Most retired letter?

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HurrMark
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Re: Most retired letter?

#41 Postby HurrMark » Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:47 am

It would make sense for I to be up there...if we have been averaging 15 storms a season, the ninth storm would generally be peak season. Lately, we have seemed to have a lot of early season storms which tend to be weak. No A's retired since 2001 (which was a tropical storm...so not strong intensity wise - just an incredible amount of rain). And no B's since Bob in 1991. Expect those streaks to continue (unless the Azores suggest Alex should be retired)

It's actually very odd with all the recent I's that are retired that H has not been retired in 20 years.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:08 pm

HurrMark wrote:It would make sense for I to be up there...if we have been averaging 15 storms a season, the ninth storm would generally be peak season. Lately, we have seemed to have a lot of early season storms which tend to be weak. No A's retired since 2001 (which was a tropical storm...so not strong intensity wise - just an incredible amount of rain). And no B's since Bob in 1991. Expect those streaks to continue (unless the Azores suggest Alex should be retired)

It's actually very odd with all the recent I's that are retired that H has not been retired in 20 years.


Nowadays to get an A storm retired, it seems that you need a really quiet season or a major flood disaster. Even Andrew (1992) would not have been named such had current naming procedures and reanalyses been in place.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#43 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:51 pm

HurrMark wrote:It would make sense for I to be up there...if we have been averaging 15 storms a season, the ninth storm would generally be peak season. Lately, we have seemed to have a lot of early season storms which tend to be weak. No A's retired since 2001 (which was a tropical storm...so not strong intensity wise - just an incredible amount of rain). And no B's since Bob in 1991. Expect those streaks to continue (unless the Azores suggest Alex should be retired)

It's actually very odd with all the recent I's that are retired that H has not been retired in 20 years.


Hanna from 2008 would have been the best shot for an H storm to be retired. But of course Haiti did not make a request.

And on another note, there was an unnamed tropical storm from 1988, that formed before Gilbert, meaning that if it had been detacted, Gilbert would have been Helene instead (and Joan would have been Keith). Gilbert could have still been retired in 1994 if Haiti actually filed for retirement and Gordon could have still been the replacement for 2000. And Kirk would have been retired in 2000 as well had that unnamed storm been detacted and named.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#44 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:49 pm

Lately, Youtuber ForceThirteen has been doing tracks for what-might-have-been Hurricane Seasons, 1979 to present. It's actually pretty interesting.

So far, he's done up to 1993. Some of the seasons are very interesting so far. So here are things to note.

- There were some subtropical storms that had formed in some seasons. Obviously, one of them from the 1992 season. Andrew would have been named Bonnie instead. There was also a subtropical storm in 1990 that later became tropical, thus Edouard. And it formed before Diana, which meant in modern naming, Diana would have been named first and Diana would have instead been Edouard.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:47 pm

So far no 2016 names look headed for the dustbin, but if models are right, Matthew (or Nicole if something forms fast) could be a candidate.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:48 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Lately, Youtuber ForceThirteen has been doing tracks for what-might-have-been Hurricane Seasons, 1979 to present. It's actually pretty interesting.

So far, he's done up to 1993. Some of the seasons are very interesting so far. So here are things to note.

- There were some subtropical storms that had formed in some seasons. Obviously, one of them from the 1992 season. Andrew would have been named Bonnie instead. There was also a subtropical storm in 1990 that later became tropical, thus Edouard. And it formed before Diana, which meant in modern naming, Diana would have been named first and Diana would have instead been Edouard.


Another factor that could change names is if they are found in reanalysis to be a tropical storm sooner than currently analyzed, which could shift their order down. Also (before 2002) if they were subtropical first, they would get the name sooner, hence some would change order.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#47 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 2:38 pm

Another thing I noticed in his videos, is that Bob from 1991 would have actually been Claudette. And Bret in 1993 would actually been Cindy as a Category 3 hurricane. And both Claudette and Cindy would have been retired. Personally, I always thought Bret had a warrant for retirement due to the death total. But a hurricane at the time would have been more believable.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#48 Postby Iune » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:So far no 2016 names look headed for the dustbin, but if models are right, Matthew (or Nicole if something forms fast) could be a candidate.

