2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a surface trough
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of
Hawaii. Further development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward into the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up

[hurricanes1234]

There's also another area in the CPAC. Five areas altogether! This reminds me of tropical cyclone dreams I have every so often, where there are numerous areas on the TWO.

2. An area of disturbed weather about 800 miles south-southeast of the Big Island has become a little more organized overnight. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next 48 hours as it moves westward far south of the Hawaiian islands.

[Yellow Evan]

Reminds me of 2008, when we have 2 TC's and 4 AOI/Invests' at a time. Now, we have 5 AOI/Invets' at a time.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has formed
well south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more favorable for development of this system
over the next few days while its moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form during the next couple of
days roughly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm thinking we could have 93E soon.

[cycloneye]

Wow,a new area.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
well south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more favorable for development of this system
over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days roughly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this system is
possible by the weekend while it moves to the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Yet another area of low pressure could form well south of
southeastern Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development
of this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent.

[gatorcane]

Wow the EPAC is just cranking them out left and right....while the Atlantic is as dead as a door nail.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
well south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more favorable for development of this system
over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of low pressure has formed about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some additional
development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves
to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern
Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow the EPAC is just cranking them out left and right....while the Atlantic is as dead as a door nail.

This is like the glory days of the 80's and 90's.

[Yellow Evan]

Even if 91E busts, I still think we can easily have two systems by the end of the weekend.

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure located a little more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized shower activity. There is some potential for
development during the next day or two before the environment
becomes unfavorable. The system is forecast to move toward the west
or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms,
associated with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become
a little more favorable for development of this system over
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of
southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up

Invest 94E is up

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of
southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Last several GFS runs shows multiple TS's, but keep them all weak.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of
southeastern Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF shows forming.

[Yellow Evan]

Last two GFS runs show 0/20 being something trackable:





But keeps the others weak



CMC shows this and ex-Bertha:

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of southern
Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[somethingfunny]

Ex-Bertha?