2014 EPAC Season

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galaxy401
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#1201 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:29 pm

Won't be surprised if this disturbance also becomes a hurricane. Located in that prime region.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1202 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:44 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue in association with a
broad area of low pressure located south of the coast of El
Salvador. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it drifts west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1203 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:30 am

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#1204 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:06 pm

Regarding the system near El Salvador, rare example of the GFS and ECMWF both showing development in the medium-range guidance (a few days ago) but both models not verifying. With this EPAC system not likely happening, will it open the door for a SW Carib / W Carib system in the next 10 days? Looking out at the EPAC this afternoon, it looks as dead as a doornail besides one invest way out there. When the EPAC is slow, it sometimes means the Atlantic picks up as we are already seeing, just nothing in the Caribbean (yet).
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Re:

#1205 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:Regarding the system near El Salvador, rare example of the GFS and ECMWF both showing development in the medium-range guidance (a few days ago) but both models not verifying. With this EPAC system not likely happening, will it open the door for a SW Carib / W Carib system in the next 10 days? Looking out at the EPAC this afternoon, it looks as dead as a doornail besides one invest way out there. When the EPAC is slow, it sometimes means the Atlantic picks up as we are already seeing, just nothing in the Caribbean (yet).


It's going to develop at some point. I have no clue why NHC has this at 0/10 to be honest with you. All models (sans 12z GFS, but they tend to be off and on for systems near land and the ever conservative JMA) develop this to some extent
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#1206 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:25 pm

To all doubters, the ECMWF develops this into a powerful hurricane by day 10

Image
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Re: Re:

#1207 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:38 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Regarding the system near El Salvador, rare example of the GFS and ECMWF both showing development in the medium-range guidance (a few days ago) but both models not verifying. With this EPAC system not likely happening, will it open the door for a SW Carib / W Carib system in the next 10 days? Looking out at the EPAC this afternoon, it looks as dead as a doornail besides one invest way out there. When the EPAC is slow, it sometimes means the Atlantic picks up as we are already seeing, just nothing in the Caribbean (yet).


It's going to develop at some point. I have no clue why NHC has this at 0/10 to be honest with you. All models (sans 12z GFS, but they tend to be off and on for systems near land and the ever conservative JMA) develop this to some extent


I am looking at the RAMMB loops and I see nothing of interest down there. I do see why the NHC is only giving it 10% at this point. I did see the ECMWF which is interesting. Development keeps getting pushed out though.
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Re: Re:

#1208 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:48 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Regarding the system near El Salvador, rare example of the GFS and ECMWF both showing development in the medium-range guidance (a few days ago) but both models not verifying. With this EPAC system not likely happening, will it open the door for a SW Carib / W Carib system in the next 10 days? Looking out at the EPAC this afternoon, it looks as dead as a doornail besides one invest way out there. When the EPAC is slow, it sometimes means the Atlantic picks up as we are already seeing, just nothing in the Caribbean (yet).


It's going to develop at some point. I have no clue why NHC has this at 0/10 to be honest with you. All models (sans 12z GFS, but they tend to be off and on for systems near land and the ever conservative JMA) develop this to some extent


I am looking at the RAMMB loops and I see nothing of interest down there. I do see why the NHC is only giving it 10% at this point. I did see the ECMWF which is interesting. Development keeps getting pushed out though.


It's not moving anywhere. It's gonna have to do something eventually. We have MJO help and CCKW support.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1209 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:52 am

EPAC/CPAC, but GFS predicting something closing in on Hawaii but missing it north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Image
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1210 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:04 am

tolakram wrote:EPAC/CPAC, but GFS predicting something closing in on Hawaii but missing it north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Image


That's from 95C, FWIW.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1211 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:37 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
That's from 95C, FWIW.



Woops, copied over there, thanks. :)
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#1212 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:12 pm

Knew it would come back.

Cloudiness and a few showers are associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 150 miles south of the coast of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while the
low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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#1213 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:14 pm

Image

Dual threat
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Re:

#1214 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:40 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Image

Dual threat


How is it showing 992 for Ana?

All I can find is 1001 at the lowest.
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Re: Re:

#1215 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:08 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Image

Dual threat


How is it showing 992 for Ana?

All I can find is 1001 at the lowest.


From the surface pressure& 10 m wind speed tab on Levi's site http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/
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#1216 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:10 am

1. Cloudiness and showers remain limited in association with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while the low moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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#1217 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:17 am

Models are showing crossover into the BOC for this system :uarrow:
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1218 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:23 am

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#1219 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:59 am

How are things looking for the EPAC in the near future?
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Re:

#1220 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:04 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:How are things looking for the EPAC in the near future?


Pretty good. GFS develops formidable hurricane in the long-range. Too buys showing phantom stuff in the WCARB, which odds are decent it will get switched to the EPAc much like Trudy.
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