This thread is for the tropical wave over western Africa with a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days. What are the models showing in terms of strength?
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Wave Emerging West Africa (Is Invest 96L)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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hurricanes1234
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Tropical Wave Emerging West Africa (Is Invest 96L)
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0%/20%): Pouch 27L
This has been designated as Pouch 27L.
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P27L.html
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P27L.html
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0%/20%): Pouch 27L
My apologies... 
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0%/20%): Pouch 27L
hurricanes1234 wrote:My apologies...
That is ok. Pouch 26L was used for Northern GOM area.
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alienstorm
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This one is being develop by the GFS hits the Cape Verde Islands and goes out to sea.
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Gustywind
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Pouch group analysis for Pouch 27L.
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 082700.txt
SYNOPSIS 2013082700
P27L
12N, 0W
700 hPa
ECMWF: OW peaks at 84 hours just off the African coast. One of the reasons why the OW value is low at 120 hours is because I assign a position between two OW centers.
GFS: Initial position has shifted to the NE to agree with ECMWF and UKMET. Develops into a storm after leaving the coast.
UKMET: Similar to ECMWF.
NAVGEM:
HWRF-GEN: Easily tracked. Develops into a storm.
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 082700.txtSYNOPSIS 2013082700
P27L
12N, 0W
700 hPa
ECMWF: OW peaks at 84 hours just off the African coast. One of the reasons why the OW value is low at 120 hours is because I assign a position between two OW centers.
GFS: Initial position has shifted to the NE to agree with ECMWF and UKMET. Develops into a storm after leaving the coast.
UKMET: Similar to ECMWF.
NAVGEM:
HWRF-GEN: Easily tracked. Develops into a storm.
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Extratropical94
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Up to 0%/30%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
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- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re:
Thread title needs updating.Extratropical94 wrote:Up to 0%/30%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Gustywind
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From San Juan NWS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED AUG 28 2013
LONG RANGE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA.
MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...NHC...IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED AUG 28 2013
LONG RANGE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA.
MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...NHC...IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Pouch 27L) 0% / 30%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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stauglocal
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Pouch 27L) 0% / 30%
Just give it a couple of days and the GFS will back off this one as well.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Pouch 27L) 0% / 30%
The GFS is bringing this farther west with each run of the model even though its still a fish making it to 57W but I also notice the bias of bringing storms north while emerging off of africa which has to be taken into account
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Hurricaneman
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The 12zGFS keeps this as a weak low now, whoever said this is going to change to less development on the GFS was right but I must say what it had before seemed unrealistic IMO. This run seems more realistic
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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'CaneFreak
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Re:
Yeah, these parameterization issues are getting old. This has been going on for years and they still don't have a fix for it? Gimme a break.
Alyono wrote:surprise surprise
GFS backs off developing this system
NCEP really needs to fix their parameterization issues. This spinning things up in the monsoon trough is really AWFUL modeling, and a problem that they should not be having
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SeGaBob
Down to 0%/20%.
From NHC
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
From NHC
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
ANTICIPATED EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Pouch 27L) 0% / 20%
If this develops at all, we would most likely see a minimal, poorly developed storm out of it, am I correct? I am fairly new to this, so mistakes are common.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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ninel conde
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at least it didnt immediately evaporate once over water.
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