Reanalysis questions

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Re: Reanalysis questions

#341 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:59 pm

Hammy wrote:How late are they going to go with the reanalysis? There's quite a few systems in the 1980s that I feel should be added.


Even in the 1990s and 2000s, there are storms worth reanalyzing.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#342 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:14 pm

That hurricane in 1962 after Thanksgiving was likely a very interesting storm. It erratically tracked off the east coast...I would have to suspect it was stuck between an unseasonably strong Bermuda High and what might have been a high-latitude ridge that held up over the continent for a week, in an Omega Block pattern.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#343 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:56 pm

Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#344 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hammy wrote:How late are they going to go with the reanalysis? There's quite a few systems in the 1980s that I feel should be added.


Even in the 1990s and 2000s, there are storms worth reanalyzing.


Some of the hurricanes in 2010s are worth reanalyzing. Their intensity is likely underestimated.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#345 Postby Hammy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:59 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.


I hope so because this one (TD in 1970) has been on my radar for decades ever since I started reading about past seasons.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#346 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:09 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Staying on the topic of historic storms, here is my reanalysis (from my viewpoint) of 1991's Hurricane Bob, another significant storm of that era.

AL031991, BOB, 55,
19910816, 0000, , TD, 25.6N, 74.3W, 25, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910816, 0600, , TD, 25.7N, 74.9W, 30, 1012, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910816, 1200, , TS, 25.9N, 75.4W, 35, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910816, 1800, , TS, 26.4N, 75.8W, 40, 1005, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910817, 0000, , TS, 27.1N, 76.2W, 45, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910817, 0600, , TS, 27.8N, 76.5W, 50, 998, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910817, 1200, , TS, 28.4N, 76.9W, 50, 993, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910817, 1800, , TS, 29.0N, 77.1W, 55, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910818, 0000, , HU, 29.7N, 77.0W, 65, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910818, 0600, , HU, 30.5N, 76.9W, 75, 976, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910818, 1200, , HU, 31.5N, 76.6W, 90, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910818, 1800, , HU, 33.0N, 76.1W, 95, 961, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910819, 0000, , HU, 34.6N, 75.3W, 105, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910819, 0600, , HU, 36.5N, 74.5W, 100, 950, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910819, 1200, , HU, 38.9N, 73.0W, 95, 955, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910819, 1720, L, HU, 41.2N, 71.6W, 90, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910819, 1800, L, HU, 41.4N, 71.4W, 90, 963, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910820, 0000, , HU, 43.8N, 69.6W, 70, 976, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910820, 0130, L, HU, 44.1N, 69.1W, 65, 979, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910820, 0600, , TS, 45.6N, 67.6W, 55, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910820, 1200, , TS, 47.0N, 65.5W, 45, 998, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910820, 1800, , EX, 48.4N, 61.9W, 40, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910821, 0000, , EX, 49.8N, 58.3W, 40, 1008, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910821, 0600, , EX, 50.9N, 54.9W, 40, 1008, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910821, 1200, , EX, 51.6N, 51.4W, 35, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910821, 1800, , EX, 51.9N, 47.3W, 30, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910822, 0000, , EX, 51.9N, 42.8W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910822, 0600, , EX, 51.5N, 38.3W, 35, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910822, 1200, , EX, 50.7N, 34.1W, 40, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910822, 1800, , EX, 49.3N, 30.3W, 40, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910823, 0000, , EX, 47.7N, 26.9W, 40, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910823, 0600, , EX, 46.3N, 23.9W, 40, 996, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910823, 1200, , EX, 45.3N, 21.4W, 35, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910823, 1800, , EX, 44.2N, 19.9W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910824, 0000, , EX, 43.1N, 19.4W, 25, 1006, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910824, 0600, , EX, 42.4N, 19.1W, 25, 1008, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910824, 1200, , EX, 42.2N, 18.6W, 25, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910824, 1800, , EX, 42.1N, 18.1W, 25, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910825, 0000, , EX, 41.9N, 17.9W, 25, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910825, 0600, , EX, 41.7N, 17.8W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910825, 1200, , EX, 41.3N, 17.6W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910825, 1800, , EX, 40.9N, 17.3W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910826, 0000, , EX, 40.5N, 16.8W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910826, 0600, , EX, 40.2N, 16.0W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910826, 1200, , EX, 40.0N, 15.2W, 20, 1012, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910826, 1800, , EX, 39.9N, 14.4W, 20, 1012, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910827, 0000, , EX, 39.9N, 13.8W, 20, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910827, 0600, , EX, 40.0N, 13.1W, 20, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910827, 1200, , EX, 40.0N, 12.4W, 20, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910827, 1800, , EX, 40.0N, 11.8W, 20, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910828, 0000, , EX, 40.0N, 11.3W, 15, 1015, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910828, 0600, , EX, 40.0N, 10.9W, 15, 1015, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910828, 1200, , EX, 40.0N, 10.5W, 15, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910828, 1800, , EX, 40.0N, 10.1W, 10, 1014, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19910829, 0000, , EX, 40.0N, 9.9W, 10, 1015, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,

