2014 EPAC Season

[tolakram]

Family Photo

[Yellow Evan]

Someone posted this in the WPAC thread, so ill post it here as well

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last year's EPAC thread had 17 pages only; THIS year has already 49 pages and it is still the peak of the season! AMAZING

[mrbagyo]

SSEC Real Earth

[Yellow Evan]

GFS off and on about showing stuff long-range.

[HurricaneRyan]

The EPAC has been amazing this season. Which is why we have gotten to 49 pages. It's actually the best EPAC season we've gotten in over a decade.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has been amazing this season. Which is why we have gotten to 49 pages. It's actually the best EPAC season we've gotten in over a decade.

Since 1997 or 1992 probs. Best season I've tracked so far.

[HurricaneRyan]

Btw Andrew92 said Marie would be a big one. In terms of intensity, he was right!

[Yellow Evan]

Btw Andrew92 said Marie would be a big one. In terms of intensity, he was right!

I think we all knew it. Models were blowing it up weeks in advance.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Even,is there anything new that may form in the next two weeks?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Even,is there anything new that may form in the next two weeks?

Nothing major yet. GFS for a while is trying to close stuff off. It'll depend on the ATL like it always does in September. Area with lowest shear interestingly enough is off the west coast of Baja. We still have a 30-32C warm pool that Marie tapped the western part of.

[somethingfunny]

Is Marie likely to upwell that region?

[Ntxw]

Marie becomes Category 5, first since Celia and strongest since Rick in the Whem (info check?) Just fitting for a season like this.

[Yellow Evan]

Marie becomes Category 5, first since Celia and strongest since Rick in the Whem (info check?) Just fitting for a season like this.

Yes. Strongest since Rick 09 in WHEM. The season has had everything.

[Yellow Evan]

Is Marie likely to upwell that region?

Yes, but these waters generally recover and should in time for the second half of September.

[Ntxw]

SST's isn't going to be a problem this year in the EPAC running well above normal. Even after upwelling it will recover quickly like Yellow Evan mentioned. Just need the seeds to spawn, lets see what can survive the west track from Atlantic. Waters along the western Mexican coast is ripe. We certainly don't wish a Kenna type scenario but potential can be had, especially later into Sept and Oct. No reason to believe it won't.

[somethingfunny]

SST's isn't going to be a problem this year in the EPAC running well above normal. Even after upwelling it will recover quickly like Yellow Evan mentioned. Just need the seeds to spawn, lets see what can survive the west track from Atlantic. Waters along the western Mexican coast is ripe. We certainly don't wish a Kenna type scenario but potential can be had, especially later into Sept and Oct. No reason to believe it won't.

Even if there is a quiet period following Marie (far from certain) I would actually be surprised if Marie ends up being the only Category 5 in the EPAC this year.

[Ntxw]

Even if there is a quiet period following Marie (far from certain) I would actually be surprised if Marie ends up being the only Category 5 in the EPAC this year.

EPAC is still benefiting from strong CCKW that will last about another week. Then the suppressed phase will arrive from the WPAC and probably nudge things down though it's forecasted to be most unfavorable over in the Atlantic than EPAC. So rogue development in the EPAC can't be ruled out. I would be surprised if Marie was the only as well, though one wouldn't say another is expected. Greater than normal chance of more majors and cat 4's probably a sure bet.

[Yellow Evan]

SST's isn't going to be a problem this year in the EPAC running well above normal. Even after upwelling it will recover quickly like Yellow Evan mentioned. Just need the seeds to spawn, lets see what can survive the west track from Atlantic. Waters along the western Mexican coast is ripe. We certainly don't wish a Kenna type scenario but potential can be had, especially later into Sept and Oct. No reason to believe it won't.

Agreed something like Kenna/59 MX is possible as we get towards the later half of the season. SST's look like the Philippines prior to Haiyan out there. Marie just tapped the W end of it.

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[Yellow Evan]

Here's a graph that someone posted on another forum

Warmest EPAC SST's on record since 1959.