Two years after El Nino's end...

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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#41 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:10 pm

It's definitely trending that maybe 2017 will be a traditional El Nino after all. This would be a rare feat if it pulls this off. It did happen though after 1991, with 1992 having a rather similar setup to 2016, but without the late-season temporary PDO collapse that allowed for Matthew, Nicole, and Otto late in the year. 1992 was a weak equatorial La Nina, but mostly warm throughout the rest of the EPAC. Then 1993 turned back into El Nino, which persisted through 1994 as well.

I still think it's too early to say what kind of year 2017 will be in regards to warming, but I still look at the strong possibility of a Modoki. This did happen in 1979 and 2004, which were each two years after either a traditional event (1977) or a hybrid traditional-Modoki event (2002). That would make 2018 a year to watch, if it happens this way. But if this goes full traditional again, then the wait for our next second-year-after a traditional event will continue (or first year after a Modoki). The most recent remains 2011. Could we even be waiting until 2019 in light of this?

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#42 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:17 pm

I think the one thing to watch in regards to what type of El Nino we get will depend on the SOI as that usually will tell you as in if you start to get - numbers it will tend to lead to WWBs and if its positive we keep the easterlies and possible cooling in the ENSO 2 to part of ENSO 3 cool so if the SOI is positive we get an El Nino Madoki and if we go - we get a traditional El Nino but based on current SOI it may be a madoki coming instead of a Traditional El Nino

Also A - SOI would enhance the EPAC activity while shutting down the Atlantic while a Positive SOI would do the exact opposite
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#43 Postby Blown Away » Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:40 pm

During 2015-16 we had a "Super El Nino" event, the worst since 97-98, and just a short time later predictions say we are on the verge of another significant El Nino? Even the few years prior to the 2015-16 event we were nearing El Nino thresholds. Could GW be spurring more frequent El Nino events??
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#44 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:32 pm

I am not going to discuss GW in this thread. Besides, this is hardly unprecedented. 1957 was a pretty strong El Nino, 1958 turned Modoki, and 1959 saw the EPAC MDR warm substantially. And then look at the first half of the 1990s. 1990 was the beginning of a warming trend, though not actually El Nino. 1991 saw a somewhat Modoki event take shape. 1992 saw a La Nina try to creep up, but was overshadowed by a warm EPAC MDR. And finally, El Nino returned for 1993 and lasted through 1994.

In any event, it's now looking like 2017 may go traditional El Nino after all. However, there is a decent sub-surface cold pool lurking that could disrupt this from taking place. But if 2017 sees El Nino return, we will have to wait until at least 2019 for the theory to be tested with clarity again.

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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#45 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:57 pm

Andrew92 wrote:In any event, it's now looking like 2017 may go traditional El Nino after all. However, there is a decent sub-surface cold pool lurking that could disrupt this from taking place. But if 2017 sees El Nino return, we will have to wait until at least 2019 for the theory to be tested with clarity again.

-Andrew92


Wouldn't it be this year regardless, if we're going to test the theory? If we have to wait until 2019 then the theory or idea isn't correlated to some kind of lag effects of an El Nino but simply the correlation with a non-El Nino ENSO event which typically favors more activity anyway.

Just a thought
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#46 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:In any event, it's now looking like 2017 may go traditional El Nino after all. However, there is a decent sub-surface cold pool lurking that could disrupt this from taking place. But if 2017 sees El Nino return, we will have to wait until at least 2019 for the theory to be tested with clarity again.

-Andrew92


Wouldn't it be this year regardless, if we're going to test the theory? If we have to wait until 2019 then the theory or idea isn't correlated to some kind of lag effects of an El Nino but simply the correlation with a non-El Nino ENSO event which typically favors more activity anyway.

Just a thought


It's definitely worth the discussion in this regard. Simply put, there has never really been this short of a lag between traditional events. The closest were probably 1959 and 1992, which featured very warm waters in the EPAC MDR, even though by definition they weren't El Nino years. Both of those years came off of Modoki events, which dictates that the year after is the year to watch for a powerful US hurricane to hit. 1959 did have Gracie while 1992 had Andrew. Events lasting two years have happened as we all know, and those have come without such hits.

But a second year after a traditional El Nino....that also happens to be another traditional event itself? The only times that has happened that I am aware of were in three-year warm events, like 1951-53, as well as arguably 1957-59 (if you count a warm EPAC MDR as at least Nino-like, which I do) and 1991-94. As I mentioned above, Gracie from 1959 and Andrew from 1992 make me lean in the direction that a nasty hurricane appears likely this year somewhere. Also convincing towards this is Emily in 1993, as El Nino did creep back up in the Equator that year too.