* Genesis is unchanged. It is supported by Recon data and satellite data. Intensification to a tropical storm was likely a bit earlier, as the next Recon flight found stronger winds.
* The intensity was likely overestimated for a bit on August 17th and 18th, as Recon found 71 kt winds at 1,500 feet (which supports 50-55 kt, not 65 kt). I believe it became a hurricane at 00Z on the 18th.
* Rapid intensification occurred on the 18th - faster than shown in HURDAT now I believe. The strongest winds were 119 kt at 700 mb, supporting 107 kt at the surface. The peak intensity was likely 105 kt and occurred a bit earlier than the current HURDAT peak (a case could be made for 110 kt as well, but as you go higher in latitudes, the winds may not be quite as efficient mixing down, even though Bob was very convective for its latitude).
* Note that the winds and pressure did not peak at the same time. At the time of lowest pressure (950 mb, measured by Recon), winds were already starting to decrease (the current 100 kt is maintained there).
* Both landfalls in southern New England (Block Island and Newport) I believe were at 90 kt (HURDAT has 90 kt and 85 kt now). That is primarily based on unofficial observations of 87 kt sustained winds at North Truro and 85 kt at Provincetown, as well as an elevated 97 kt wind on Block Island (likely translates to 85-90 kt at the surface).
* Landfall in Maine is also upgraded to 65 kt (from 60 kt), based on a reading of 61 kt at Wiscasset and sparse observations overall.
* The hurricane categories for intensity is currently NY2, CT2, RI2, MA2. I recommend a change to NC1, NY1, CT1, RI2, MA2, ME1, as sustained winds to hurricane force likely occurred on Cape Hatteras as Bob passed close by, while I keep it a hurricane at final landfall in Maine. New York and Connecticut were on the weaker side and likely saw category 1 conditions (only in southeast CT and far eastern Long Island).
* In the absence of surface data over the north Atlantic, I've left the long extratropical track along. However, it's certainly possible Bob was absorbed by another low long before that journey.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#347 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:14 pm

Hammy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.


I hope so because this one (TD in 1970) has been on my radar for decades ever since I started reading about past seasons.


That was probably a solid tropical storm. Resolution is terrible there, but that would probably be about a T3.0 or even T3.5.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#348 Postby Hammy » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.


I hope so because this one (TD in 1970) has been on my radar for decades ever since I started reading about past seasons.


That was probably a solid tropical storm. Resolution is terrible there, but that would probably be about a T3.0 or even T3.5.


Image

Better resolution, albeit a bit past the peak organization.

Also agreed on Bob--my archive has it around 105/110kt well before landfall.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#349 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:44 pm

Hammy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.


I hope so because this one (TD in 1970) has been on my radar for decades ever since I started reading about past seasons.
https://i.imgur.com/stY9jxm.png
https://i.imgur.com/ewjeFcp.png


I have a hard time believing it stayed as a tropical depression for that long. It was probably a tropical storm at some point.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#350 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:01 pm

Hammy wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Isn't 1966-1970 about finished too? Maybe those will be released sometime next year.


I hope so because this one (TD in 1970) has been on my radar for decades ever since I started reading about past seasons.
https://i.imgur.com/stY9jxm.png
https://i.imgur.com/ewjeFcp.png

Preliminary data actually suggests this was actually a hurricane near the Azores (the ET system mentioned is actually the same system):

https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/1188847148890120192?s=21
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#351 Postby MGC » Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:04 pm

Hurricane Betsy (1965) has been reanalyzed. Up graded to Cat-4, 130mph, at landfall in Louisiana. My first big hurricane. Rode Betsy out in the French Quarter in a third story apartment. Remember the whole building shaking in the stronger gusts. My Mom started to cry when plaster started to fall off the ceiling......MGC

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#352 Postby GSBHurricane » Mon May 18, 2020 6:44 pm

Any reanalysis news recently?
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#353 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:31 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:Any reanalysis news recently?


