2014 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

GFS has a quiet spell coming up with nothing in sights after Simon. In this case, I agree.

For next week I'd agree as well, but towards the end of the period big Kelvin wave currently crossing WPAC will make it's way into the EPAC

Around October 9 it appears. MJO will soon follow.

Im getting more impressed with that potential MJO/kw crossing. Looks like another 2+ sigma which if verified will likely spark another large, intense system. Its already helped to spawn two strong systems in the WPAC same KW

[Yellow Evan]

Im getting more impressed with that potential MJO/kw crossing. Looks like another 2+ sigma which if verified will likely spark another large, intense system. Its already helped to spawn two strong systems in the WPAC same KW

I think it could spark a major or two. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS WCARB storms shifts to the EPAC later on.

[Ntxw]

And with that Simon becomes 9th major (8th if takeout cpac). It also helps 2014 surpass 1997's ACE putting this year into the top 10. 1991 and 1994 are next which with the coming KW it will likely pass those two as well before it is over.

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form later this week a few hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Central America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form later this week a few hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Central America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form later this week a few hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Central America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America to the far
eastern Pacific during the next few days. Some gradual development
of this system is possible southwest of the coast of Central
America later this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to move slowly westward across Central America and over the
far eastern Pacific during the next couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is possible south or southwest of the
coast of Central America late this week or this weekend while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Complex scenario developing. MU switched this from ATL to EPAC a run ago, but NHC has bite on the SWCARB situation.

This is being discussed at another thread more in depth.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure that is moving inland over Nicaragua
and Costa Rica is expected to move slowly westward into the far
eastern Pacific over the next couple of days. Gradual development
of this system is possible south or southwest of the coast of
Central America late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Model Uccelleni 6z run has a microcane hitting central America. Then shows Vance and Winnie in the long range.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF shows an intensifying Hurricane Trudy by day 10

[Kingarabian]

What a season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Gradual development of this system is possible late this week or
this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[TheStormExpert]

The East Pacific has basically been the Hurricane Factory this season (besides the typically active W. Pacific). It's been producing storms left and right with very little breaks!

[CrazyC83]

If the MJO can produce well, the EPAC may still go Greek.

[jaguarjace]

I hope this season squeezes past 1992 Zeke.

[Yellow Evan]

We've never got more than 5 more storms after this date which believe it or not, was set by 2013.

I'm thinking 2 or 3 more storms max.