Two years after El Nino's end...

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Andrew92
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#21 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:09 pm

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It could be that this year is a Modoki year, and 2013 could be the dangerous year. Some cooler anomalies have popped up near the Galapagos Islands, and the more consistent anomalies appear to be shifting west in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. However, plenty of warm anomalies still persist near the coast of South America, leading me to believe that this remains a typical El Nino.

I will give that more storms have formed in the Atlantic this year than typically seen in an El Nino, at twelve, with five growing into hurricanes. However, only Gordon and Kirk have been category 2's, and the other three storms were hurricanes for periods of no more than 24 hours. Ernesto is also the only one to become a hurricane south of the Tropic of Cancer, though Isaac did come close before reaching Haiti and Leslie made a push too east of the Leeward Islands this past week. But all the other storms that have occurred this year in the tropical latitudes in the Atlantic have really struggled. Florence surprised me, but still was short-lived. The seventh tropical depression, forecast to become a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean, never came to further fruition until the Gulf of Mexico. Joyce was barely ever a tropical storm on top of it. For what it's worth, even Ernesto and Isaac struggled until they got further west. Gordon and Kirk were stronger, but were also further to the north in subtropical latitudes.

El Nino's usually peak around the late fall, too. There are also some oscillations around the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic to make things slightly more favorable, possibly explaining how Leslie got a little stronger than I anticipated. Even in 1997, the strongest El Nino event known, featured a hurricane brushing near the Leeward Islands around this time. I'm just not fully sure, but I think we will see a taper in activity once the next week or two passes. However, I do also expect before that taper occurs, that Leslie or one other storm will become a category 3 hurricane in a subtropical latitude.

As for 2013, if my theory were to hold, and the ENSO for the Eastern Pacific at least remains steady, a pattern more consistent with years immediately following an El Nino is for more westward moving storms across the Caribbean, though can be coupled with lots of activity in the Gulf of Mexico too. 2003 featured Claudette crossing the Caribbean, though it didn't really intensify a lot until it was in the Gulf of Mexico, a proverbial hot bed that year for tropical storms to form and try to strengthen - yet, no majors occurred there or in the Caribbean. 2007 was different, featuring a little less activity in the Gulf but storms still trying their hardest to get going there, and most importantly Dean and Felix riding across the Caribbean as category 5 hurricanes. 2010 also saw a similar pattern, especially in the second half of September and the first half of October. Although no storm long-tracked across the Caribbean, you saw storms like Karl, Matthew, and Richard develop further west and head straight on into Central America and/or Mexico. Most of the Gulf was quiet, except the western part, with Alex, Hermine, and Karl intensifying quite a bit there.

Another thing is that there sometimes, but not always, seems to be a "hangover" effect in the first year after a typical El Nino, where similar conditions to the year prior aren't fully gone yet. 2003, despite its Gulf of Mexico activity, didn't see one major take place, and for as active as that season was on the surface, only Fabian and Isabel were truly classical long-tracking hurricanes. 2007 was a classic example of this "hangover" effect, with lots of sinking air and a strong TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) near the peak of the season to keep storms in check until they were further west. Then again, 2010 saw quite a few impressive storms that overachieved in the tropics after a strong El Nino year the year before, so it doesn't always happen.

I think we will see a similar setup in 2013, with lots of Gulf of Mexico activity, but mostly short-lived storms with maybe a couple becoming hurricanes just before a landfall. I also think we could see one really classic Caribbean rider next year into Central America (slightly off-topic, one name for such a storm next year really sticks out to me). But by 2014, I think the ridge typically seen to drive storms in this part of the world west will erode enough to drive them north. I really am hoping conditions are not favorable for strong storms that year.

But as always, make sure you are prepared every year in case a bad storm like Isaac should threaten your area!

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#22 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:10 pm

decordova33 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Kind of going along with this (not the 2 year thing, but ENSO wise), here is a study I did while in Iraq:

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=107692


This is very interesting study, I have few question but I think it would be better if I asked them their..