Not really. They might have used the pandemic shutdown to dig up data if it was available through Internet and similar sources or do write ups, but they all had to be done remotely.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#354 Postby Falling Soil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:01 pm

Request from you lovely re-analyzing mets out there: Hurricane Anita 1977. I've wondered for years if a Cat 5 ever made landfall west of the Mississippi River, and this is the only candidate.. ADVthanksANCE!
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#355 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:25 pm

Falling Soil wrote:Request from you lovely re-analyzing mets out there: Hurricane Anita 1977. I've wondered for years if a Cat 5 ever made landfall west of the Mississippi River, and this is the only candidate.. ADVthanksANCE!


Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#356 Postby Hammy » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:07 pm

Is there any preliminary stuff for 1966-70 out there?
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#357 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:43 pm

Hammy wrote:Is there any preliminary stuff for 1966-70 out there?


Not that I have found.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#358 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:57 pm

Hammy wrote:Is there any preliminary stuff for 1966-70 out there?

A couple of years ago, yes. In a video presentation. But nothing confirmed since then.
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Re: Reanalysis questions

#359 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:37 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


I know we were discussing that 1995 and 1996 could use some work, since that was the beginning of the modern era with new tools just coming out then. Here's my thoughts for Opal in 1995.

AL171995, OPAL, 40,
19950927, 1800, , TD, 19.1N, 87.3W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 2300, L, TD, 19.4N, 87.4W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 0000, , TD, 19.4N, 87.5W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 0600, , TD, 19.4N, 87.9W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 1200, , TD, 19.3N, 88.2W, 30, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 1800, , TD, 19.3N, 88.4W, 30, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 0000, , TS, 19.4N, 88.4W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 0600, , TS, 19.5N, 88.4W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 1200, , TS, 19.6N, 88.3W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 1800, , TS, 19.8N, 88.2W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 0000, , TS, 20.1N, 88.2W, 40, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 0600, , TS, 20.6N, 88.3W, 40, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 1200, , TS, 21.1N, 88.5W, 40, 1001, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 1800, , TS, 21.4N, 89.1W, 45, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 0000, , TS, 21.3N, 89.9W, 45, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 0600, , TS, 21.1N, 90.7W, 45, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 1200, , TS, 20.9N, 91.2W, 45, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 1800, , TS, 20.8N, 91.6W, 50, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 0000, , TS, 20.7N, 91.9W, 55, 983, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 0600, , TS, 20.8N, 92.1W, 60, 979, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 1200, , HU, 21.0N, 92.3W, 65, 975, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 1800, , HU, 21.2N, 92.3W, 65, 972, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 0000, , HU, 21.7N, 92.2W, 70, 969, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 0600, , HU, 22.2N, 92.0W, 75, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 1200, , HU, 22.8N, 91.6W, 80, 966, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 91.0W, 90, 961, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0000, , HU, 24.5N, 90.1W, 105, 949, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0600, , HU, 25.9N, 89.4W, 120, 931, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0900, I, HU, 26.4N, 89.0W, 135, 916, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 1200, , HU, 27.3N, 88.5W, 130, 921, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 1800, , HU, 29.0N, 87.7W, 110, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 2200, L, HU, 30.3N, 87.1W, 100, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 0000, , HU, 31.0N, 86.8W, 80, 954, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 0600, , TS, 33.2N, 86.2W, 50, 974, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 1200, , EX, 35.4N, 85.7W, 40, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 1800, , EX, 38.5N, 83.5W, 40, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 0000, , EX, 40.5N, 82.3W, 40, 989, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 0600, , EX, 42.0N, 80.5W, 40, 991, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 1200, , EX, 43.3N, 78.4W, 35, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 1800, , EX, 44.5N, 76.5W, 30, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,

