2014 hurricane season forecasts

[Hurricaneman]

I want to see what every one here forecasts whether amateur or pro in this thread

My 2014 hurricane season forecast

ENSO

The ENSO is forecast to be in the +neutral to weak El Nino range which when there is an El Nino in most cases will exhibit some higher vertical shear and might inhibit development some unless it is a El Nino madoki in which those seasons tend to favor a slow start and quick end but tend to cause a major issues during peak season. As I look at it now it looks like a El Nino Madoki may be in its formative stages and may cause the 2014 season to not be inhibited much as far as storms

QBO

Looks as if the QBO is going into a +state in which could be an inhibitant and while I don't know much about the QBO it could lead to less upper moisture too

PDO

The current PDO is negative and forecast to be negative so IMO that could open up some landfall chances especially near the east coast but looking at the current configuration of the PDO it could lead to mostly fish storms unless it becomes a larger area where the ridge can build in the Gulf of Alaska bringing the potential east coast trough to near 85W which would definitely lead to some landfalls but as of this moment I say the PDO isn't going to change too much and will lead to very few landfalls if any

Indian ocean

the Indian ocean is important when it comes to creating tropical waves to transverse Africa and end up in the Atlantic and the -anomalies seemed to cause the wave train to be a little wimpy in 2013 but as I see it as we come up on summer 2014 the current +anomalies will fade but come back for summer and we will have a much better wave train in 2014

South America

The drought in South America seems to be getting some relief in some areas and the Drought IMO is part of what caused the 2013 hurricane season to be a bust but the other part will be shown later. The idea is that a little drought relief will lead to more moisture in the MDR and possibly more storms to survive farther west in the MDR

SAL

One of the principle reasons that the 2013 season was a bust was that There was a big SAL outbreak in June and a very huge outbreak in early August that squelched the moisture out of the MDR but in 2014 I do expect that while there will so smaller SAL outbreaks I do predict that SAL will be less intrusive and may allow for more development in the MDR farther west

Vertical Instability

The last 3 years have had below normal instability and while I do expect 2014 to have some higher instability it may only be normal to slightly below normal which may be a slight negative but not too intrusive

NAO\AO

The NAO\AO was positive for the 2013 hurricane season which sent most things west into Mexico even though weak, but in 2014 I do expect +Anomalies the +NAO\AO will be less positive and may allow for very few landfalls

the negatives outlined in my forecast

El Nino
Vertical Instability
QBO

the positives as forecast

Indian Ocean Anomalies
South America
SAL

My number for the 2014 season are as follows

14\7\3 landfalls unknown at this time

My forecast could be prone to egregious errors as any forecast 7 months out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

For some reason, I can see the 2014 EPAC Season being like 2012. I think it's due to the El Niño and warm-neutral talk I've occasionally been seeing in the ENSO-Updates thread. But I do think that next year's Pacific hurricane season will have more major hurricanes than this year (perhaps 3-5)? As for the Atlantic, I won't say anything yet, because you know what happened this year.

THE ABOVE WAS JUST MY AMATEUR OPINION AND NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION! PLEASE DO NOT UTILISE IT AS SUCH!!!

[ninel conde]

too early to say. lets see how the winter pattern shapes up first. if we have a slow severe season in spring again it might mean a similar cane season to this year.

[galaxy401]

I feel that there is going to be an El Nino next season. If that's the case, then the Atlantic will be quiet and the Pacific will be active.

[hurricanes1234]

I feel that there is going to be an El Nino next season. If that's the case, then the Atlantic will be quiet and the Pacific will be active.

Which might mean stronger EPAC fish storms that move harmlessly out to sea, but are very interesting to watch! I do not like storms when they bother land. An example of a nice fish was Emilia from 2012.

[Hurricane_Luis]

In my opinion next year could either take 3 options:

> We see a very active season, to make up for lost storms from this year.

> The 2014 season stays dead with few storms.

> The upcoming Southern Hemisphere season could be very active, leaving the 2014 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific dead and buried.

Really it is to early to tell, but I would go with the first one.

**Insert disclaimer**

[dexterlabio]

If ever El Nino shows up next year, we'll never know if the season will act like 2004.

[CrazyC83]

I agree with the three scenarios. BTW, I doubt that both the Atlantic and EPAC will be dead and buried, but I am leaning towards back-to-back slow years in the Atlantic for the first time since 1993-94.