What would they be?
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#23 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:19 am

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I thought I'd bump this discussion from a while back to give my final thoughts on 2012 from an El Nino standpoint, and what 2013 might bring.

I was thoroughly convinced in August that an El Nino was taking shape. When you looked at the storms that were occurring, even in that active month, many in the tropics were struggling until they got further west (such as Ernesto, Helene, and Issac) or dissipated altogether in the lower latitudes (ala Florence and Joyce). But the more mid-tropical latitude storms were overachieving in intensity. Beryl nearly became a hurricane in May, Chris actually did become one in June, and Gordon nearly became a major hurricane - all in these latitudes. Early September also saw little change to that, though Leslie and Nadine got stronger, but also re-curved quickly northward into a weakness in the Bermuda-Azores High - another usual event in a typical El Nino year. And then Michael, the only official category 3 hurricane by wind speed as of now, formed from non-tropical origins over subtropical latitudes. (However, I think Sandy will be upgraded to one for its landfall in Cuba, and Gordon and/or Kirk would not surprise me either if they were upgraded.)

But then something bizarre happened. While most El Nino's peak in the fall, this one actually weakened, or perhaps transitioned into a Modoki event. Indeed, in the first half of the season, the equatorial Eastern Pacific was slightly warmer than average. However, those waters cooled, and slightly above-average waters were now occurring over the central Pacific instead. One can also look at the other three known Modoki years in the satellite era, 1963, 1969, and 2004 and draw some comparisons. 1963 did not have the numbers of the other two or 2012, but had one very classical long-tracking hurricane in Flora, and another annoying, refused-to-die home-grown storm in Ginny. Most of the other storms from tropical waves that year turned north and out to sea. 1969 saw a similar trend in Cape Verde storm tracks re-curving, but more of them occurred, with Debbie as the premier major hurricane in that bunch. However, one storm slipped through the cracks and intensified further west, Francelia. But more storms reached the Gulf of Mexico that year, unlike 1963 or 2012, of course led by Camille. I would describe 2004 as more similar to 1969, although even that year was unique. That's because a very strong Bermuda-Azores High generally drove storms west during the heart of the season, unlike the other years where storms found a weakness and would re-curve. To be sure, the first half of 2012 did feel like a typical, but weak, El Nino. But the second half, featuring pesky Nadine and a very strong Sandy (which I think will be upgraded to a category 3 by wind in Cuba), felt more like a Modoki year. Therefore, I will call 2012 some sort of Modoki year on balance.

By referring to 2012 as a Modoki year, one of my theories will get put to the test in 2013. Will we indeed see another major hurricane either by wind, or by having a pressure of 960 mb or lower, strike the United States? (Or, and we should all hope this, was Sandy that storm to do so, with her 946 mb at landfall even if she was extratropical by the time she did so?) When looking one more time at the US landfalls of 2012 versus the other three Modoki years, one common theme for the hurricanes is that the Gulf Coast has been struck in every year (Cindy in 1963, Camille in 1969, Charley and Ivan in 2004, and Isaac in 2012). However, the East Coast does also get either a pretty decent hurricane or a very close call each time too (Ginny in 1963, Gerda in 1969, Alex, Charley, and Gaston in 2004, and Sandy in 2012).

But when looking at the first year after those years (1964, 1970, and 2005), the Gulf of Mexico is hit again, this time by at least one storm with a pressure of 960 mb or lower (and so far, all of these storms in those years are category 3 or higher by wind, too). These storms are Hilda in 1964, Celia in 1970, and Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005. The Florida Peninsula was also hit by Cleo and Dora in 1964, and Katrina in 2005 when she had just become a hurricane - though that area was spared in 1970. However, one other major storm by wind hit Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico in 1970, Ella (though her pressure was 967 mb, and knowing little about that storm, I suspect the peak wind intensity of 125 mph may be high). These major storms were all home-grown storms and also tend to strike Louisiana or points west - only Dennis and Wilma went further east.

