Reanalysis questions

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Hybridstorm_November2001
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#221 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu May 14, 2015 3:22 pm

@ CrazyC83 thanks
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#222 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu May 14, 2015 3:47 pm

Storm #14 apparently Irene now for 1953.
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#223 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu May 14, 2015 4:26 pm

Im doing my own reanalysis of all systems and the changes I would make from 1990 to 2014

2014
Bertha downgrade to 75mph
Gonzalo upgrade to 150mph

2013
Andrea upgrade to 70mph
Dorian upgrade to 70mph
Karen upgrade to 70mph

2012
Isaac upgrade to 90mph

2011
Sean upgrade to 70mph

2010
Alex upgrade to 115mph
Igor upgrade to 160mph

2009
Grace upgrade to 70mph

2008
Fay upgrade to 75mph

2007
Erin over Oklahoma upgrade to 65mph
Felix downgrade to 165mph
Gabrielle downgrade to 50mph

2006
no change

2005
Arlene upgrade to 75mph
Dennis upgrade to 155mph
Wilma upgrade to 190mph

2004
no changes

2003
no changes

2002
Edouard downgrade to 60mph

2001
no change

2000
no change

1999
Bret downgrade to 135mph
Floyd upgrade to 160mph

1998
Hermine upgrade to 50mph

1997
no change

1996
Fran upgrade to 125mph
Josephine upgrade to 75mph

1995
TD6 upgrade to 40mph
Felix upgrade to 155mph
Opal upgrade to 160mph

1994
Debby removed
December 23-24 noreaster upgraded to hurricane 85mph

1993
TD1 upgraded to 45mph
Arlene upgraded to 45mph

1992
January 4 noreaster upgraded to 70mph ts

1991
Bob upgrade to 125mph
Grace downgrade to 85mph

1990
TD11 upgrade to 45mph
Marco upgrade to 75mph


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Re:

#224 Postby Hammy » Thu May 14, 2015 5:25 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Im doing my own reanalysis of all systems and the changes I would make from 1990 to 2014


I'm doing a reanalysis of my own using recon data/satellite estimates

1990: no changes, though I agree with yours that TD11 was probably a tropical storm (I haven't gone through many of the depressions as of yet)

1991
Bob 120mph
Grace: I see no reason to downgrade, as recon reported surface winds "near 100kts" with 111kt flight winds

1992
addition of hurricane off east coast on Sep 12 and subtropical storm in Gulf in early October

1994
Chris 85 mph (based on satellite estimates)
Debby I see no reason for removal given there was a closed circulation
addition of December subtropical storm/hurricane and October subtropical storm (the latter listed as one by HPC)

1995
Opal 155-160 mph

1996
Fran 120 mph
Marco 80mph based on pressure and 89kt flight winds

1997
addition of two subtropical storms near Europe on Oct 3 and Oct 24

1999
Irene 115 mph
addition of 91L in July as TD and a tropical storm between Floyd and Gert in mid-September

2000
addition of Oct 1-3 SS off east coast, Aug 30 SS near NC, and TS off northeast on Aug 12

2001
Barry 75mph based on several surface reports at the time of landfall


2003
Claudette: iffy that it could've been 100 mph at landfall
addition of Nov 3-5 SS

2005
Dennis 155 mph
addition of SS near NC on June 25

2006
addition of SS on Jun 27 near NC

2007
Erin: inclusion as tropical system (vs remnant low) over Oklahoma considering the circulation held together fairly well to that point
addition of early Oct NE Atlantic SS

2008
addition of Sep 24-26 SS off SE coast

2009
addition of May SS in Gulf and June SS near Azores

2010
Alex: agree that it may have been 115
addition of early July TS in Gulf

2012
Gordon: may have been 115 mph as per satellite estimates
addition of May SS near Azores

2013
Andrea 70 mph
Dorian 65 mph
Jerry 60 mph
Lorenzo may have been >60 mph given satellite appearance and eye on microwave

2014
Cristobal may have been at least 100 mph based on satellite appearance and NASA drone data
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#225 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu May 14, 2015 9:46 pm

Hammy, I took a second look at Grace in 1991 and even though the pressure is really high or recon missed the lowest pressure for this but this one may need to actually be upgraded to a 115mph major hurricane based on recon

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Re: Reanalysis questions

#226 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu May 14, 2015 10:48 pm

