Reanalysis questions

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supercane4867
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#181 Postby supercane4867 » Sun May 04, 2014 6:10 pm

Animated gif created for the Camille radar loop

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Re: Reanalysis questions

#182 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 05, 2014 7:48 am

Note that on the Camille loop the radar is not properly located, so the grid is off. Margie Kieper said that she didn't learn until after she spent 60 hours putting the loop together that the radar was NOT located at the airport in 1969, it was located close to downtown New Orleans. Therefore, the grid is off 10-15 miles. This makes a big difference with respect to the location that the eyewall hits the MS coast.
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#183 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue May 06, 2014 6:47 pm

I thank you for posting an animated gif version of the loop Supercane4867, deficiencies aside, it is still interesting. 8-)
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#184 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue May 06, 2014 10:59 pm

Looks a bit like Hurricane Katrina. Camille and Katrina made landfall in almost the same location.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#185 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Jun 07, 2014 8:06 pm

I tried matching up frames from the radar loop to the satellite image of what I believe was around Camille's peak. What do you think?

Image

From both the radar loop and the satellite image, it looks like she had a tiny eye (not sure what constitutes a true pinhole eye) and a larger eyewall surrounding it.

Also, from the satellite image, she looks pretty big. I looked up her diameter of hurricane force winds and this article says it was 60 miles from the center. Compared to storms like Ike and Carla, (both had hurricane force winds extending over 100 nm from the center) she was small, but compared to a storm like Iris, which had hurricane force winds extending only about 15 miles from the center, she was pretty big. So I guess that would be medium-sized. :lol:
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#186 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 16, 2014 3:56 pm

I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.

I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).
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Re:

#187 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.

I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).


NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
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Re: Re:

#188 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:56 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.

I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).


NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them


From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.
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Re: Re:

#189 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:08 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.

I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).


NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them


From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.


I would not be surprised if there are more storms that went undetected because of how storms were classified back than. I suspect the number will go up if those boxes are opened. Some seasons that looked inactive in satellite era like 1962, 1977, and 1983 could have more storms than previously thought.
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Re: Re:

#190 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:39 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them


From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.


I would not be surprised if there are more storms that went undetected because of how storms were classified back than. I suspect the number will go up if those boxes are opened. Some seasons that looked inactive in satellite era like 1962, 1977, and 1983 could have more storms than previously thought.


Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.
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Re: Re:

#191 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 18, 2014 6:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them


Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.


The Dvorak technique was in its infancy at best during those days. Likely anything they view as a T2.5 in a modern reanalysis they would consider and a T3.0 in a modern reanalysis they would almost certainly add to HURDAT. I would think it would *mostly* only affect the number of weak storms. I think in the early days they were mostly looking for eye formations, and those don't usually appear until at least a T4.0 - and as high as a T5.0 - in Dvorak classifications.
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Re: Re:

#192 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
The Dvorak technique was in its infancy at best during those days. Likely anything they view as a T2.5 in a modern reanalysis they would consider and a T3.0 in a modern reanalysis they would almost certainly add to HURDAT. I would think it would *mostly* only affect the number of weak storms. I think in the early days they were mostly looking for eye formations, and those don't usually appear until at least a T4.0 - and as high as a T5.0 - in Dvorak classifications.


I believe the eye pattern in Dvorak starts at T4.0. Also another thing, they probably did not ignore Dvoark constraints during RI. A big problem in 1980's EPAC HURDAT.
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Re: Re:

#193 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.


1962-Winter of 1961-1962 and 1962-1963 had cool Neutral that is borderline La Nina.
1977-Winter of 1976-1978 is weak El Nino and 1977-1978 is weak El Nino. A rare back to back El Nino.
1983-Winter of 1982-1983 had strong El Nino and 1983-1984 is moderate La Nina.

1962 had cool PDO, while 1977 and 1983 had warm PDO.

I have noticed hurricane seasons following El Nino being active.
1954
1964
1988
1995
1998
2003
2005
2010

Some of the most active occurred following El Nino.
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Re:

#194 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:17 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.

I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).


http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/TIROS/

You'll have to do a bit of digging though.
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#195 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:57 am

my masters thesis is now available online!

"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#196 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:49 am

@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.
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Re:

#197 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:52 am

HURAKAN wrote:my masters thesis is now available online!

"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/


Wow I clicked this thread to ask when this would be published...

edit: interesting, the Cat 5's of 1960-61 were all lowered.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#198 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:03 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.


I didn't work on those hurricanes, nor Hazel, Donna or Carla. They were already reanalyzed.
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Re: Re:

#199 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:04 pm

Hammy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:my masters thesis is now available online!

"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"

http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/


Wow I clicked this thread to ask when this would be published...

edit: interesting, the Cat 5's of 1960-61 were all lowered.


Ethel had it coming! lol
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#200 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.


I didn't work on those hurricanes, nor Hazel, Donna or Carla. They were already reanalyzed.


Yeah they've been for awhile now, but it hasn't been made official in HURDAT yet grrrr. :grr:
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