This is an admittedly very small sample size. However, that makes me all the more intrigued to find out if it could happen again in 2013. Will we indeed have another major hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico next year? Also, will it happen in the central to western part? *cough*INGRID*cough* Yes, to go somewhat off-topic, that name does stick out bigtime to me for such a storm next year, and not because it's another dreaded I name either.

There's also another intriguing facet to 2013. This next season will be coming only a few years off a period with two consecutive seasons without a US landfalling hurricane (2009-2010). The other three periods (1930-1931, 1981-1982, and 2000-2001) all featured a season with numerous US hurricanes only a few years later (1933 with five strikes, 1985 with six, and 2004 and 2005 each with six). I have long wondered if this is merely a coincidence, or if there is something of a correlation between one of these droughts followed by such a year for the US. 2013 is in perfect position to pull off the feat again, especially coming off a weird Modoki year in 2012.

But hoping Sandy was the one - and only one - after this bizarre year.

-Andrew92
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#24 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:31 pm

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Bumping an old thread here...

I have some new thoughts looking at last year and comparing to this year. Some have said last year was not an El Nino, and some have said that last year was a Modoki year. I took another look at the MEI values for the whole year, and in the early part of the hurricane season there was a clear value above 1.0, indicative of a pretty decent El Nino. In this case, however, the El Nino was just forming in the Spring, and then just as quickly weakened in the Fall to dissipating by the Winter. I tried looking at data back to 1950 to see if any other year could compare to this type of scenario, and I found none.

I had never thought of this prior, but I wonder if there is a rare situation where there could be what I now dub an "accelerated" El Nino. With no further data to back this up, this is merely speculation, so absolutely take what I am saying with a grain of salt.

My theory kind of goes like this: obviously during a traditional El Nino, conditions are unfavorable for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. However, as the El Nino weakens and dissipates, things slowly evolve into significantly more favorable conditions in the Atlantic, and couple with steering currents that usually take at least one strong hurricane into the US coast somewhere. A similar effect takes place in a Modoki year, but conditions are not as unfavorable in the Atlantic during the Modoki year, and conditions and steering currents again become very favorable for major hurricanes to reach the US coast somewhere. It usually happens in the Gulf of Mexico, but 1989, 1996, 1999 (though that year also had Bret), and 2011 (and despite Irene being a C1, remember I like to think of a hurricane with a pressure of 960 mb or lower as a major storm due to the potential of such damage in a large area combined with flooding) showed it can indeed happen on the East Coast too.

But perhaps this "accelerated" El Nino I am thinking 2012 may have been is something totally different. Again, clearly there was some type of El Nino early on the season, plus I do remember warmer anomalies off of South America. But with this being a more brief event, maybe it caused conditions to only be unfavorable for significant storms early in the year only. Then, as the El Nino quickly weakens, conditions gradually become more favorable for a major hurricane to form late in the year and reach the US coast, ala Sandy. (Yes, Sandy was a C1 upon reaching the coast and actually became extratropical, but are you going to say it wasn't a major storm? Plus the pressure was in the 940s, more than meeting my definition of a major storm.)

I said in another thread that this year is looking like a 2000 or 2001 type season. 2000 and 2001 came right after the second year after an El Nino, and right before another El Nino. A number of storms this year have followed paths or had similar life cycles to multiple storms of those years. You could compare Andrea to Gordon in 2000 or Gabrielle in 2001, for instance. Barry, Fernand, and Ingrid could be like Beryl and Keith from 2000 in terms of track at least. Chantal, Dorian, and Erin might be compared to Chris, Debby, and Ernesto from 2000, and pre-Caribbean Chantal and pre-hurricane Erin in 2001. Gabrielle looks similar to 2001's Dean. Humberto is somewhat similar to Alberto from 2000, though not as strong due to more dry air this year than that year. Conditions were simply not as primed in those two years for significant hurricanes to reach the US coast, though Michelle passing south of Florida was close. And really, with the high heat potential in the Western Caribbean (where Keith, Iris, and Michelle quickly spin into major hurricanes in those two years), I really think that is the best chance of seeing a major hurricane take place this year, and probably in October.