Are you sure? I'd think Earl would have a decent shot at retirement due its deaths, and maybe Hermine due to the ~$500 million in damage it caused.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:10 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:So far no 2016 names look headed for the dustbin, but if models are right, Matthew (or Nicole if something forms fast) could be a candidate.

Are you sure? I'd think Earl would have a decent shot at retirement due its deaths, and maybe Hermine due to the ~$500 million in damage it caused.


I'd give Earl about a 30% chance (maybe on the death toll) and Hermine a fairly low chance since 500M is not exceptional in the US these days.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#50 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:08 pm

Matthew is definitely getting retired now, so M will have four retired names. Two of them being the replacements for their originals.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:50 pm

Updating this to 2016 and 2017 presumptions, the letters of all retired names:

A - Agnes, Alicia, Allen, Allison, Andrew, Anita, Audrey (7)

B - Betsy, Beulah, Bob (3)

C - Camille, Carla, Carmen, Carol, Celia, Cesar, Charley, Cleo, Connie (9)

D - David, Dean, Dennis, Diana, Diane, Donna, Dora (7)

E - Edna, Elena, Eloise, Erika (4)

F - Fabian, Felix, Fifi, Flora, Floyd, Fran, Frances, Frederic (8)

G - Georges, Gilbert, Gloria, Gustav (4)

H - Harvey, Hattie, Hazel, Hilda, Hortense, Hugo (6)

I - Igor, Ike, Inez, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Isidore, Ivan (11)

J - Janet, Jeanne, Joaquin, Joan, Juan (5)

K - Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3)

L - Lenny, Lili, Luis (3)

M - Maria, Marilyn, Matthew, Michelle, Mitch (5)

N - Noel (1)

O - Opal, Otto (2)

P - Paloma (1)

R - Rita, Roxanne (2)

S - Sandy, Stan (2)

T - Tomas (1)

V - none (0)

W - Wilma (1)

Greek - none (0)
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Re: Most retired letter?

#52 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:54 pm

Updating CrazyC's list now that 2017 retirements have officially been confirmed

A - Agnes, Alicia, Allen, Allison, Andrew, Anita, Audrey (7)

B - Betsy, Beulah, Bob (3)

C - Camille, Carla, Carmen, Carol, Celia, Cesar, Charley, Cleo, Connie (9)

D - David, Dean, Dennis, Diana, Diane, Donna, Dora (7)

E - Edna, Elena, Eloise, Erika (4)

F - Fabian, Felix, Fifi, Flora, Floyd, Fran, Frances, Frederic (8)

G - Georges, Gilbert, Gloria, Gustav (4)

H - Harvey, Hattie, Hazel, Hilda, Hortense, Hugo (6)

I - Igor, Ike, Inez, Ingrid, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Isidore, Ivan (11)

J - Janet, Jeanne, Joaquin, Joan, Juan (5)

K - Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3)

L - Lenny, Lili, Luis (3)

M - Maria, Marilyn, Matthew, Michelle, Mitch (5)

N - Nate, Noel (2)

O - Opal, Otto (2)

P - Paloma (1)

R - Rita, Roxanne (2)

S - Sandy, Stan (2)

T - Tomas (1)

V - none (0)

W - Wilma (1)
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Re: Most retired letter?

#53 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:13 am

Saw a Facebook post by Brian McNoldy yesterday on retired names. Thought it was interesting to see it graphically. Note that Brian has 6 "G" storms retired, not 4.

I count 5:
Greta - 1978
Gloria - 1985
Gilbert - 1988
Georges - 1998
Gustav - 2008

Interesting that most "G" storms were retired in years ending in 8. Does that mean Gordon is likely to be retired this year? ;-)

Brian's post: https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2018/04/four-names-retired-from-2017-hurricane.html

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Re: Most retired letter?