I'm thinking it will be a significant to strong El Nino, especially in the spring and summer. Hence, I see 2014 being similar to 2013, perhaps a BIT more quality. Still a well below normal season. A strong El Nino would trend towards a 1983 or 1997 type season. I don't see the dry air and stability situations improving enough to counter the El Nino negative (they would be neutral at best, more likely still somewhat negative even if not as bad as in 2013).

Does that mean the active period is over? Probably not. Active periods are overrated, as there were likely more storms each year undetected before satellites, and the 1960s to 1980s have not been reanalyzed.

My current predictions:

2014 Atlantic - 9/3/1

2014 EPAC - 24/13/5

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

too early to say. lets see how the winter pattern shapes up first. if we have a slow severe season in spring again it might mean a similar cane season to this year.

That doesn't mean too much. The spring of 2005 was an absolute dud for severe weather, and look what happened.

[Ptarmigan]

If ever El Nino shows up next year, we'll never know if the season will act like 2004.

That is what I am thinking too if El Nino was to show up in 2014.

[Hurricaneman]

Hurricane Forecast 2 February 27 2014

As we get closer to the 2014 hurricane season here are the factors and how I think they will effect the season

ENSO: With the current subsurface anomolies and new Kelvin wave moving through the Pacific it seem as though the current negative surface anomolies will be a thing of the past come the hurricane season which will add wind shear to the Atlantic but there may be a bit of cooler water near the coast of SA which would maket this more of a Madoki El Nino if it remains stubborn and could put a fly in the ointment in my forecast

Vertical instability: seems as though areas west of 55w will have higher than normal instability but may be lower than normal east of there so I do think that could spell trouble for anything that gets close to land so I will be watching this like a hawk but not much in the MDR

ITCZ: Seems as though at the moment its actually pretty robust for this time of year especially over Africa but we have to see if it remains that way until it starts moving north and durring the peak of the hurricane season

Bermuda\Azores High: seems to be pretty far north for this time of year and east so this one I can't tell yet of what the position or orientation of it will be


Analog Years not in any order and their US landfalls since 1990

2009: Ida hits the Mouth of the Mississippi River on November 10th as a 50mph transitionaing tropical storm to nor'easter


2006: Alberto Landfalls as a 45mph TS in Adams Beach FL on June 14th

Beryl landfalls in Nantucket as a 40mph tropical storm on July 21st

Ernesto landfalls as a 45mph tropical storm in Guantonimo Bay, Cuba on August 28th and Kendall Florida on August 29th and as a 70mph TS in Wilmington NC on August 31st


2004: Bonnie landfalls as a 45mph TS in Apalachicola, Florida on August 12th

Charley made landfall in Cuba as a 115mph hurricane on August 13th and Punta Gorda, FL as a 150mph hurricane on August 13th and Myrtle Beach SC as a 75mph hurricane August 14th

Frances made landfall at Port Salerno, Florida as a 105 mph hurricane September 5th

Gaston made landfall in Awendaw, South Carolina as a 75mph hurricane August 29th

Hermine mad landfall as a 40mph TS in New Bedford, MA August 31st

Ivan made landfall in Pensacola, FL as a 120mph hurricane September 16th looped back around and made landfall in Holly Beach, LA as a 35mph TD on September 24th

Jeanne made landfall in Puerto Rico as a 65mph TS on September 15th and a few hrs later in Hispaniola as a 75mph hurricane and later Stuart, FL as a 120mph hurricane on September 25th

Matthew made landfall in Cocodrie, LA as a 40mph TS on October 10th


2002: Bertha made landfall in Boothville, LA as a 40mph TS on August 5th and Kingsville TX as a 40mph TS on August 9th

Edouard made landfall as a 40mph TS at Ormond Beach, FL on September 5th

Fay made landfall in Matagorda, TX as a 60mph TS on September 6th

Hanna made landfall as a 55mph TS on the mouth of the Mississippi River on September 15th

Isidore made landfall on Grand Isle, LA as a 65mph TS on September 26th

Lili made landfall as a 90mph hurricane in Intracoastal City, LA on October 3rd

1997: Danny made landfall as a 80mph hurricane in Buras, LA on July 19th

1994: Alberto made landfall near Destin, FL as a 65mph TS on July 3rd

Beryl made landfall in Panama City, Fl as a 60mph TS on August 16th

Gordon made landfall as a 40mph TS in Cuba November 13th and made 2 landfalls in Florida as a 50mph TS on November 15th