Also, for what it's worth, I haven't seen enough El Nino prognostications for this coming Winter to make a solid prediction on ENSO for this upcoming year. I am noticing that the SOI is lowering right now though and a Winter like 2009-10 is being prediction, though some are saying it could be due to a PDO situation instead of El Nino. Still, this kind of prospect intrigues me more than a little. Could this be the year after an "accelerated" El Nino as I call it, and the year before a normal, traditional El Nino?

I am still intrigued to see if 2014 brings either an El Nino or a significant hurricane into the US, given the warm anomalies off South America and high MEI that took place early on in 2012. But at a minimum, if no significant hurricanes reach the US next year, it may take a normal, traditional El Nino to cause the next serious threat a couple years down the road. Maybe it would happen next year but we don't entirely know for now.

I guess in sum, call it a "to be determined" kind of case. Most importantly for now, do not let your guard down for the rest of this year! It could still happen this year, as we haven't finished September and even seen what October might be like.

-Andrew92
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#25 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:45 pm

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Come to think of it, I did just take a look to see if there were ever any other quick MEI spikes to a value of 1.0 or higher and then dying back down, as was observed in June-July 2012. I found two such instances: in November-December 1979, and in February-March 2005. In both cases, the MEI was much slower to dip to negative than the 2012 case - never doing so in 1980 but eventually going negative near the heart of 2005. However, it does lend credence in my theory that these spikes might cause similar conditions after a traditional or Modoki year for where significant hurricanes can reach the US further on down the road. 1980 did feature Allen after all, and I don't think I even need to go over 2005. Again, while 2012 didn't feature a C3 or higher by the Saffir/Simpson Scale reach the US, Sandy's pressure was in the 940s at the time it did so. Again, keep in mind a hurricane with a pressure of 960 mb or below often causes damage seen in these stronger storms, and thus I often use that as a benchmark if a storm is major or not too.

Still, do not let your guard down at all until this year's season is over! Just because conditions don't appear ripe for anything to take place in your area right now does not mean it won't a little later. I often compare this year to 2000 or 2001, and those years featured their most destructive hurricanes in October (emphasized because of Allison doing far worse as a tropical storm).

-Andrew92
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Re:

#26 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:59 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Also, for what it's worth, I haven't seen enough El Nino prognostications for this coming Winter to make a solid prediction on ENSO for this upcoming year. I am noticing that the SOI is lowering right now though and a Winter like 2009-10 is being prediction, though some are saying it could be due to a PDO situation instead of El Nino. Still, this kind of prospect intrigues me more than a little. Could this be the year after an "accelerated" El Nino as I call it, and the year before a normal, traditional El Nino?


Great stuff as usual. SST's most of the summer has resembled 2001 very well. It is one of the years I think winter will try to follow, the other being 1962-1963. I will be interested to see if a true blue El Nino arises next year which is what I think probably will happen.
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#27 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:17 pm

Coming back to my senses just a tad, in my original post I had wondered if 1979 was some kind of a Modoki year, due to a warm tongue over the central equatorial Pacific. I hadn't noticed that isolated value of over 1.0 at the end of the year, but it still makes me wonder, especially since I wasn't yet born that year. I am well aware of 2004-05 being a Modoki situation and it spiked.

I guess I could also have said one spike of over 1.0 in the summer of 1976 coupled with another exactly one year later in 1977. However, that appears to be a more sustained El Nino event, with a healthy number of values that pushed that number, and therefore doesn't quite appear "accelerated". Plus, that event appears to have been a traditional El Nino, not a Modoki.

But after also seeing somewhat weak El Nino MEI values persisting early in 1980 and 2005 before the hurricane seasons, I am a tiny bit more skeptical that these were those "spikes" that I was thinking of, like we saw last year. Still, I won't entirely rule out such an episode either.

I even found data going back to 1871, and still can't find a short-lived MEI spike quite like last year. It's probably happened before and is just such a rare event that we don't know much or even anything about it.