Now on with the show 1969 through 1989

1969
Anna downgrade to 50mph
Francilia downgrade to 105mph

1970
Becky Downgrade to 50mph
TD19 upgrad to 45mph

1971
Edith downgrade to 150mph

1972
Dawn downgraded to 65mph

1973
Alice downgraded to 80mph
TD11 upgraded to 40mph

1974
Becky downgraded to 105mph
Carmen upgraded to 155mph
Gertrude downgraded to 65mph
TD17 upgraded to 40mph

1975
Amy upgraded to 75mph

1976
Candice upgraded to 105mph
Dottie upgraded to 60mph

1977
Anita downgraded to 165mph

1978
no change

1979
David downgraded to 165mph
mid september TD upgraded to 45mph

1980
Allen downgraded to 180mph
Jeanne downgraded to 85mph

1981
TD2 upgraded to 40mph
Bret upgraded to 75mph
Floyd downgraded to 105mph
Gert downgraded to 85mph
TD13 upgraded to 60mph

1982
Ernesto downgraded to 60mph

1983
No changes

1984
TD3 upgraded to 45mph

1985
Gloria upgraded to 160mph

1986
TD6 upgraded to 40mph

1987
TD1 upgraded to 40mph

1988
TD5 upgraded to 40mph
TD10 upgraded to 40mph
Keith upgraded to 75mph

1989
no change

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Re: Reanalysis questions

#227 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat May 16, 2015 12:02 pm

1951 to 1955 has some interesting outcomes from re-analysis.
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#228 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun May 17, 2015 9:09 am

I'm very interested in the eventual reanalysis for Hurricane Celia in 1970. It was rated a high end category 3 upon landfall along the central Texas coast, but I could definitely see an upgrade based on some of the wind gusts observed.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#229 Postby tatertawt24 » Sun May 17, 2015 8:47 pm

I'm pulling for Celia to be upgraded to cat 4. I know the severe damage and the extreme wind gusts observed were from microbursts (or possibly mini-swirls) but for some reason I still have trouble believing it was only a 3. It was a really, really, strange storm.
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#230 Postby galaxy401 » Mon May 18, 2015 4:50 pm

Couple interesting hurricanes for 1956-1960. I wonder if Cleo might get downgraded to lower intensity (it was at least a 4). Two others will be Donna and Ethel in 1960. It will be interesting to see how much did Ethel actually strengthen and weaken and how fast. I remember seeing a couple years ago that Donna might be downgraded to a 4.
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#231 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 18, 2015 4:55 pm

Any estimates on when re-analysis will be finished?
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#232 Postby Andrew92 » Mon May 18, 2015 9:20 pm

I'd also like to see some EPAC re-analysis at some point. Or are they doing the Atlantic first, and planning to come back? I just can't believe that the intensities of lots of storms from the 1950s or 1960s.

There are two from 1968, Naomi and Pauline, that I would really be interested in to see what they find, if they get there. Also Irah from 1973 and Paul from 1982.

-Andrew92
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Re:

#233 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 18, 2015 10:35 pm

Andrew92 wrote:I'd also like to see some EPAC re-analysis at some point. Or are they doing the Atlantic first, and planning to come back? I just can't believe that the intensities of lots of storms from the 1950s or 1960s.

There are two from 1968, Naomi and Pauline, that I would really be interested in to see what they find, if they get there. Also Irah from 1973 and Paul from 1982.

-Andrew92


They've said they would be dong an EPAC re-analysis. However, I highly doubt it's a priority.

I've looked into this matter a bit on my own time. The 1980's intensities need to be fixed, and IMO Olivia 82 and Kiko 83 and Max 87 were Cat 5's. I also think Paul 1982 was a TS at its first landfall and a Cat 3 at its last.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#234 Postby Hammy » Tue May 19, 2015 2:05 am

Will the reanalysis go through the 90s or beyond, or will it stop with the early 1980s? There are several possible Atlantic storms from the early 1990s that I would be interested in seeing a revisited take on.
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Re:

#235 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue May 19, 2015 8:35 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Any estimates on when re-analysis will be finished?


It's been five years reanalyzed ever since they did 1915 to 1920 in 2008. That's one per year on average, so it would be at 1980 by 2020, 2000 by 2024, and up to date by 2030. That's assuming it doesn't change, and they go all the way forward, both of which I highly doubt. I could see them doing just scattered storms at some point in the 80s or 90s.
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Re: Re:

#236 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 19, 2015 8:37 am

Hurricanehink wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Any estimates on when re-analysis will be finished?


It's been five years reanalyzed ever since they did 1915 to 1920 in 2008. That's one per year on average, so it would be at 1980 by 2020, 2000 by 2024, and up to date by 2030. That's assuming it doesn't change, and they go all the way forward, both of which I highly doubt. I could see them doing just scattered storms at some point in the 80s or 90s.


Weren't they suppose to start doing 10 per year?
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Re: Re:

#237 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue May 19, 2015 9:38 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Any estimates on when re-analysis will be finished?


It's been five years reanalyzed ever since they did 1915 to 1920 in 2008. That's one per year on average, so it would be at 1980 by 2020, 2000 by 2024, and up to date by 2030. That's assuming it doesn't change, and they go all the way forward, both of which I highly doubt. I could see them doing just scattered storms at some point in the 80s or 90s.


