Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

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tailgater
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Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#1 Postby tailgater » Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:10 am

Levi Cowan mentioned that this wave axis/ surge of moisture that was associated with Chantal might be something to watch. there is a lot of shear in the area now but he thought that as the upper low and though over the central US was to retograded and conditions should improve.
I was noticing that this area seems to have a weak twist to it on the visible sat loop, probably not at the surface. but maybe something to watch in the coming days.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Jul 15, 2013 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:21 am

This sounds similar to what we were saying about a week ago, waiting to see if anything would develop and move into MX or TX. The shear never subsided enough so I don't know if I expect anything different to happen this time.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#3 Postby lrak » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:59 am

Last edited by lrak on Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#4 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:24 pm

lrak wrote:http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.67&lon=-87.88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&numframes=15


I think about this video everytime someone posts a link with no commentary or description.

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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#5 Postby lrak » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:28 pm

I'm not much for words and love your post lol.
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#6 Postby Airboy » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:36 am

I wonder if the disturbance i south GOM, NW of Yucatan could be something to watch?
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#7 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:35 am

:uarrow:Shear would really have to decrease across the GOM for this area to have any chance to develop.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#8 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:51 pm

This area is really firing some convection this afternoon...still nothing showing at the surface:

Image

Upper level winds appear to be dying down in the SW Gulf...although they are still too high for "traditional" tropical development:

Now:
Image

24 hours ago:
Image
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#9 Postby baytownwx » Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:11 pm

Current 850 mb Vorticity

Image
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan

#10 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:13 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013


GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR 34N99W THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
SOUTHEAST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR 23N92W. WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED OVER
INLAND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 91W OVER THE NW GULF...PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MAXIMIZED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 88W-92W...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE E OF 90W. AS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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#11 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:53 pm

Deserving of a Yellow Circle? 0% :lol: At least it should bring some much needed rainfall towards my area :D

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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Southern GOM

#12 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:55 pm

Well the wave/trough has moved out into the Southern GOM and Northern and seems to be tracking NWard, looks like the tail end of the Upper trough is cutting off right over the top the lower level trough so chances are pretty slim for development even though convection has increased today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-wv.html

Should bring some rains for southern TX and NE MEX.
Conditions should be favorable east of the cut off low
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#13 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 15, 2013 5:24 pm

I am noticing some definite turning just NW of the Yucatan. Buoy Station 42055 is showing lowering pressures as well.
Image
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#14 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jul 15, 2013 6:43 pm

Well, NHC did not give this area a mention at all in their 8 PM TWO. Apparently, they don't see this area doing anything as well as upper level conditions are too unfavorable.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#15 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:35 pm

I wasn't considering this much at all before today but just since this afternoon there has been a pronounced, much tighter MLC developing there. I circled it in the attached 1 km visible image. If you watch the satellite loops you can easily see the spin that has developed.

Image
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#16 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:42 pm

Good mid level vorticity there but nothig at the surface reflected, nothing but easterly winds underneath it. It will have to be persistent for a few days before anything gets going, if at all.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#17 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:51 pm

In the last few frames on RGB it looks like an area of low clouds on the southern side below my circle were moving from west to east and northeast. My eyes could be playing tricks on me, and so I'd want to see a lot more, but this is an area where things can spin up really fast. It probably has a day or two since steering is really weak down there. Worth watching.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#18 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:I wasn't considering this much at all before today but just since this afternoon there has been a pronounced, much tighter MLC developing there. I circled it in the attached 1 km visible image. If you watch the satellite loops you can easily see the spin that has developed.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat1kmgom2013-07-152340anno_zps8184c37e.jpg


Definitely nothing at the surface. BoC buoy just NW of your circled area has had SE wind at 10-15 kts all day. Not too concerned about development there. Interesting long-range GFS. Activity looks like it may be picking up on schedule as July ends.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#19 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:06 pm

I thought that was at the mid levels also but for such a define voricity, CIMSS isn't showing much at 750mb or 500mb and the upper levels winds show a low at that position. I also saw a cloud deck moving westward in the last few frames that didn't look to at the upper levels :double: . Might be just a dying MLC
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Re: Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

#20 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:30 pm

Upper level winds continue to die down:

NOW:
Image

30 hours ago:
Image
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