-Andrew92
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#28 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:46 pm

I have some fresh new thoughts today on my theory about the years after an El Nino year.

For starters, I am no longer buying the "accelerated El Nino" theory that I had for 2012, as well as 1979 and 2004. I knew about 2004, and have learned since that 1979 was indeed a Modoki El Nino. 2012 was just a failed attempt, aided by a very intense pool of cold anomalies through a good chunk of the EPAC MDR, between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude.

However, that last phrase is critical to new research that has led this topic down something I hadn't thought of before. Alyono has mentioned in a number of posts recently that more than the Equator needs to be looked at in figuring out how the Atlantic might behave during hurricane season. This has prompted me to re-evaluate all the years immediately after every El Nino, whether traditional or Modoki. Some changes are warranted as second-years-after a traditional El Nino and first-years-after a Modoki event. My new list of such years is as follows, going back now to the 1950s:

1955 - Connie and Ione
1961 - Carla
1964 - Hilda (after a Modoki)
1967 - Beulah
1970 - Celia (after a Modoki)
1974 - Carmen
1979 - Frederic (this year was also a Modoki)
1980 - Allen (after a Modoki)
1985 - Elena and Gloria
1989 - Hugo
1996 - Fran
1999 - Bret and Floyd
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (after a Modoki)
2008 - Gustav and Ike
2011 - Irene

Now I will summarize what I changed on this. Anything that is unchanged will not get a mention. Also, keep in mind not all the hurricanes I mentioned above are defined as majors by wind, but would be by pressure on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Not to mention, nearly all were quite destructive anyway.

1955: This is new due to learning about 1951-53 all being classic El Nino years, and 1954 being a La Nina. While not majors by wind, Connie and Ione both had pressure below 965 mb at landfall, the recommended pressure where Category 3 would begin.

1960-61: This change is warranted because I have discovered that while it was a La Nina by definition at the Equator, 1959 had very strong warm anomalies in the EPAC MDR. As such, that makes this practically the same as a regular El Nino. 1960 is therefore replaced with 1961 as the second year after this event....which featured Carla slamming into the Texas coast. 1960's anomalies were eerily similar to other first-years-after as well, but that's another discussion entirely.

1970: After deliberating this one, calling it a second year after the 1968 event and a first year after the 1969 Modoki event, I am now only calling this a first year after a Modoki. The 1968 event just wasn't as strong or established as 1969, and the tropics were uncharacteristically quiet in 1970 compared to other second-years-after.

1980: This is because 1979 was a good Modoki event after all. The narrative doesn't break, with Allen slamming into Texas.

1984-85: I have always been skeptical about 1983 being the first year after an El Nino, given the way the Atlantic and EPAC behaved that year. Now I think I know why it was so quiet. Is it fair to call the event that year a "Modoki La Nina?" Cool anomalies were present, but only really in the Central Pacific. There were very healthy warm anomalies still closer to the coast at the Equator and near Central America, ergo at least somewhat Nino-ish that year. 1984 saw a much more classic La Nina, but if that year were a second-year-after, it would be the only one with a major hurricane grazing the US after developing from non-tropical origins (Diana, though it did make landfall a day or so later after weakening a fair amount). Elena and Gloria (pressure) were much more classical hurricanes from tropical origins in 1985.

1992: Not sure if I actually put this down in this thread, but I know I did in some others. But while there was a pool of weak cool anomalies just offshore at the Equator, the rest of the EPAC was warm, warm, warm. Maybe still technically after a good Modoki event, and Andrew helped fit the narrative in that regard, but still not a great example to set, given warm anomalies everywhere in the EPAC.

2004: Having a Modoki two years after a traditional El Nino would be one thing, like 1979. But the anomalies in the EPAC in 2003 were way too warm. Maybe not quite to El Nino status, but certainly warm-neutral, and maybe on the high end of that. I mean, the anomalies where everywhere in the EPAC in 2003. The Atlantic MDR did produce Fabian and Isabel, but the Caribbean was not active at all that year, but not quite as dead as 1959, 1983, and 1992. And 2004 was still, as we all know, a season no one would like to see ever again. This also doesn't affect 2005's status as a first year after a Modoki.