* I added an additional landfall very early in its life in the Yucatan while it was a tropical depression. That didn't appear in the original HURDAT best track.
* It is likely Opal became a tropical storm much earlier - no later than 0000Z September 29 - based on ship data. It's possible that it was a storm earlier still, but data was sparse. Tropical storm winds were only over water.
* The intensities in the Bay of Campeche were largely unchanged, with pressures tweaked based on Recon timing.
* The explosive intensification trend was smoothed out some. I went with 135 kt for a peak intensity. An argument could also be made for 140 kt, however, there is inherent uncertainty in the observations and the peak was a very sharp one. In addition, Opal was a very large storm, so the pressure relationships may have been lower than expected (it was quite a bit larger than Michael), although that was offset somewhat by its fast forward speed.
* The landfall intensity remained unchanged at 100 kt (the pressure a tad higher at 944 mb). Consideration was made for a 95 kt intensity, although there wasn't enough conclusive evidence to lower the intensity.
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MarioProtVI
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm

Re: Reanalysis questions

#360 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


I know we were discussing that 1995 and 1996 could use some work, since that was the beginning of the modern era with new tools just coming out then. Here's my thoughts for Opal in 1995.

AL171995, OPAL, 40,
19950927, 1800, , TD, 19.1N, 87.3W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 2300, L, TD, 19.4N, 87.4W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 0000, , TD, 19.4N, 87.5W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 0600, , TD, 19.4N, 87.9W, 30, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 1200, , TD, 19.3N, 88.2W, 30, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950928, 1800, , TD, 19.3N, 88.4W, 30, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 0000, , TS, 19.4N, 88.4W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 0600, , TS, 19.5N, 88.4W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 1200, , TS, 19.6N, 88.3W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950929, 1800, , TS, 19.8N, 88.2W, 35, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 0000, , TS, 20.1N, 88.2W, 40, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 0600, , TS, 20.6N, 88.3W, 40, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 1200, , TS, 21.1N, 88.5W, 40, 1001, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19950930, 1800, , TS, 21.4N, 89.1W, 45, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 0000, , TS, 21.3N, 89.9W, 45, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 0600, , TS, 21.1N, 90.7W, 45, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 1200, , TS, 20.9N, 91.2W, 45, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951001, 1800, , TS, 20.8N, 91.6W, 50, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 0000, , TS, 20.7N, 91.9W, 55, 983, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 0600, , TS, 20.8N, 92.1W, 60, 979, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 1200, , HU, 21.0N, 92.3W, 65, 975, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951002, 1800, , HU, 21.2N, 92.3W, 65, 972, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 0000, , HU, 21.7N, 92.2W, 70, 969, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 0600, , HU, 22.2N, 92.0W, 75, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 1200, , HU, 22.8N, 91.6W, 80, 966, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951003, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 91.0W, 90, 961, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0000, , HU, 24.5N, 90.1W, 105, 949, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0600, , HU, 25.9N, 89.4W, 120, 931, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 0900, I, HU, 26.4N, 89.0W, 135, 916, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 1200, , HU, 27.3N, 88.5W, 130, 921, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 1800, , HU, 29.0N, 87.7W, 110, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951004, 2200, L, HU, 30.3N, 87.1W, 100, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 0000, , HU, 31.0N, 86.8W, 80, 954, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 0600, , TS, 33.2N, 86.2W, 50, 974, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 1200, , EX, 35.4N, 85.7W, 40, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951005, 1800, , EX, 38.5N, 83.5W, 40, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 0000, , EX, 40.5N, 82.3W, 40, 989, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 0600, , EX, 42.0N, 80.5W, 40, 991, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 1200, , EX, 43.3N, 78.4W, 35, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19951006, 1800, , EX, 44.5N, 76.5W, 30, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,

* I added an additional landfall very early in its life in the Yucatan while it was a tropical depression. That didn't appear in the original HURDAT best track.
* It is likely Opal became a tropical storm much earlier - no later than 0000Z September 29 - based on ship data. It's possible that it was a storm earlier still, but data was sparse. Tropical storm winds were only over water.
* The intensities in the Bay of Campeche were largely unchanged, with pressures tweaked based on Recon timing.
* The explosive intensification trend was smoothed out some. I went with 135 kt for a peak intensity. An argument could also be made for 140 kt, however, there is inherent uncertainty in the observations and the peak was a very sharp one. In addition, Opal was a very large storm, so the pressure relationships may have been lower than expected (it was quite a bit larger than Michael), although that was offset somewhat by its fast forward speed.
* The landfall intensity remained unchanged at 100 kt (the pressure a tad higher at 944 mb). Consideration was made for a 95 kt intensity, although there wasn't enough conclusive evidence to lower the intensity.


Given the the extremely small eye Opal had I think a case for 140 kt could be made. If there is any IR images of Opal near peak I’d love to see it.
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