Weren't they suppose to start doing 10 per year?


I know that the project has been relying on master theses doing 10 years at a time (44-53 and 54-64). Even with that, the reanalysis committee still has to parse through all of that data.
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Re: Re:

#238 Postby Andrew92 » Tue May 19, 2015 9:22 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Any estimates on when re-analysis will be finished?


It's been five years reanalyzed ever since they did 1915 to 1920 in 2008. That's one per year on average, so it would be at 1980 by 2020, 2000 by 2024, and up to date by 2030. That's assuming it doesn't change, and they go all the way forward, both of which I highly doubt. I could see them doing just scattered storms at some point in the 80s or 90s.


Here is the full timeline in chronological order. This is only for period re-analyses (such as 1951-1955), not those of individual storms like Andrew or Camille.

2000: Added 1851-1885
2003: 1886-1910
2005: 1911-1914
2008: 1915-1920
March 2009: 1921-1925
December 2010: 1926-1930
May 2012: 1931-1935
December 2012: 1936-1940
June 2013: 1941-1945
March 2014: 1946-1950
May 2015: 1951-1955

If you think it's painstakingly slow now, think of what it was like ten years ago or so, when we waited years for just a few years' worth of re-analyses to come out. I don't know when in 2008 the 1915-1920 re-analysis was complete, but suffice it to say it probably was in the first half of that year.

Even after a year's wait between 1946-1950 and 1951-1955, they are still moving faster than they were ten years ago. Certainly some papers and Master's theses have contributed, but I also think some of it is they have gotten better at analyzing the data as time has gone on.

It may be early 2016 when we get to see the 1956-1960 full re-analysis. I recommend in the meantime, just watch this season, even if it is quiet in the Atlantic. It still does only take one to make a season, after all. However, if the Atlantic feels like watching paint dry, I also suggest watching other basins this year. I don't really have much to say about typhoons or Indian Ocean cyclones, but that doesn't mean I'm not interested in paying attention when there is down time in this part of the world.

And if there is absolutely nothing or watching other basins just isn't for you, and you want to conjecture about the 1956-1960 re-analysis, I suggest you check out Sandy Delgado/HURAKAN's Master's thesis. For those who don't know, you can find it on the AOML's re-analysis front page by the date January 15. His thesis also goes up through 1963. True, it's not official, but it's still very interesting and can give you clues of what to expect in the next re-analysis.

That said, I really do wonder if another thesis or paper is being done for 1964 to sometime in the 1970s. I'm especially interested to see the following:

- Hilda's intensity at landfall in Louisiana in 1964 (could see a downgrade to Category 2 there)
- Both storms named Doria, I suspect both were tropical storms at landfall in 1967 and 1971, but the one in 1971 did cause quite a bit of damage on the East Coast.
- Seeing if Gerda from 1969 gets the 1953 Carol-like treatment and is downgraded to a non-US hit. Effects and damage were very minimal in Maine, though I believe it would still count if the center pass just barely in the US.
- If Celia remains a Category 3 or is bumped to a Category 4 in 1970
- If Ginger remains a hurricane or is downgraded to a tropical storm in 1971
- This will probably remain a tropical storm, but Delia in 1973 has intrigued me, and initial landfall pressure was 984 mb. I'm not entirely ruling a hurricane out here, even though damage was very minimal.
- The statuses of Belle and Babe as hurricanes. I get a feeling Belle will stand, as it caused a fair amount of damage for a Category 1. Certainly some of that can be attributed to hitting a heavily-populated area. But her pressure was high for a New England hurricane at landfall, in the 980s. And the TCR (or Preliminary Report, as they were called then) for Babe does cast doubt about her status as a hurricane, calling the upgrade an action of least regret. Could definitely see a downgrade there.

-Andrew92
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#239 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 19, 2015 11:23 pm

1956-60 shouldn't take too long I wouldn't think, since most of it is done and all they have to do is make revisions based off the theses. I think we will see it this fall personally.

Some of the late 60s and early 70s storms should see changes I agree (mostly downward). Although I do agree Celia was probably a Cat 4 (my guess is 125 kt, although that may be a tad high for the 945mb pressure...Celia was a small and fast moving storm though)
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Re:

#240 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed May 20, 2015 12:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Some highlights of 1951-55:

.....* Net decrease of three US major hurricanes - Edna 1954 (MA), Connie and Ione 1955 (NC) all downgraded to Cat 2....


Okay the findings make sense now that I've had a chance to review them. I was confused because I knew the data supported Edna being a cat. 3 while south of Cape Cod, which is still supported by the data. 95 Kt seems right for the first landfall in MA, as it is only just below cat. 3 strength.
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