So to summarize, when the El Nino ends remains important. However, just as important is looking at all of the anomalies in the EPAC. A little isolated weak warm anomaly won't surrounded by cool ones would still be a good La Nina. But solid warm anomalies in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north probably need to be looked at like El Nino years, even if the Equator has the anomalies of a La Nina.

-Andrew92
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Re:

#29 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:53 pm

Andrew92 wrote:So to summarize, when the El Nino ends remains important. However, just as important is looking at all of the anomalies in the EPAC. A little isolated weak warm anomaly won't surrounded by cool ones would still be a good La Nina. But solid warm anomalies in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north probably need to be looked at like El Nino years, even if the Equator has the anomalies of a La Nina.

-Andrew92


Something you might want to dig into is the PDO. That ring of warmth from the west coast of NA down into the EPAC regions is +PDO. Whether it is dependent or independent of ENSO is debatable. But it's not just coincidence +PDO has an even better correlation to EPAC season activity, thus adverse effects on the Atlantic. Another matter is the downstream pattern led by the subtropical Pacific (SE ridge, or lack of) can effect trajectory of systems as well.

The failed El Nino of 2012 might have been aided by the very cold (cold ring of waters in the EPAC) PDO

Left is +PDO warm phase, right is -PDO or cold phase
Image

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#30 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:56 pm

The PDO is something that has crossed my mind, I have to say. My knowledge remains a bit limited on that front, but I wonder if that is why the EPAC is sometimes warmer than normal in the MDR, even if a La Nina a the Equator (like 1959, 1983, and 1992 to a lesser extent).

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#31 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 9:25 pm

I have taken brief additional looks at the Pacific anomalies since 1953, and here are my initial findings.

I fully agree that PDO is something I need to study up on, as that clearly plays just as much a role in the tropical Atlantic and EPAC as an El Nino. 2013 is a textbook example, with a good equatorial La Nina present, but warm anomalies nearly everywhere else in the EPAC, particularly off the Northwestern states.

But El Nino remains a critical thing to look at. 1965 was a strong El Nino year that didn't feature much of a warm PDO event. Even 1982 had a strong cold pool in the North Pacific, but El Nino was so firmly established that the cold pool had little effect on the hurricane season in the Atlantic and EPAC that year. I agree on 2012 though that the cold pool was so strong and the warm anomalies were not established well enough to be sustainable.

It's also not unusual for some very, very weak warm anomalies to still be present in the tropical EPAC after an El Nino or warm event fizzles. I discovered it even happened somewhat in 1995 of all years. But if it is one isolated small area, that probably isn't enough to warrant much notice, especially if surrounded by cool anomalies. But again, my knowledge is limited in this regard to the PDO.

-Andrew92
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#32 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 10, 2015 10:20 pm

Agree the PDO is not the answer but in context with ENSO will only provide a little better picture. Also much like the AMO it should be used in the scale of many years, as in which cycle the period is in. That sometimes can help point in direction per say 1983 vs 1998
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Re: Re:

#33 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:So to summarize, when the El Nino ends remains important. However, just as important is looking at all of the anomalies in the EPAC. A little isolated weak warm anomaly won't surrounded by cool ones would still be a good La Nina. But solid warm anomalies in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north probably need to be looked at like El Nino years, even if the Equator has the anomalies of a La Nina.

-Andrew92


Something you might want to dig into is the PDO. That ring of warmth from the west coast of NA down into the EPAC regions is +PDO. Whether it is dependent or independent of ENSO is debatable. But it's not just coincidence +PDO has an even better correlation to EPAC season activity, thus adverse effects on the Atlantic. Another matter is the downstream pattern led by the subtropical Pacific (SE ridge, or lack of) can effect trajectory of systems as well.

