2014 WPAC Season
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
GFS Parellel
GEM
NAVGEM
GEM
NAVGEM
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
GFS still consistent in developing 2 tropical cyclones last week of December even GEM shows both but further west and NAVGEM still showing cyclogenesis around 165 E at a very low latitude...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
No wonder why models are aggressive in developing something...Kelvin Wave slowly appraching but already in the far western part of the western pacific
Not far behind is the MJO
Will we see the last tropical cyclone to develop this year from this combo as suggested by the models or will this spawn the first tropical cyclone for 2015 in January?
Not far behind is the MJO
Will we see the last tropical cyclone to develop this year from this combo as suggested by the models or will this spawn the first tropical cyclone for 2015 in January?
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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GFS showing a near repeat of Tropical Storm Sonamu of 2013. Forms as a disturbance late 2014, then traverses the southern part of Visayas or Northern Visayas as a tropical storm just right after New Year's Day. It intensifies over the South China Sea. And in fact, they have been really consistent of its formation.
The previous run, however, had twin tropical storms [possibly one other typhoon] of which the first storm follows Sonamu whereas the other storm brushes the Samar coast, intensifies, moves NW then weakens.
The previous run, however, had twin tropical storms [possibly one other typhoon] of which the first storm follows Sonamu whereas the other storm brushes the Samar coast, intensifies, moves NW then weakens.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Strong convectively enhanced kelvin wave moving through increases cyclogenesis...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:
Strong convectively enhanced kelvin wave moving through increases cyclogenesis...
Very strong Kelvin Wave and MJO...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
All the major models agreeing on development of Jangmi last week of December and impacts the Philippines on New years day and strengthening in the South China Sea...
Also models try to develop Mekkhala but differs on where...from near Guam to the Dateline...
Also models try to develop Mekkhala but differs on where...from near Guam to the Dateline...
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Oh no
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
06Z GFS showing what looks to be a weak tropical storm moving through the philippines around the 28th and reintensifies over the SCS...hits vietnam as a typhoon but then shows this...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
12Z GFS a bit stronger on the Jangmi with tacloban in the path yet again...
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- beoumont
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/
The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).
Does anyone have a more detailed record?
The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).
Does anyone have a more detailed record?
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
NWS Guam:
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EMERGE
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND AFFECT YAP AND KOROR LATE THIS WEEK.
GFS SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A DEVELOPED CIRCULATION WHILE ECMWF
DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING. INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY FOR
YAP AND KOROR AS THE DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EMERGE
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND AFFECT YAP AND KOROR LATE THIS WEEK.
GFS SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A DEVELOPED CIRCULATION WHILE ECMWF
DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING. INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY FOR
YAP AND KOROR AS THE DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
beoumont wrote:http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/
The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).
Does anyone have a more detailed record?
1993 had the most number of landfalls in the Philippines at 14. 2006 had the most intense landfalls having 3 or 4 at category 4 and above [>115 kts]; may set a world record.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
The usually conservative NAVGEM blows up a monster east of the Philippines...
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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IMO latest GFS is too weak and too far south
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Shear is favorable
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:1993 had the most number of landfalls in the Philippines at 14. 2006 had the most intense landfalls having 3 or 4 at category 4 and above [>115 kts]; may set a world record.
2006 had the most intense landfalls???
IMO, 1970 is the craziest season for the Philippines, 2 cat5, 2 cat4 and 1 cat3 .
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
2006 doesn't lag too far behind 1970 though. In fact 2006 typhoons may have been more destructive. First was Xangxane which struck the Bicol region as a Cat4 and considered to be the strongest typhoon to hit Manila since Angela in 1995. Next was Typhoon Cimaron which hit Northern Luzon as a Category 5, then 2 weeks later came Typhoon Chebi which struck Luzon as Cat4. Roughly a week after came Super typhoon Durian which affected Bicol as a very strong Cat4 and became one of the deadliest typhoons in history of the Philippines, killing around a thousand people. The last one is Typhoon Utor which struck the Boracay Beach as a Category 3.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Here it is...GFS develops this on it's way to the Philippines...The first of potential three tropical cyclones
Four out of 5 major models (GFS,ECMWF,GEM,NAVGEM) develop this too but varies on the strength and landfall from Visayas to Mindanao...
Four out of 5 major models (GFS,ECMWF,GEM,NAVGEM) develop this too but varies on the strength and landfall from Visayas to Mindanao...
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
beoumont wrote:http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/
The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).
Does anyone have a more detailed record?
I agree on the Philippines. They always get hit...Literally the whole west pacific gets hit by more tropical cyclones in the world. As for the U.S, Guam has the highest risk of being hit by a typhoon (aka hurricane) of any state or territory in the United States.
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