#54 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:54 am

I checked with Brian McNoldy - he lists Gracie as being retired in 1959, but NOAA doesn't list it as being retired.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#55 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:54 am

Just for fun, I'd thought I'd do a hypothetical scenario, in case the modern naming lists were used starting in 1950 instead of 1979, and if 99% of the storms that weren't named originally were named as they should have been. This is what I came up with with the retired storms, based on what I think should have been retired

1950: David, Elena, Kate (replaced with Danny, Erika and Kelly)
1951: Danielle (replaced with Donna)
1952: Jose (replaced with Jeff)
1953: None
1954: Felix, Hugo and Noel (replaced with Fernanded, Humberto and Nestor)
1955: Bertha, Cesar, Hortense, Isidore and Josephine (replaced with Beulah, Cristobal, Hanna, Ike and Janet)
1956: None
1957: Bonnie (replaced with Brandi)
1958: None
1959: Keith (replaced with Kirk)
1960: Erin (replaced with Eve)
1961: Cristobal and Ike (replaced with Cody and Isaias)
1962: None
1963: Georges (replaced with Gaston)
1964: Emily, Floyd and Jeff (replaced with Elizabeth, Franklin and Jack)
1965: Chris (replaced with Connor)
1966: Iris (replaced with Ingrid)
1967: Beulah (replaced with Betsy)
1968: None
1969: Colin and Frances (replaced with Cameron and Fiona)
1970: Cindy (replaced with Chelsea)
1971: None
1972: Barry (replaced with Brian)
1973: None
1974: Frederic and Isabel (replaced with Fabian and Ida)
1975: Earl (replaced with Everett)
1976: None
1977: Alberto (replaced with Adam)
1978: Humberto (replaced with Hayden)
1979: Diana and Fran (replaced with Dolly and Fay)
1980: Ana (replaced with Audrey)
1981: None
1982: None
1983: Adam (replaced with Anthony)
1984: None
1985: Edouard, Gustav and Janet (replaced with Ethan, Gonzalo and Jennifer)
1986: None
1987: None
1988: Harvey and Katrina (replaced with Harold and Katia)
1989: Helene (replaced with Heather)
1990: Eve and Karen (replaced with Emma and Kylie)
1991: Betsy (replaced with Brittany)
1992: Bob (replaced with Bill)
1993: Brandi and Gaston (replaced with Brooke and Gavin)
1994: Arlene and Gert (replaced with Ashley and Gretchen)
1995: Leslie, Michael, Oscar and Rafael (replaced with Lindsay, Malcolm, Olly and Robert)
1996: Chantal, Fernand and Hayden (replaced with Courtney, Flynn and Heath)
1997: None
1998: Bill, Gloria and Mindy (replaced with Brandon, Grace and Megan)
1999: Fiona and Lisa (replaced with Faith and Lauren)
2000: Katia (replaced with Kendra)
2001: Anthony, Isaac and Malcolm (replaced with Austin, Irving and Mark)
2002: Ingrid and Luis (replaced with Imelda and Lorenzo)
2003: Fay, Isaias and Jennifer (replaced with Felicity, Iggy and Jessica)
2004: Claudette, Fabian, Ida and Juan (replaced with Crystal, Fred, Ivy and Joaquin)
2005: Donna, Everett, Karl, Richard, Shary and Walter (replaced with Delaney, Easton, Kurt, Ryan, Samantha and Wyatt)
2006: None
2007: Debby, Florence and Nadine (replaced with Danica, Fatima and Naomi)
2008: Dean, Gabrielle, Heath, Imelda and Pablo (replaced with Dorian, Gwen, Harley, Inna and Preston)
2009: None
2010: Audrey, Ivy, Kelly, Megan and Teresa (replaced with Amber, Ivana, Kristina, Miranda and Tiffany)
2011: Ivan (replaced with Igor)
2012: Irene and Stan (replaced with Irma and Sean)
2013: Irving (replaced with Ira)
2014: None
2015: Ethan and Jessica (replaced with Evan and Jordan)
2016: Erika, Miranda and Odette (replaced with Elsa, Monica and Odessa)
2017: Hermine, Igor, Mitch and Nicole (replaced with Heidi, Ian, Matthew and Natalie)

I'll count how many names per each letter in the morning, but it's pretty interesting I think.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#56 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:00 pm

I've updated my hypothetical with the seasons from 1900 to present of retired names if 99% of storms were named operationally and the modern naming list had been used each time.