The failed El Nino of 2012 might have been aided by the very cold (cold ring of waters in the EPAC) PDO

Left is +PDO warm phase, right is -PDO or cold phase
Image

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


1985 was very active in the East Pacific despite La Nina. The PDO was warm that time.
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#34 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:23 pm

That period between 1982 and 1985 was weird. The strong El Nino was one thing, but it didn't completely fade in 1983 close to the coast. 1984 was a much better La Nina, but remained active in the EPAC and the Atlantic was very disappointing, especially in the tropical latitudes, for a year with that kind of setup. I couldn't find any real warm anomalies in the tropical EPAC anywhere that year. There was one very small pool off Baja, and some good anomalies north of 25 degrees, but nothing in the MDR or Equator. Kind of like 1973, maybe that period being an inactive Atlantic era played a role.

1985 did have some weak but well-established warm anomalies in the Central Pacific between 10 and 20 degrees at least. Maybe that helped the EPAC in activity that year? But it was still a much more classical Atlantic season for the second year after an El Nino than 1984 was. Those years not only have major hurricanes hit the US, but they come from the MDR or Caribbean usually, like Elena and Gloria. Diana was frontal in origin, and the MDR and Caribbean didn't have much to speak of at all in 1984.

-Andrew92
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Re:

#35 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:56 pm

Andrew92 wrote:That period between 1982 and 1985 was weird. The strong El Nino was one thing, but it didn't completely fade in 1983 close to the coast. 1984 was a much better La Nina, but remained active in the EPAC and the Atlantic was very disappointing, especially in the tropical latitudes, for a year with that kind of setup. I couldn't find any real warm anomalies in the tropical EPAC anywhere that year. There was one very small pool off Baja, and some good anomalies north of 25 degrees, but nothing in the MDR or Equator. Kind of like 1973, maybe that period being an inactive Atlantic era played a role.

1985 did have some weak but well-established warm anomalies in the Central Pacific between 10 and 20 degrees at least. Maybe that helped the EPAC in activity that year? But it was still a much more classical Atlantic season for the second year after an El Nino than 1984 was. Those years not only have major hurricanes hit the US, but they come from the MDR or Caribbean usually, like Elena and Gloria. Diana was frontal in origin, and the MDR and Caribbean didn't have much to speak of at all in 1984.

-Andrew92


The 1970s and 1980s were in the cool phase of the Atlantic. The effect of El Nino was still there in the Summer of 1983. It is interesting that 1983 was quiet despite a La Nina. It was a moderate one at peak. I noticed East Pacific was very active in 1983, but not so in the Atlantic and West Pacific. I know 1977 was less active across all the basins. I know early 1977 was a weak El Nino and than cooled and went back to weak El Nino by late 1977.
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#36 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:37 pm

Ptarmigan,

There isn't much debate that, at the Equator, 1983 meets the definition of being a La Nina year....at least in the Central Pacific. However, Alyono has really hammered this in a lot of his recent posts: you cannot just look at the Equator, you need ALL the data, especially including the EPAC MDR. Take a look at the following image:

Image

There were still some decent warm anomalies in the EPAC off the coast of Central America, as well as still even some at the Equator. This was hardly a classic La Nina, maybe a "Modoki La Nina" would better describe that, and even Nino-ish the further east you got. And below is an even better textbook example of why the Equator can't be looked at alone:

Image

Again, it's a La Nina at the Equator. But look at the EPAC MDR. There were warm anomalies almost everywhere in 1959. Now take a look again at the Atlantic hurricane season that year. The tropical latitudes were almost completely shut down that year in the Atlantic, but were pretty impressive in the EPAC. There were more storms in the Atlantic that year than 1983, but the vast majority formed north of 20 degrees and were relatively short-lived.

Thus, I am now forced to consider not just the second year after a traditional El Nino in the Equator, but also the second year after strong warm anomalies have almost completely dissipated in the tropical EPAC. This is why I changed 1960 (which was a much better cool event than 1959) to 1961 as the second year after, and 1984 to 1985.

Source for images above is NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory. If you aren't familiar, you can run all sorts of queries on that site at the following link:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... intpage.pl

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#37 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:06 pm

Bumpity bump.....