And of course there was 2004, two years after 2002. 2003 saw a somewhat warmish EPAC, but no El Nino. 2016 was in some ways like 2003, but the warm EPAC was a little more pronounced. 2004 was of course a Modoki, meaning not only was that year to be watched, but so was 2005. And I think we all know what happened those two years. 1979 was similar too, coming two years off the 1977 event and going Modoki.

Wow, just a lot of possibilities in this scenario. I know some may be calling for a fairly quiet season, and I am in leaning into that camp now as well. But two years after 2015, with a La Nina that tried to pop out last year and finally seemed to late in the year? Followed by another traditional event in what should be the second year after, with prior evidence in somewhat similar situations that it could still be dangerous this year? Interesting complications for this year that perk me up, even if it's quiet!

Then again, isn't the atmosphere also behaving more like a La Nina so far this year? Coupled with the sub-surface cold pool, another interesting wrinkle, if that is the case!

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#47 Postby Ntxw » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:24 am

The odds of an El Nino has decreased over the past month, and the odds of an El Nino during ASO is even less. A weaker event (assuming one kickstarts by May) towards the end of this year is still possible but given the slow nature of ENSO it may not happen by hurricane season. An aborted event like 2012 where most of the warmth stays to the eastern basin is also possible.

There has been la nina like atmosphere over the past month, but that is atmospheric lag from the winter Nina.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#48 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:08 am

2008 comes to mind a little as well. The EPAC did show warm anomalies, that looked decent on paper. But clearly something else was going on, and there was still work to do for a full El Nino, probably a similar lag in the atmosphere. I would love to see the sub-surface anomalies for the peak of that year, when warm anomalies we're starting to show up.

I am not sold this will be a particularly crazy season overall with numbers or ACE, but even with a possible El Nino, this is the year to watch for a doozy reaching the US. If it can happen in 1959 or 1992, it can happen this year as well. Heck, look at 1967. Just eight named storms, but it fell two years after the 1965 El Nino, and Beulah smacked Brownsville. Quality over quantity.....and as mentioned, the odds of this El Nino have lowered recently for the peak of the season.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#49 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:22 am

Andrew92 wrote:2008 comes to mind a little as well. The EPAC did show warm anomalies, that looked decent on paper. But clearly something else was going on, and there was still work to do for a full El Nino, probably a similar lag in the atmosphere. I would love to see the sub-surface anomalies for the peak of that year, when warm anomalies we're starting to show up.
-Andrew92


2008 and 2012 which were considered aborted Nino's, do not compare at all with what we have here in 2017.

2008:
Image

2012:

Image

2017:

Image

Just look at how cold that PDO is at those times. The difference between those years and this year is really the PDO being in a favorable phase.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#50 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:26 am

Ntxw wrote:The odds of an El Nino has decreased over the past month, and the odds of an El Nino during ASO is even less. A weaker event (assuming one kickstarts by May) towards the end of this year is still possible but given the slow nature of ENSO it may not happen by hurricane season. An aborted event like 2012 where most of the warmth stays to the eastern basin is also possible.

There has been la nina like atmosphere over the past month, but that is atmospheric lag from the winter Nina.


Gonna have to respectfully disagree on the notion that we may not see El-Nino by ASO.

2009s Nino didn't materialize until June really and only got going in July. It shut down the Atlantic Hurricane season soon after.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#51 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:21 pm

I'm definitely not saying this year will be as busy as 2008. That year was fairly above average overall. I am foreseeing a relatively average year in activity, numbers, ACE, and whatnot. It's just interesting that there was a little warming in 2008 as well.

I also forgot one other decent example of this kind of trend: 1985. That year came two years after the 1982-83 event, and yes 1983 was plenty warm in the EPAC MDR despite showing La Nina at the Equator. 1985 featured Elena in the Gulf and Gloria on the East Coast, but the EPAC MDR that year was fairly warm as well. The EPAC season had 20 named storms, which is really only typical when it is warmer than average there. However, like 1959, there was La Nina at the Equator.

It's actually ironic I mention 1959, 1985, and 1992, as those were the analogs I picked out for last year at about this time. But in hindsight they weren't as solid for 2016 as 2003 was, or maybe 1958. Those years actually came off of decent El Nino years, like 2016 did. This year looks better to compare with 1959, 1985, and 1992, given the circumstances of a warm EPAC but being two years after another warm EPAC year with a lag in between (like 1985), or coming off a Modoki event (1958 and 1991 were such events). However, 2008 is in the ballpark as well with that weak warming near the peak of that year.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#52 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:36 am

Last update before the 2017 season begins.

The EPAC does seem like it has cooled, where hurricanes are supposed to develop. Meanwhile, the equatorial waters are flirting with warm-neutral territory, and trying to sneak in El Nino. I am not convinced at this point that any El Nino will be very powerful though, as the sub-surface waters just don't seem there to produce much in that part of the world.