Heres a storm I'm going to add based on reports the 1994 christmas eve Nor'easter aka TS Santa which made landfall as a 70mph TS on Montauk, NY December 24th

1993: Arlene made landfall in Padre Island, TX as a 40mph TS on June 20th

1992: Andrew made landfall in Homestead FL as a 165mph Hurricane on August 24th and Morgan City, LA as a 115mph hurricane on August 26th

Danielle made landfall as a 65mph TS in Maryland on September 26th

1991: Bob Made landfall as a 105mph hurricane in Buzzards Bay, MA on August 19th

out of these 9 El Nino analogs 2002 was a mix of El Nino Madoki the first half of hurricane season and Traditional El Nino by September and 2004 was an El Nino Madoki so I added those in case the cold pool is stubborn so based on that the landfall storms are as follows

The numbers for these El Nino year landfalls
27 Named Storms
11 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

so in Summary I would say the hurricane season may be stiffled a little by El Nino so I'm going with a 12\5\2 season and do believe there is a hightened risk for landfall due to where the Instability will probably be and possibly where the Bermuda high sets up but with the +PDO it may end up being North Carolina, SE Coast, Florida and the eastern Gulf with the highest risk and maybe some risk to the Western Gulf, Mid Atlantic and Northeastern US and low risk for Central America but if it shows more of a Madoki the risk could shift more towards Florida and maybe the gulf

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have a list of the seasons featuring a Modoki El Niño? I know 2004 was one of them since I went through both Hurricanes Frances & Jeanne living in S. Florida.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone have a list of the seasons featuring a Modoki El Niño? I know 2004 was one of them since I went through both Hurricanes Frances & Jeanne living in S. Florida.

Years that are considered CP El Nino or "Modoki". So statistically Modoki El Ninos outnumber traditional El Nino. 2004 gave the "modoki" a rap because of it's active season but more in depth research needs to be put before we automatically assume modoki is beneficial because there are dead modoki years as well for the Atlantic. 2004, 2005 was more the peak +AMO/+PDO effect rather than the type of El nino that occured IMO. Overall Modoki Nino's tend to be weaker than traditional EP Nino's therefore their effects overall would be less on the Atlantic compared to their counterparts.

Pre satellite so can be debatable
1957-1958
1963-1964
1965-1966
1968-1969
1977-1978

Post satellite
1986-1987
1991-1992
1994-1995
2002-2003

Et Al Ashok (2007) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf

Not listed in the 2007 paper but widely accepted as a Modoki was 2009-2010 El Nino

[dexterlabio]

^2009 is considered "Modoki", isn't it?

[Kingarabian]

^2009 is considered "Modoki", isn't it?

I thought 2009 was a traditional El-Nino?

[Ntxw]

^2009 is considered "Modoki", isn't it?

I thought 2009 was a traditional El-Nino?

It was in most part Modoki, especially during it's peak. Warmest anomalies were in Nino 3.4 and 4 rather that 1+2 thus central Pacific rather than eastern Pacific. However it is debatable, some Nino's behave differently at different stages so it could have been a hybrid.

[Kingarabian]

^2009 is considered "Modoki", isn't it?

I thought 2009 was a traditional El-Nino?

It was in most part Modoki, especially during it's peak. Warmest anomalies were in Nino 3.4 and 4 rather that 1+2 thus central Pacific rather than eastern Pacific. However it is debatable, some Nino's behave differently at different stages so it could have been a hybrid.

Aha I see. Do you know when its peak was?

[Ntxw]

Aha I see. Do you know when its peak was?

It had two peaks, one in Oct/Nov 2009 and one in Jan/Feb 2010.

One way to look at the difference on a map is where the bright reds are. If during it's peak (or near) the hottest anomalies is in that area where SA (Peru) and Panama is then it's EP or no modoki. If it's in the central Pac south of Hawaii then it's CP or modoki and there's cooler waters coming up from Chile and Peru.

[Ptarmigan]

^2009 is considered "Modoki", isn't it?

2009-2010 was a Modoki El Nino. Same goes with 2004-2005.

[cycloneye]

My early preliminary forecast for the 2014 North Atlantic season is 12/6/2. Of course I will have the final forecast at the S2k poll. More threats to land is what I see as homegrown systems will form more than the long CV trackers.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.