1900: Ana (replaced with Audrey)
1901: None
1902: None
1903: Beryl and Debby (replaced with Betsy and Donna)
1904: Alicia (replaced with Allison)
1905: None
1906: Frederic and Henri (replaced with Fabian and Horace)
1907: None
1908: None
1909: Florence, Isaac and Leslie (replaced with Farrah, Ira and Lois)
1910: Erin (replaced with Edna)
1911: None
1912: Gloria (replaced with Grace)
1913: None
1914: None
1915: Betsy and Farrah (replaced with Beulah and Flossie)
1916: Barry, Dean and Felix (replaced with Bert, Dorian and Fernand)
1917: Diana (replaced with Dolly)
1918: Audrey (replaced with Agnes)
1919: Bonnie (replaced with Blanche)
1920: None
1921: Chris and Flossie (replaced with Cameron and Felicity)
1922: None
1923: None
1924: David and Juan (replaced with Danny and Joaquin)
1925: None
1926: Arlene, Gert and Jose (replaced with Anita, Greta and John)
1927: Alberto (replaced with Atticus)
1928: Bert and Dorian (replaced with Brian and Darren)
1929: Bertha (replaced with Betty)
1930: Bob (replaced with Bill)
1931: Frances (replaced with Fiona)
1932: Bret, Dennis, Irene and Nate (replaced with Brandon, Don, Irma and Nigel)
1933: Beulah, Felicity, Gilbert, Helene, Keith, Lois, Michael and Nadine (replaced with Belle, Faryl, Gordon, Hattie, Kirk, Lucy, Mark and Nancy)
1934: Allison (replaced with Andrea)
1935: Cesar, Edouard and Fay (replaced with Cristobal, Edgar and Felicia)
1936: None
1937: None
1938: Floyd (replaced with Franklin)
1939: None
1940: Darren (replaced with Damien)
1941: Betty, Dolly and Edgar (replaced with Bridget, Dora and Elliott)
1942: Claudette (replaced with Carmen)
1943: Allen (replaced with Andrew)
1944: Don, Greta and Maria (replaced with Darwin, Gladys and Margot)
1945: Ernesto and Ira (replaced with Edwin and Irving)
1946: None
1947: Bridget and Dora (replaced with Bess and Daisy)
1948: Horace and Isabel (replaced with Herbert and Ida)
1949: Blanche (replaced with Brenda)
1950: Darwin, Emily and Katrina (replaced with Derek, Eloise and Katia)
1951: Donna (replaced with Diane)
1952: Jerry (replaced with Jeff)
1953: None
1954: Fabian, Herbert and Nicholas (replaced with Fred, Harry and Neil)
1955: Brenda, Charley, Hermine, Ivan and Julia (replaced with Barbara, Colin, Heather, Igor and Janet)
1956: None
1957: Belle (replaced with Brandi)
1958: None
1959: Klaus (replaced with Kyle)
1960: Elena (replaced with Erika)
1961: Colin and Igor (replaced with Cody and Ian)
1962: None
1963: Gordon (replaced with Gavin)
1964: Damien, Edna and Jeff (replaced with Dustin, Elizabeth and Jack)
1965: Cristobal (replaced with Connor)
1966: Ida (replaced with Inez)
1967: Barbara (replaced with Becky)
1968: none
1969: Cameron and Faryl (replaced with Chad and Fifi)
1970: Chantal (replaced with Chelsea)
1971: None
1972: Bill (replaced with Blake)
1973: None
1974: Franklin and Irma (replaced with Flynn and Idalia)
1975: Edwin (replaced with Emmett)
1976: None
1977: Arthur (replaced with Arnold)
1978: None
1979: Danielle and Fiona (replaced with Denise and Flora)
1980: Anita (replaced with Angela)
1981: None
1982: None
1983: Arnold (replaced with Adam)
1984: None
1985: Earl, Gaston and Janet (replaced with Ethan, Garrett and Jennifer)
1986: None
1987: None
1988: Hugo and Karen (replaced with Humberto and Kelly)
1989: Hanna (replaced with Heidi)
1990: Erika and Kate (replaced with Elsa and Kylie)
1991: Becky (replaced with Brittany)
1992: Brandon (replaced with Brad)
1993: Brandi and Gavin (replaced with Brooke and Griffin)
1994: Andrea and Gabrielle (replaced with Ashley and Gretchen)
1995: Lili, Marco, Omar and Rene (replaced with Laura, Malcolm, Olly and Robert)
1996: Carmen, Fred and Harry (replaced with Courtney, Franco and Heath)
1997: None
1998: Brad, Gladys and Margot (replaced with Brock, Giselle and Megan)
1999: Fifi and Lucy (replaced with Francesca and Lola)
2000: Kelly (replaced with Kendra)
2001: Adam, Isidore and Malcolm (replaced with Austin, Ike and Micah)
2002: Inez and Larry (replaced with Ione and Lucas)
2003: Flora, Ian and Jennifer (replaced with Felina, Ichabod and Jessica)
2004: Cindy, Flynn, Idalia and John (replaced with Crystal, Fitzgerald, Ivana and Justin)
2005: Diane, Emmett, Kirk, Rafael, Sandy and William (replaced with Daphne, Everett, Kellan, Ryan, Sara and Wyatt)
2006: None
2007: Dora, Felicia and Nana (replaced with Destiny, Fatima and Naomi)
2008: Danny, Grace, Heath, Ione, Peter (replaced with Dalton, Gigi, Hayden, Imogen and Preston)
2009: None
2010: Angela, Ivana, Katia, Megan and Rita (replaced with Amber, Ivy, Kristina, Miranda and Rina)
2011: Irving (replaced with Iggy)
2012: Iris and Sebastien (replaced with Ingrid and Spencer)
2013: Ike (replaced with Isaias)
2014: None
2015: Ethan and Jessica (replaced with Evan and Jordan)
2016: Eloise, Miranda and Ophelia (replaced with Emma, Monica and Odessa)
2017: Hattie, Iggy, Mark and Nancy (replaced with Hayley, Irvin, Milo and Natalie)
Last edited by HurricaneRyan on Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Most retired letter?

