2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

I understand that this might be a bit early, but how is the 2014 EPAC season looking like it's going to pan out? Below-average like this year? Moderately active like 2011 and 2012? Above-average like 2009?


If it is too early, then this thread could probably be kept until it becomes useful next year.

[Yellow Evan]

Can we get the SHEM started first before worrying about 2014 PHS?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We need to use the winter to figure out what's going on with global tropical cyclone activity in order to incorporate it into next year's forecasts.

[supercane4867]

I'm 100% sure there will be at least one major hurricane next year, perhaps a Cat 4

2013 is an anomaly that we probably won't see a year like this again in decade

[dexterlabio]

I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.


If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...

[Yellow Evan]

I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.


If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...

Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.

I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.

[Hurricane_Luis]

We haven't finished 2013 yet. But I Think that 2014 will be much the same as this year

[hurricanes1234]

We haven't finished 2013 yet. But I Think that 2014 will be much the same as this year

I am not disagreeing with you, but if possible, could you please elaborate on why you think so? I'd love to know.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.


If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...

Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.

I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.

There's Raymond, 110 kts.

[Spin]

Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.

I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.

There's Raymond, 110 kts.

Umm, Yellow Evan posted that on October 15 before Raymond became a major.

[hurricanes1234]

Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.

I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.

There's Raymond, 110 kts.

Umm, Yellow Evan posted that on October 15 before Raymond became a major.

[hurricanes1234]

I've seen a chart that showed that 2014 could be trending towards an event closer to El Niño. Does this mean we might see a season like 2012 happen next year? In my opinion, 2012 was relatively active, with 5 major hurricanes forming, and two of those, including the strongest, in a two-week span in July only.

[Yellow Evan]

I've seen a chart that showed that 2014 could be trending towards an event closer to El Niño. Does this mean we might see a season like 2012 happen next year? In my opinion, 2012 was relatively active, with 5 major hurricanes forming, and two of those, including the strongest, in a two-week span in July only.

2012 was not a real El Nino. It's too early to say. Geez, can we get the SHEM started before thinking about 2014 PHS?

[hurricanes1234]

The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.

I'm going with 17-7-4.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.

I'm going with 17-7-4.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd probably go for 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I think our strongest storm will be a Category 4 hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.

I'm going with 17-7-4.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd probably go for 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I think our strongest storm will be a Category 4 hurricane.

Reasonable, but in case this upcoming possible El Nino pulls a 2012, Ill be a little more conservative. Even some El Nino EPAC year struggle somewhat to get storms (though they are often stronger), such as 2002 and 2004.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Quality over quantity is always better here! Much like 2011, although that wasn't an El Niño. 11 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes occurred that year. That was amazing.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest update has Niño down to 0.0, purely neutral. However, they are saying that the chances of an El Niño are increasing. My updated numbers for the season are as follows:

16-19 named storms
8-11 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes

I will give another update on my numbers in January, and one each month thereafter, until June.

THIS POST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH! IT IS JUST MY AMATEUR OPINION AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE ACCURATE!

[cycloneye]

My 2014 EPAC numbers:

19/10/5

IMO,the EPAC will be more active because ENSO will be in a favorable status for plenty of activity to take place.