The 2016 hurricane season is officially over. As we all know, 2015 was remembered as one of the strongest traditional El Nino years in recent memory. But the topic of interest when regard to intense US hurricanes after such seasons is not the first, but usually the second year following the event.

That doesn't mean the first year after can't produce major or destructive US hurricanes. 1954 gave us three East Coast terrors, most especially Hazel. 1995 was a hair-raising season in activity, and the Gulf was not spared either, getting slammed by Opal. And now in 2016, although weakened by the time it reached the US, Matthew caused a lot of damage as well.

Mind you, I would first like to analyze 2016 in another light. I was not completely convinced this would be a true first year after an El Nino. Supporting my claim were that the EPAC MDR was still fairly warm, and a La Nina really struggling to take shape. The EPAC was quite busy in the first half, while most Atlantic storms struggled. Even Gaston didn't really intensify until it got into the subtropical latitudes. 1959 was a promising looking analog due to a similar overall setup, and coming off an El Nino itself, and the tropical Atlantic struggled that year mightily.

But that's when I re-educated myself on what really needs to be watched after an El Nino: a major hurricane south of 20 degrees, usually in the Caribbean. Going past the peak, it looked like my prediction was bearing out. Then the PDO collapsed, and Matthew formed quickly, even becoming a Category 5 briefly. The Atlantic couldn't take much advantage after that storm, as well as Nicole, but that may have partly been a function of being so late in the year. However, given what happened in late September and early October, I am now convinced 2016 fully meets the criteria for a first year after a traditional El Nino. 1966 comes to mind, as it took a while before Inez finally took shape south of 20 degrees in late September, and that year came off an El Nino as well.

Therefore, so long as there are no surprises and El Nino does not sneak up again anytime soon, my theory is about to be tested next year. It looks like 2017 is likely to be the second year after an El Nino. I don't say this to make anyone panic or anything, but it is something to keep in mind. It is a long ways away, but I am fascinated with the fact that this theory is about to be tested, and nervous as well. Here is wishing for a speedy recovery for those affected by storms this year, and for a happy Christmas and holiday season, and for my theory to fall under in 2017!

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#38 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:47 pm

Seems as though 2017 may be a bad year if this 2 years after an El Nino comes to pass, but as we all know things can change and the two things I'm watching are the PDO and the EPAC MDR as I think those will be the real prognosticators of the 2017 hurricane season, I will give a preliminary forecast on the 15th of what I think will happen in 2017 and adjust from there
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#39 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Seems as though 2017 may be a bad year if this 2 years after an El Nino comes to pass, but as we all know things can change and the two things I'm watching are the PDO and the EPAC MDR as I think those will be the real prognosticators of the 2017 hurricane season, I will give a preliminary forecast on the 15th of what I think will happen in 2017 and adjust from there


Without question, the PDO and any Pacific warming will be stronger indicators for what 2017 might be like. I just really, really hope it isn't a Modoki El Nino, as then 2017 could still, perhaps in a more abbreviated form, be the second year after the 2015 event, but then 2018 would also have potential to be the first year after a Modoki as well. This sort of thing happened in 1979-80, as well as 2004-05.

Also, second years after aren't necessarily the worst seasons per se. I am just saying the chances for great US impacts increases dramatically in those years. But many such seasons only had one doozy, including 2011 with Irene, the most recent example. Also, does anyone in their right mind truly believe 1999, two years after the 1997 event, was worse than 1998? Hopefully not. Yes Floyd was bad, but it doesn't hold a candle to Georges or Mitch.

The fact that this theory has succeeded every time since the 1950s though seems quite telling. The potential is absolutely there, at least for now, for 2017 to be a rough season.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#40 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:51 am

Its 2 years after a big El Nino but the only fly in the ointment may be an other traditional El Nino could be possible this year if the Euro model is right and may have to deal with a memorable 2018 instead but we'll see as the CFSv2 model is remaining +neutral which could be bad news as there could be lots of tropical activity. We'll know more by may
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