#57 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:26 pm

I believe that there are seven storms that should have been retired from usage.

1985 - Juan, Kate
1994 - Gordon
1996 - Bertha
1998 - Bonnie
2005 - Emily
2008 - Hanna
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Re: Most retired letter?

#58 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:38 am

Thanks everyone for the research. I would have guessed I, C surprised me though.
I would like to know if high number of “C’s” was because of early season storms or late season starts?
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Re: Most retired letter?

#59 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:57 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Thanks everyone for the research. I would have guessed I, C surprised me though.
I would like to know if high number of “C’s” was because of early season storms or late season starts?


7 of the 9 "C" names that were retired came before 1979, when male names were added to the lists. No female "C" names have ever been retired since then.

Only 2 of the 11 retired "I" names (Ione and Inez) came before 1979.

There are at least three factors influencing this:

The 1970s were the lowest point of the "Multidecadal Oscillation."

Subtropical storms have only received names since 2002.

With satellites and other instruments becoming ever more sophisticated, any tropical system where sustained winds reach the criterion for getting a name for even a few hours is now probably being named, where many of those minimal short-lived tropical storms might have been missed before.

The three factors above combine to mean that the most severe hurricanes, those most likely to have their names retired if they hit land, were likely to have names starting with "C" in the early decades of hurricane naming, while in the last three decades with the increase in the total number of named storms, the peak of intensity is more likely to occur around "I".
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Re: Most retired letter?

#60 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:38 pm

I think better satellite and recon data hurts the chances that earlier storms end up retired.

For example, two tropical depressions in 1985 for all we know could have briefly ended up named today. If so, Hurricane "Gloria" would have been "Isabel".

In 1992, if the subtropical storm in April had been named, Hurricane "Andrew" would have been "Bonnie", and had the other two depressions prior to Andrew been named, Andrew would have been Hurricane Danielle.
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