2014 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS shows the western storm

Deep storm tracking West. Wonder how that will pan out.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows the western storm

Deep storm tracking West. Wonder how that will pan out.

It could I guess threaten Hawaii but it's too far out.



Also, there is the Great Hawaiian Shear

[Yellow Evan]

0z CFS shows stuff in early August. On board with the GFS and the CFS ensembles.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS dropped this, but 12z CMC showed both systems.

[Yellow Evan]

From WPAC thread:







Shows Ana and Ela

Also,



6z GFS showed this but 12z GFS dropped this.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shows a minor hurricane

[hurricanes1234]

Due to the current trend of storms, I'd strongly prefer to wait until it is simultaneously being mentioned on the TWO, is being supported by the models (proper support, not there on one run and absent on the next and fluctuating between a weak tropical storm and hurricane), and of course, conditions are favourable, before I believe that it will become stronger than a weak system which fizzles out before it is expected to. But that's just me, and many of you know that I am on the less aggressive side of the models usually.

[Yellow Evan]

Due to the current trend of storms, I'd strongly prefer to wait until it is simultaneously being mentioned on the TWO, is being supported by the models (proper support, not there on one run and absent on the next and fluctuating between a weak tropical storm and hurricane), and of course, conditions are favourable, before I believe that it will become stronger than a weak system which fizzles out before it is expected to. But that's just me, and many of you know that I am on the less aggressive side of the models usually.

EPAC for the most part is suppose to be very favorable (though the 0z run shows stronger shear) when these storms come around. It'll have a MJO pulse to deal with. This is still a way away from being mentioned on the TWO.

Consistent model support is somewhat rare in the long rangew.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow!! Just look at that bathtub extending a long way off the coast of Mexico AND basically into the whole Gulf of California!



Uploaded using TinyPic.

[TheStormExpert]

Off topic, but it also looks as if the GoM has warmed too some over the past month or so.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow!! Just look at that bathtub extending a long way off the coast of Mexico AND basically into the whole Gulf of California!



Uploaded using TinyPic.

Looks warmer than 2009.

Based on that, there is a strong likelihood of an intense hurricane as we get in the third third of the season.

Ill probably talk about it more as we get closer.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Off topic, but it also looks as if the GoM has warmed too some over the past month or so.

It has. Something to keep an eye on as the heart of the AHS approaches, though I don't wanna get too off topic.

[Yellow Evan]

Actually, I think the aforementioned system is possibly phantom. Models to some extent still show it (though weaker). However, it has it being almost exactly like Fausto (weak, within the deep tropics). The Great Hawaiian shear looks a little east than normal and is cutting off activity north of like 12N. Dry air does not appear to be much of an issue though.

Still, the signals for a more active EPAC in early August is still present; based on CFS forecast, more activity in the EDR is possible, where according to the GFS, will be somewhat favorable. However, my confidence of an increase in activity in a little over a week has diminished, given the weird behaviors of this season thus far, especially in the last 5-6 weeks.


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[hurricanes1234]

Another possible deep-tropics dud in my opinion...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

I won't be at all surprised if the above area fails to go beyond invest status or develops but does little after (much like the past few storms). In fact, I will be surprised if anything other than these two scenarios occurs.

[Yellow Evan]

I won't be at all surprised if the above area fails to go beyond invest status or develops but does little after (much like the past few storms). In fact, I will be surprised if anything other than these two scenarios occurs.

Agreed it'll be dud, though if it moved WNW as predicted it may not form at all.

We've had a lot of borderline TC's/weak TS's this season.

[Yellow Evan]

Is now 91E.

[Yellow Evan]

Same system I talked about earlier this week.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak

[cycloneye]

New area.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.