2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

GFS brings it to the CPHC in a past run. Showed a Narda 83-like system. Now, they have dropped it and show much stronger shear.

[hurricanes1234]

Something has the EPAC a bit dormant right now.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A low pressure area could form well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. Some
gradual development of this system is possible next week while it
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Something has the EPAC a bit dormant right now.

MJO has been somewhat dormant lately. Did not have much effect on the EPAC. The early May MJO pulse was much stronger.

[stormcruisin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/vis-animated.gif

Interesting little area there down in the doldrums.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave with scattered showers and thunderstorms is located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula of Mexico. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while
it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low are disorganized,
and any development should be slow to occur during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060513
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low remain
disorganized, and any development should be slow to occur during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

I checked yesterday and GFS showed nothing for quite some time again. It could be weeks before we see Fausto.

Not official.

[Yellow Evan]

I checked yesterday and GFS showed nothing for quite some time again. It could be weeks before we see Fausto.

Not official.

It does close it off, so it kinda hints at it.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061137
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low remain minimal,
and any development should be slow to occur during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

Don't see much at all coming from this. Looks that the East Pacific has hit a somewhat quiet period for now, with Douglas and Elida recently forming and struggling to become more than weak TS's I think a lull is happening or expected to happen for a little bit.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Don't see much at all coming from this. Looks that the East Pacific has hit a somewhat quiet period for now, with Douglas and Elida recently forming and struggling to become more than weak TS's I think a lull is happening or expected to happen for a little bit.

El Nino years tend to have a big lull in activity at some point.

Wind shear is very high right now, much higher than they were a few days ago.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO likely in the WPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

10/20 is the previous disturbance.

[cycloneye]

We have up INVEST 98E.

[Yellow Evan]

A small low pressure area located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Is now Fausto.

Looks like after Fausto things will get quiet assuming 98E does not form.

[hurricanes1234]

Fausto was a pathetic storm which defied initial forecasts and peaked at 40 knots.

Now that Fausto is done and Invest 98E will have to face shear in a couple of days, in my opinion it would not surprise me if we enter a lull of activity. However, that's just my amateur opinion (see below).

[Yellow Evan]

Fausto was a pathetic storm which defied initial forecasts and peaked at 40 knots.

Now that Fausto is done and Invest 98E will have to face shear in a couple of days, in my opinion it would not surprise me if we enter a lull of activity. However, that's just my amateur opinion (see below).

For a little while, yes. When MJO comes back, it should pick back up IMO.