2014 hurricane season forecasts

[Ntxw]

Where did you find these graphics?

NCEP's reanalysis page. Lots of data, just plug in what you want.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

[TheStormExpert]

Where did you find these graphics?

NCEP's reanalysis page. Lots of data, just plug in what you want.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

Thanks!

[hurricanes1234]

For the Atlantic, I think we might see something like 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes. I just can't see it being any more active than this with the >50 knots of shear I've been reading about, howling over most of the basin. Also, ocean temperatures are not that warm.

Just my amateur opinion (see below).

[NDG]

You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CFLHurricane]

You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.

Yep last year was probably a once in a generation event. I just can't wait for this season to finally kick off!

[Cyclenall]

You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.

We focus on the deep tropics because the subtropics are not interesting to most of us, I really actually get bored when those pop up. I don't agree that the conditions in the subtropics will be better than last year, and part of that is I think the dry air will crush development from a non-tropical source, and TW's will not be able to survive if they want to form in the sub-tropics. I also wouldn't use the phrase "good conditions" for the 2014 season anywhere .

Yep last year was probably a once in a generation event. I just can't wait for this season to finally kick off!

It was an OIAG event up til last year, but this Atlantic season will make it two. 95% of us think your going to be in for a huge disappointment if you "can't wait". You picked a really bad year to be eager! I post this a lot, but I can't stress enough how sucky this is going to turn out due to the current conditions, and forecast modeling. I have a hunch that when/if it does kick off, there won't be much to see like last year (and last year had some things going for it, this time none). Think of 1983 without the Alicia.

[Steve820]

Oh my gosh, this year could be very inactive. I wouldn't be surprised if it's more inactive than 2013. I'm actually starting to agree with Cyclenall, in that this year might be extremely pathetic! Come on, do I really have to pull out my super extreme wind shear & dry air sucker machine and place it over the Atlantic?!

Hopefully the 2015/2016 seasons will be much more active and not a very pathetic year like 2013/2014!

[SFLcane]

Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/

[NDG]

You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.

We focus on the deep tropics because the subtropics are not interesting to most of us, I really actually get bored when those pop up. I don't agree that the conditions in the subtropics will be better than last year, and part of that is I think the dry air will crush development from a non-tropical source, and TW's will not be able to survive if they want to form in the sub-tropics. I also wouldn't use the phrase "good conditions" for the 2014 season anywhere .

Yep last year was probably a once in a generation event. I just can't wait for this season to finally kick off!

It was an OIAG event up til last year, but this Atlantic season will make it two. 95% of us think your going to be in for a huge disappointment if you "can't wait". You picked a really bad year to be eager! I post this a lot, but I can't stress enough how sucky this is going to turn out due to the current conditions, and forecast modeling. I have a hunch that when/if it does kick off, there won't be much to see like last year (and last year had some things going for it, this time none). Think of 1983 without the Alicia.

Data proves me right that current conditions in the subtropics are better than last year, is all I have to say.

[Yellow Evan]

Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/

Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.

Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.

[SFLcane]

Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/

Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.

Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.

All basin is hostile in june. Nothing to look at out there in MDR till mid aug regardless. As NDG has suggested keep an eye for development close to home tw's that struggle to develope.

[Yellow Evan]

Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/

Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.

Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.

All basin is hostile in june. Nothing to look at out there in MDR till mid aug regardless. As NDG has suggested keep an eye for development close to home tw's that struggle to develope.

That's typical of El Ninos.

[TheStormExpert]

Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/

Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.

Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.

All basin is hostile in june. Nothing to look at out there in MDR till mid aug regardless. As NDG has suggested keep an eye for development close to home tw's that struggle to develope.

Of course it is normal to see hostile conditions in June, but 60-70kts of shear across all of the main development regions (GoM, Caribbean, Tropical Atlantic) is definitely not normal for June standards. August may not be much better in fact, I feel this is a precursor to what will be a VERY QUIET season.

[Kingarabian]

I read somewhere, and I'm not eluding El-Nino or no El-Nino, but the rule of thumb is whenever the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually dead.

Models show the Eastern Pacific very active for the month of July, so....

Only exception was 2005... which was a weird season in general.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Ntxw]

It is not just about ENSO. Last year, not brought up by many, I have little doubt many thought the season would be very active because the first thing that comes to mind when they heard "neutral year" early they assumed it would be without looking at all bases. I'm not saying it was predictable but the point is when you're pointing at El Nino or not it is one influence you consider into the whole picture not all of it.

Currently conditions are not good for MDR and Carib/Gulf. Ok it's early, so lets see if the broad scale factors like shear and lack of instability abate. Once it improves, if it does, it takes a few weeks for things to recover. The longer we delay that, the deeper into the season we get. The subtropics environment wise are pretty good, question will be can we seed it with systems to take advantage of it. Some years we do (like crazy 2004 when they come up from a fairly unfavorable region to higher latitudes and blossom), and some years they don't make it into the subtropics in large numbers.

[TheStormExpert]

It is not just about ENSO. Last year, not brought up by many, I have little doubt many thought the season would be very active because the first thing that comes to mind when they heard "neutral year" early they assumed it would be without looking at all bases. I'm not saying it was predictable but the point is when you're pointing at El Nino or not it is one influence you consider into the whole picture not all of it.

Currently conditions are not good for MDR and Carib/Gulf. Ok it's early, so lets see if the broad scale factors like shear and lack of instability abate. Once it improves, if it does, it takes a few weeks for things to recover. The longer we delay that, the deeper into the season we get. The subtropics environment wise are pretty good, question will be can we seed it with systems to take advantage of it. Some years we do (like crazy 2004 when they come up from a fairly unfavorable region to higher latitudes and blossom), and some years they don't make it into the subtropics in large numbers.

In 2004 the Tropical Atlantic was Very Favorable, with several hurricanes traversing it throughout the season.

[Yellow Evan]

I read somewhere, and I'm not eluding El-Nino or no El-Nino, but the rule of thumb is whenever the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually dead.

Models show the Eastern Pacific very active for the month of July, so....

Only exception was 2005... which was a weird season in general.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

2012? 1990? Both were fairly active in both basins.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at this season, I think a major could happen close to land and honestly 1994 and 1991 are my closest analogs as I think that the subtropics will be active with a strong emphasis on the eastern seaboard and with the current system near the SEUS could be more like 1991 being the higher analog while it was a season with few storm with 8\4\2 with a big impact to SE Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Also the SSTs look to be quite similar to 1991 as far as I can remember but it seems the NEUS seems to have higher SSTAs than 1991 which is a worry IMO and another worrying thing is that the instability in the Subtropics is higher than normal which can lead to stronger systems

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gigabite]

This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.

[Yellow Evan]

This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.

That's the East Pacific not the Atlantic FYI. There's an EPAC seasonal thread