Tropical Wave in EPAC (Is Invest 96E)

[hurricanes1234]

New tropical wave in EPAC. This one seems to have relatively good model support.


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[supercane4867]

The Area of interest mentioned


12Z ECMWF develops this system and another one after

[hurricanes1234]

We might reach further than the 'R' storm after all! This will be the first time since 2006 if that happens.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR CENTRAL
AMERICA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC
SOUTH OF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane4867]

lol

[cycloneye]

Is invest 96E. Go to the Invest 96E thread to continue with the comments about this area of interest.