14.0N, 26.3W, 55, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380911, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 27.4W, 55, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380911, 1200, , TS, 14.5N, 28.5W, 55, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380911, 1800, , TS, 14.7N, 29.7W, 50, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380912, 0000, , TS, 14.9N, 31.0W, 50, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380912, 0600, , TS, 15.2N, 32.4W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380912, 1200, , TS, 15.5N, 33.7W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380912, 1800, , TS, 15.9N, 34.7W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380913, 0000, , TS, 16.4N, 35.7W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380913, 0600, , TS, 16.9N, 36.7W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380913, 1200, , TS, 17.2N, 37.7W, 45, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380913, 1800, , TS, 17.3N, 38.8W, 50, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380914, 0000, , TS, 17.3N, 40.0W, 50, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380914, 0600, , TS, 17.4N, 41.2W, 55, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380914, 1200, , TS, 17.5N, 42.3W, 55, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380914, 1800, , TS, 17.6N, 43.3W, 60, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380915, 0000, , HU, 17.7N, 44.3W, 65, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380915, 0600, , HU, 17.8N, 45.3W, 70, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380915, 1200, , HU, 17.9N, 46.3W, 75, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380915, 1800, , HU, 18.1N, 47.3W, 80, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380916, 0000, , HU, 18.3N, 48.3W, 85, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380916, 0600, , HU, 18.6N, 49.4W, 90, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380916, 1200, , HU, 18.9N, 50.5W, 95, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380916, 1800, , HU, 19.5N, 51.6W, 100, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380917, 0000, , HU, 20.5N, 52.7W, 110, 948, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380917, 0600, , HU, 21.0N, 53.8W, 115, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380917, 1200, , HU, 21.2N, 55.0W, 115, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380917, 1800, , HU, 21.3N, 56.5W, 115, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380918, 0000, , HU, 21.3N, 58.0W, 110, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380918, 0600, , HU, 21.4N, 59.6W, 110, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380918, 1200, , HU, 21.7N, 61.5W, 115, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380918, 1800, , HU, 22.2N, 63.5W, 120, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380919, 0000, , HU, 22.8N, 65.5W, 120, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380919, 0600, , HU, 23.5N, 67.5W, 120, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380919, 1200, , HU, 24.2N, 69.5W, 120, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380919, 1800, , HU, 24.8N, 71.1W, 120, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380920, 0000, , HU, 25.2N, 72.4W, 115, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380920, 0600, , HU, 25.8N, 73.4W, 115, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380920, 1200, , HU, 26.7N, 74.3W, 115, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380920, 1800, , HU, 28.0N, 74.8W, 110, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 0000, , HU, 29.8N, 74.9W, 105, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 0600, , HU, 32.2N, 74.4W, 105, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 1200, , HU, 35.2N, 73.1W, 100, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 1800, , EX, 39.3N, 72.9W, 95, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 2000, L, EX, 40.7N, 72.9W, 90, 941, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380921, 2100, L, EX, 40.7N, 72.9W, 85, 945, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380922, 0000, , EX, 43.4N, 73.1W, 65, 966, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380922, 0600, , EX, 46.5N, 74.5W, 50, 977, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380922, 1200, , EX, 47.7N, 77.3W, 40, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380922, 1800, , EX, 47.0N, 77.8W, 35, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19380923, 0000, , EX, 45.0N, 77.0W, 30, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,

Some of the basis:

1) The early increases are based on the ship data and considerable distance on the weaker side, I assumed it was a stronger storm. Also 1000mb (beforehand) is 45 kt with Dvorak.

2) I treated the 958mb peripheral as close, so used 948mb as the pressure at that point - winds 110 kt.

3) I treated most of the ship pressure data as near central and added a 940mb pressure point. The lowest pressure analyzed is 935mb but may have been in the low 930s earlier. All that suggests a peak intensity of 120 kt, not 140.

4) As previously mentioned, lowered the landfall intensity from 105 to 90 kt.

[Iune]

The search for assigned TC names might hold up 1949 or lead to an exclusion of the 1947-1948 names "found". I hope they're able to find the 1949 names somewhere.

Is there any location for the '47-'48 names? I've been curious as to how they named (was it just like 1950-52?)

[Hurricane Jed]

Per Christopher Landsea, the hope is to release 1941-1945 sometime before June 1st.

[CrazyC83]

Per Christopher Landsea, the hope is to release 1941-1945 sometime before June 1st.

Interesting, and I would expect 1946-53 to follow quickly thereafter.

[Hurricane Jed]

Maybe. It still seems like they want to follow the 5 year format. But this may just be because 1941-1943 were not part of that preliminary paper.

[Hurricane Jed]

More storms for me to memorize too. I have the entirety of HURDAT memorized. Number of storms per season, their names if any and the peak category strength they achieved. Handy knowledge to have sometimes.

[CrazyC83]

I know the remarks for 1941-45 are posted but the final data is not yet available.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comments.htm

[Hurricane Jed]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1941.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1942.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1943.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1944.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_1945.html

Also a May US Hurricane landfall in 1863 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 12-00171.1

Have fun folks. Storm #2 for 1941 is a very very interesting read.

[CrazyC83]

2-1941 upgraded from a Cat 1 to a strong Cat 3 with a 942mb pressure (possibly conservative). More likely IMO it was in the 930s.

Also the 1944 Great Atlantic storm they mention had someone wanting to record a 909mb pressure but they couldn't find the proof of it.

[Hurricane Jed]

Lol they did mention it was conservative. Limited obs with landfall where the eye came ashore was what likely prevented them from going lower on the pressure. Matagorda County where it came ashore is not the most populous of places.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Lol they did mention it was conservative. Limited obs with landfall where the eye came ashore was what likely prevented them from going lower on the pressure. Matagorda County where it came ashore is not the most populous of places.

It seemed to be a large storm though so Cat 3 is reasonable even if the pressure was around 935 or so.

[Hurricane Jed]

Never said I disagreed with the Cat 3 ranking, just given limited obs of where it made landfall that's likely why they didn't go lower on the pressure. And yes if the pressure were around 935mb that could still constitute as a Cat 3 but highly unlikely. 2002's Isidore had a pressure of 934mb and Cat 3's with pressure in the 930's are pretty rare, like only around 5 have done so.

[Ptarmigan]

2-1941 upgraded from a Cat 1 to a strong Cat 3 with a 942mb pressure (possibly conservative). More likely IMO it was in the 930s.

Also the 1944 Great Atlantic storm they mention had someone wanting to record a 909mb pressure but they couldn't find the proof of it.

Hurricane #2 (1941) was quite a large storm. It had RMW of 20 nautical miles.