With this all said.... the experiment is about to begin. With 2015 being the most recent traditional El Nino year, will the streak of powerful hurricanes reaching the United States continue this year, or will the trend be bucked? Remember, all it takes is one category 3 or higher hurricane, and/or one hurricane with a pressure of below 965 mb, reaching the US coast to keep the trend going. This has happened in every hurricane season falling two years after the most recent traditional El Nino year since at least the 1950s - or the year immediately after a Modoki event. 2017 meets the first criteria.

Here is to hoping the trend is bucked, but everyone please be ready and vigilant. Have a very safe hurricane season everybody.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#53 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:06 pm

I just had to bump this. To Andrew92, you sir, have just been put into storm2k's legend of a great prediction. Credit where credit is due.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#54 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:12 pm

Oh my god I forgot about this theory.

Your theory being proven right...OMG!
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#55 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:23 pm

SERIOUSLY, WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE SECOND YEAR AFTER AN EL NINO?????

Shouting aside, to be honest, watching the live video from Jeff Piotrowski and knowing what we will see when this is all done, I feel a bit guilty taking credit for such a prediction. However, the fact of the matter is these are just the most dangerous years for hurricanes reaching the United States, going back to the 1950s. I would have given my right limb to see 2017 buck the trend, but with Harvey now added to the list of majors to strike in a second year after a traditional El Nino, the long streak of such years featuring one of these powerful hurricanes reaching the US remains alive.

Hurricanes have hit the land know today as the United States for millions of years. You could probably figure about somewhere between one quarter and one third of them, roughly, were El Nino - thus, creating many years eligible for the criteria. Surely there have probably been some seasons here and there that qualified, but didn't see it happen. Not just to avoid the human suffering that comes with a storm like Harvey, but it would be incredibly fascinating to see such a year without it happen from a scientific standpoint.

But, the odds are still very slim, at least according to what we have to work with. I don't completely trust El Nino data prior to 1950, which is why I stick to years since the 1950s. How do we know, for instance, that a year listed as El Nino wasn't a classical Modoki? Or maybe a La Nina, but featuring an EPAC MDR with extremely warm anomalies, like 1959 or 1992.

But 2017 isn't over. We still have all of September to go still, and you never know what will happen that month, except that the storms will more than likely take place somewhere in the Atlantic. Hopefully, it happens far out at sea, but just because it's now happened, does not mean anyone anywhere else can let their guard down. Two-strike years have happened before amongst these nasty years, and it could occur again later this year.

For now, good luck and Godspeed to Texas with Harvey. Praying for healing and a fast recovery.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#56 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:22 pm

Welp. 2 years after a Super El Nino we get two supercanes.
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#57 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:39 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Welp. 2 years after a Super El Nino we get two supercanes.

And we haven't even gotten to October yet
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#58 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:14 am

You nailed it this year... Great prediction & analysis...
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#59 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:45 pm

I can't say that I feel good about getting this right though. It's never worth it to also see the suffering from hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Unfortunately, given the historical trend since the 1950s, one bad storm wasn't surprising at all. But this year has even blown me away.

There is one lesson though that I think needs to be taken from this season. Back in July and the first half of August, there were quite a few comparisons to 2013, with some even going as far as to start the "season cancel" posts. 2013 was NOT the second year after an El Nino, like this year is. The main lesson? It's never a good idea to declare a season will be quiet just because we haven't had a hurricane though August 10 - most especially in the first two years after the last El Nino.

Look at 1967 for just a minute. That year was likewise two years after an El Nino, but we had no named storms until the last week of August! Imagine the boards that year until that point. But Beulah still came around in September.

Godspeed to all who have been affected by the storms this year, and hopefully there really are no more bad ones. But always remain prepared just in case.

-Andrew92
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Re: Two years after El Nino's end...

#60 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:30 pm

Andrew92 wrote:I can't say that I feel good about getting this right though. It's never worth it to also see the suffering from hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Unfortunately, given the historical trend since the 1950s, one bad storm wasn't surprising at all. But this year has even blown me away.

There is one lesson though that I think needs to be taken from this season. Back in July and the first half of August, there were quite a few comparisons to 2013, with some even going as far as to start the "season cancel" posts. 2013 was NOT the second year after an El Nino, like this year is. The main lesson? It's never a good idea to declare a season will be quiet just because we haven't had a hurricane though August 10 - most especially in the first two years after the last El Nino.

Look at 1967 for just a minute. That year was likewise two years after an El Nino, but we had no named storms until the last week of August! Imagine the boards that year until that point. But Beulah still came around in September.

Godspeed to all who have been affected by the storms this year, and hopefully there really are no more bad ones. But always remain prepared just in case.

-Andrew92


Hurricane Beulah dumped heavy rain over a large area.

Hurricane Beulah - September 8-24, 1967
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... h1967.html
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