2013 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

on the heels of a very active 2012 season with 25 named storm, 16 typhoons, 10 major typhoons (3-cat 3, 4 cat 4, 3 cat 5)...including 2 TD = 27 tropical cyclones...with an ACE of 304.473...You would think this is a record breaking season for us here but guess what, this is just a baby compared to our most active seasons....

So how does everyone see the 2013 WPAC Season panning out?

The next 25 names to be used are:

Sonamu - Shanshan - Yagi - Leepi - Bebinca - Rumbia - Soulik - Cimaron - Jebi - Mangkhut - Utor - Trami - Kong-rey - Yutu - Toraji - Man-yi - Usagi - Pabuk - Wutip - Sepat - Fitow - Danas - Nari - Wipha - Francisco

[supercane4867]

ECMWF indicates a possible depression to develop in the S China Sea on January 5th

[euro6208]

models develop a system in the south china sea and yet another system is forecast to develop south of guam but is very far out at 240 hours

[dexterlabio]

so the Euro and GFS are coming up with the same solution. possibly 2 systems right ahead in January? That's pretty crazy.

This must be because of the strong MJO wave coming our way. and it's painful to think that these systems are likely heading towards heavily-devastated areas.

[euro6208]

DOD - JTWC - http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC
RSMC - JMA - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

National Meteorological Services:
China - CMA - http://www.typhoon.gov.cn/en/index.php
Guam - NWS - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/
Hong Kong, China - HKO - http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm
Korea, Republic of - KMA - http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/typoon/typhoon.jsp
Macau, China - SMG - http://www.smg.gov.mo/www/cvm/typhoon/f ... onmain.htm
Micronesia, Federated States of - NWS - see Guam
Northern Mariana Islands - NWS - see Guam
Philippines - PAGASA - http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php ... Itemid=376
Singapore - MSS - http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/pp/ssops/typhoon/ts.htm
Taiwan, Republic of China - CWB - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
Thailand - TMD - http://www.tmd.go.th/en/storm_tracking.php
Vietnam - NCHMF - http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/70/102/Default.aspx
Lao PDR - DMH - http://dmhlao.etllao.com/

Western Pacific Weather - http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
Typhoon2000 - http://www.typhoon2000.ph/


feel free to add if you know of any more valuable sites...

[euro6208]

our first named storm - sonamu (01W) develops...

[euro6208]

a strengthening strong MJO is already impacting the wpac with eastward propagation to our area imminent in the coming few days





it already looks like the summer months out here but it's only january! this season might be busy...

[euro6208]

talk about a strong mjo! could this spawn our 2nd cyclone of the season??? models don't develop anything but that could change...

will we ever get a break!?!?

[euro6208]

a strong mjo is established over the wpac...now the waiting game continues...

[euro6208]

over the past 24 hours, wind shear has dereased dramatically...who said that at this time of year the wpac won't be favorable??? if anything manages to develop, it might be something big...this season might start off fast...

[euro6208]

[CrazyC83]

There's that 950mb or so monster low near Japan - is that of any threat to become tropical? Models bring it down to below 940 and perhaps 930...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Satellite image

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

a large area of low pressure forecast to remain over our area in this latest January update...looks like a busy season ahead...

[euro6208]

1996 - 30 TS 21 TY 10 MT 5 CAT 4 3 CAT 5 43 TC
1997- 31 TS 21 TY 12 MT 1 CAT 4 10 CAT 5 33 TC
1998 17 ts 9 ty 4 mt 3 cat 4 1 cat 5 27 TC
1999- 25 ts 12 ty 5 mt 1 cat 4 1 cat 5 36 TC
2000 25 ts 14 ty 7 mt 3 cat 4 3 cat 5 37 TC
2001 29 ts 21 ty 12 mt 5 cat 4 2 cat 5 37 TC
2002 27 ts 17 ty 12 mt 8 cat 4 3 cat 5 39 TC
2003 22 ts 17 ty 10 mt 7 cat 4 2 cat 5 30 TC
2004 32 ts 21 ty 13 mt 8 cat 4 4 cat 5 34 TC
2005 24 ts 16 ty 9 mt 7 cat 4 2 cat 5 26 TC
2006 24 ts 15 ty 11 mt 6 cat 4 4 cat 5 30 TC
2007 25 ts 15 ty 8 mt 6 cat 4 1 cat 5 28 TC
2008 27 ts 12 ty 8 mt 4 cat 4 1 cat 5 27 TC
2009 23 ts 15 ty 7 mt 3 cat 4 4 cat 5 28 TC
2010 15 ts 8 ty 4 mt 1 cat 4 1 cat 5 20 TC
2011 20 ts 10 ty 7 mt 4 cat 4 2 cat 5 27 TC
2012 25 ts 16 ty 10 mt 4 cat 4 3 cat 5 27 TC

2013 ???

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My prediction:
-------------------------------UNOFFICIAL-------------------------------
33 Tropical Depressions
28 Tropical Storms
18 Typhoons
9 Typhoons of Cat. 3 and above
6 Super Typhoons
4 Category 5 Super Typhoons

Strongest storm: Utor - 205 km/h/280 km/h - 900 hPa
Deadliest storm: Danas - 500+ fatalities
Costliest storm: Danas - $3.4 billion

First storm: Sonamu - Jan. 1
Last storm: Krosa - Dec. 18

Accumulated cyclone energy: over 310 in units

[euro6208]

My early february numbers are:

27 Tropical Storms
20 Typhoons
15 Major Typhoons
5 Category 4
7 Category 5

Total: 33 TC including 6 TD's with a TOTAL ACE of 320

Most devastating and killer storm??? any name is possible, it's scary to think of...

Next 24 names:

Shanshan - Yagi - Leepi - Bebinca - Rumbia - Soulik - Cimaron - Jebi - Mangkhut - Utor - Trami - Kong-rey - Yutu - Toraji - Man-yi - Usagi - Pabuk - Wutip - Sepat - Fitow - Danas - Nari - Wipha - Francisco

[dexterlabio]

hahaha i like that there are people making predictions already.

Not really sure about mine but looking at the current ENSO status and the way it's projected to be as of now, I think the coming season will be similar to 2001 and 2008. (neutral, going warmer towards the end of the year). Easy guess for me is that Okinawa and other nearby southern Japanese islands will see some typhoons as the season starts to get busy..maybe early May or late April.. Luzon might had fared well from TC's last year but this year, I think people in there should be ready. Taiwan will also get some TC's, maybe at least 2 typhoons affecting Taiwan around June or July.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My Mid-February Numbers:

39 : Tropical Depressions
28 : Tropical Storms
20 : Typhoons (Official)
12 : Major Typhoons (Cat. 3 and up)
7 : Super Typhoons (Unofficial)
4 : Category 5 Super Typhoons

ADDITIONAL:
33 : JTWC Tropical Depressions
23 : JTWC Typhoons

FACTS:
Utor : Strongest Storm - 205 km/h, 900 hPa, 280 km/h
Sepat : Deadliest Storm - 400+ casualties, $900 million+ damages
Danas : Costliest Storm - 100+ casualties, $3.5 billion damages

UNOFFICIAL TRACK OF UTOR:


NAMES:
Sonamu - Shanshan - Yagi - Leepi - Bebinca - Rumbia - Soulik - Cimaron - Jebi - Mangkhut - Utor - Trami - Yutu - Toraji - Man-yi - Toraji - Man-yi - Usagi - Pabuk - Wutip - Sepat - Fitow - Danas - Nari - Wipha - Francisco - Lekima - Krosa
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL NUMBERS. SO PLEASE DON'T TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY. JUST A PREDICTION.