Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean (Pouch 24L)

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS seems to be pretty robust with this coming off of Africa in 2 days, may be our next development but it will depend on if the air destabilizes or stays dry and dries it out

[cycloneye]

Is new pouch 24L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P24L.html

[gatorcane]

Looks like this one goes fishing on this run of the GFS. Even though this is way out there at 348 hours, the recurve track starts much sooner on this run because it develops more quickly once it rolls off Africa.

[Riptide]

Pouch 24L crashes into PR (as a weak TC) and the fish cane is the wave behind this one, unless there is a wave between 24L and 23L that I don't see.

[CrazyC83]

Is new pouch 24L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P24L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satana ... _CIMSS.png

What is the red in that, moist air?

[cycloneye]

Is new pouch 24L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P24L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satana ... _CIMSS.png

What is the red in that, moist air?

Yes,is moisture.

[Gustywind]

Pouch group analysis.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 082000.txt


SYNOPSIS 2013082000

P24L
12N, 2E
700 hPa


ECMWF: Pouch center determined for all times. Tracks west and then WNW. OW increases slightly upon hitting the Atlantic.

GFS: Consistent story. Temporarily loses latitude for first ~36 hours. OW values relatively high for a pouch over Africa. Pouch center determined for all times. Phase speed slower than ECMWF and UKMET, but not as slow as in previous forecasts.

UKMET: Uncertain position only in the analysis. Then a distinct pouch tracks westward for the remainder of the five-day forecast. Phase speed is still faster than ECMWF and GFS, but not as fast as in previous forecasts.

NAVGEM: One of the slower models, along with HWRF-GEN. No distinct pouch in the analysis, but there is one for all subsequent times.

HWRF-GEN: Continues to be much slower than the other models, but it is faster than yesterday's 12Z forecast. Like GFS, dips to the south on Day1. OW shoots up after 12 hours. Depicted as a strong pouch when near the African coast.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Imagery:



Looks great on loop.

[Blown Away]

Is this area the 18z GFS develops in a few days?

[cycloneye]

Is this area the 18z GFS develops in a few days?

This is the one but NHC didn't mention it at 8 PM.

[Hurricaneman]

If the GFS is right I suspect this will be 95L by thursday morning and its quite a bit lower in latitude than the previous storms or waves and don't be surprised if this is the first hurricane of the season but also don't be surprised if this dissipates like previous waves if the dry air doesn't leave which is not expected due to the MJO and associated kelvin wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneDREW92]

If the GFS is right I suspect this will be 95L by thursday morning and its quite a bit lower in latitude than the previous storms or waves and don't be surprised if this is the first hurricane of the season but also don't be surprised if this dissipates like previous waves if the dry air doesn't leave which is not expected due to the MJO and associated kelvin wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Amen.

[gatorcane]

If the GFS is right I suspect this will be 95L by thursday morning and its quite a bit lower in latitude than the previous storms or waves and don't be surprised if this is the first hurricane of the season but also don't be surprised if this dissipates like previous waves if the dry air doesn't leave which is not expected due to the MJO and associated kelvin wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am leaning more towards it will become a named system. The past several runs of the GFS have been showing development and within a week. Maybe even a hurricane is eventually possible with this one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

I think the atmosphere isn't quite ready yet, but is in better shape.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest:

[alienstorm]

This one will not develop either - the Atlantic is just not ready

[HurricaneDREW92]

This one will not develop either - the Atlantic is just not ready

Many weather models and mets beg to differ.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I'm thinking this could become fernand or Gabrielle anytime soon. Will probably recurve out to sea, no landfall

[Blown Away]

12z GFS carries our pouch as a wave across the pond and begins to develop a little just east of the Caribbean and then dissipates over the islands...Big fishy at end of 12z run...

[abajan]

Latest:

http://imageshack.us/a/img51/4015/c2si.jpg

Definitely heavy duty convection in southern Mali in that shot. However, let's see what happens when it emerges the coast of Africa.