2014 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing monster Nuri for six consecutive runs. This may mean that this has a good chance to pan out.

[euro6208]

GFS 12Z brings Nuri down to 955 mb...Wake Island likely in the path...

EURO now latching onto this area, develops a strong typhoon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No development from GFS

[euro6208]

No development in latest EURO and GFS runs as the suppressed dry phrase of MJO and lack of Kelvin wave is over the area...

[euro6208]

Even the overly excited CMC doesn't develop anything...

Models do bring the MJO back first/second week of November, around the time 170 knots Haiyan developed last year...

[dexterlabio]

If I remember it right, the wet-phase MJO was already over the Western Hemisphere the time Haiyan formed in the open Western Pacific... But I don't think there was a wide area of sinking area that time like now..

[euro6208]

The Marianas in the bull's eye yet again...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For 4 straight years there has been a category 5 landfalling in the Philippines, so it is likely that that would happen again this year; they are Megi, Nanmadol, Bopha and Haiyan. But, the question is when?

[euro6208]

Interesting that last year at this time we were tracking Cat 5 Francisco and later another Cat 5 in Lekima, 4th and 5th straight Major typhoon out of a total of 7 in an incredible outbreak...

Of course 170 knots Haiyan is the 7th and developed first week of November...

It would be scary if we get another repeat since the ocean is recharging up for the next storms...

[euro6208]

Unfavorable but based on models, kelvin wave likely in last week of october followed by a weak/moderate MJO in second week of november up to december and another kelvin wave after...could see a few storms out from this...

[euro6208]

Super long range but 00Z GFS shows a developing 1005 mb low just south of Guam...Same timeframe as Haiyan last year...

CMC much different, has a stalled TS east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

06Z

[euro6208]

00Z EURO develops a strong LPA in the Philippine Sea

06Z GFS stronger with tropical storm nuri

12Z JMA also shows a strong LPA in the same vicinity

00Z CMC much more bullish, 963 mb Nuri also develops Sinlaku in the South China Sea...

[euro6208]

GFS appears to suffer from convective feedback issues next week as it develops some circulations near the Marianas while EURO seems aggressive in developing something south of Guam within the monsoon trough. Both develop a circulation east of the forecast domain in on days 9 and 10...

[euro6208]

Nearing the 1 year anniversary of 8.0, 170 knots Super Typhoon Haiyan, 12Z GFS showing a possible hit for the Philippines but much further north after passing north of guam...

[euro6208]

Another twin typhoons just like Phanfone and Vongfong

[euro6208]

12Z sinlaku approaching the philippines with a track similiar to Cat 5 Megi (2010) and the marianas under the gun yet again from nuri...Both forecast to develop at the same time and earlier compared to earlier runs at 228 hours...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting more exciting but scarier. Farther south and even stronger.. Haiyan part 2?

[dexterlabio]

^why exciting?

00z GFS pretty much the same track but as a tropical storm...one thing for sure is that it's all in an extended timeframe which may or may not exactly come into fruition...

[euro6208]

NOTE: BEGINNING 3 NOVEMBER 2014, JTWC WILL BE ENCODING AND
TRANSMITTING ALL FIXES TO THE NEAREST HUNDREDTH DECIMAL PLACE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT JTWC AT SATOPS.JTWC
(AT)NAVY.MIL.

interesting...