2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

What I see with this setup in regards to those two invests, is a reminisce of Felicia and Enrique in 2009. Of course these two systems are further East.

Of course one of these systems are going to have to give to the other. I see one storm becoming dominant and the other mediocre. Doubt they collectively become strong together.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

Good comparison, though they are a bunch I could name like those. I agree one will be weak and the other will be strong. I'm leaning towards 96E dominating.

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends
several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends
several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS doesn't show this anymore but does show Elida by around day 12.

[srainhoutx]

GFS doesn't show this anymore but does show Elida by around day 12.

Actually the current outlined area ESE of 96E does develop and is very compact and may pose more of a threat for rapid development as 96E drifts out to sea and never really develops.

[Yellow Evan]

It's back on the 12z run



Elida near Baja

[cycloneye]

Interesting. I thought now 96E was going to be the strongest but it appears it will be the one behind.

[Yellow Evan]

0z Euro makes Elida strong.

[cycloneye]

A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Should be invest'd soon at this rate.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF shows both Douglas and Elida as hurricanes, with Elida in the GOC.

[Yellow Evan]

The AOI has been invest'd as 97E. Take all posts to that thread now

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows Fausto in like 8 days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The HWRF has forecasted storms and their intensities fairly well, and better than any other of the global models. It would also be something amazing to see 2 hurricanes intensifying at the same time, then another one pops up!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS run is very, very conservative. Strongest of the bunch is barely a weak tropical storm.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS much less aggressive the past few runs in the long range now.

[euro6208]

Just to be clear, when is the first peak and second peak for this basin?

[hurricanes1234]

Just to be clear, when is the first peak and second peak for this basin?

The first peak is in July.
The second, I believe, is in late August.

Basically, the EPAC usually sees its climax in the summer months.

[Yellow Evan]

Just to be clear, when is the first peak and second peak for this basin?

First: Second week of July
Second: Late August

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC makes Elida and Fausto fairly deep. I can't tell which is which though. Also kinda suggests at a third system.