Disturbance near Bahamas (is INVEST 91L)

[tolakram]

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[NDG]

Why do the Tropics have to get so active right when I start my vacation, lol.

This area of disturbance east of FL is the tropical wave ahead of Ernesto that we were tracking for days. It now has a nice vorticity just south Andros Island in the Bahamas as seen on HR vis sat loop this morning, still under a lot of shear but as it gets closer to the UL trough over FL it could find better environment for development. I have to keep an eye on since I am in South Beach vacationing.

[tailgater]

Is it August yet?

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html
Looks like something trying to spin up in my red circle.

[Bocadude85]

Last nights Euro tried to spin this up before making landfall in east cental florida.

[Bocadude85]

Recon has been scheduled.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 031409
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$

[Pearl River]

If I'm not mistaken, I believe this is the one the NOGAPS was sending across Fl into the coast of La, then SW towards the Rio Grande Valley.

[RL3AO]

Looking good. This thread should be short lived I would think. 91L soon?

[crimi481]

Will this systm have effect on Ernesto - once it crosses Fl and gets in Gulf?

[gatorcane]

If I'm not mistaken, I believe this is the one the NOGAPS was sending across Fl into the coast of La, then SW towards the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes the 18Z NOGAPs develops this and moves it NW towards Florida. Not much more model support than that tough, however, certainly looks interesting.

If it manages to develop into something, I would think it could influence the track of Ernesto, but at this time the chances are low that would happen.

[floridasun78]

let see what 2pm outlook say

[tolakram]

Is now Invest 91L viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113224