STORM2K • View topic - 2012 NHC/Model Performance

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 Post subject: 2012 NHC/Model Performance
PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:27 am 
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Greetings everyone.

Below is a breakdown for the entire season's and each tropical system's NHC and model performance.

A key for all the model IDs may be found here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Forecast track errors are measured in nautical models. Forecast intensity errors are measured in nautical miles per hour (knots).

On the seasonal graph, the dashed grey lines on both sides of mean (black line) indicate one standard deviation.
Mean is calculated from a 2001-2011 average.

All data below is preliminary and is subject to adjustments once the best track is released. The official revised figures will be available in the NHC Storm Reports found on their website.

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Forecast Track Error
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Forecast Intensity Error
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Tropical Storm Alberto provided some difficulty in forecasting track. The official NHC forecast trended 2-3 times worse than the 10-year NHC mean. No model consistently beat the mean... the only exception was the 24-hour mean from TCON. The CMC did the beat for the first 48 hours. Afterwards, climatology and persistence (CLP5) was king. BAMD was by far the worst performer.

On the other hand, Tropical Storm Alberto was much easier on the intensity forecast. The official NHC forecast was the best compared to the selected models--generally 20-30% of the 10-year NHC mean, with ICON not far behind. Furthermore, all the models, with the exception of NOGAPS, beat the 10-year NHC mean.

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Tropical Storm Beryl also provided forecasting track difficulty. The official NHC forecast was generally 2-3 times worse than the 10-year NHC mean, with the extended forecast being horrible. Again, no model beat the mean and BAMD did significantly worse than all. The best performers were BAMS and GFDL during the first 36-hours. UKMET did the best 48-hrs and beyond.

The NHC intensity forecast was relatively close to the mean, with some noted achievements in the extended forecast. SHIPS did the best during the first 72 hours with GFDL picking up the 96- and 120-hour points.

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Once again, Hurricane Chris gave the forecast track plenty of fits. The NHC track was 3-4 times worse than the 10-year NHC mean. Across the board, LGEM was the better model. BAMS did the best on the 12- and 24-hour point, with UKMET picking up the 36- and 48-hour point. Climo (CLP5) was the worst.

For intensity, NHC was near- to below-normal. LGEM was the better model for intensity with GFDL and HWRF doing the worst.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:22 pm 
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Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
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Location: Lakeland Fl
Thanks,

Good info...


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