2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

We are just 26 days away from our year long season which starts on January 1st.

What does everyone think what this season will bring?

SEASON UPDATE:



Tropical Storm Lingling - 35 knots. ACE: 0.245

Tropical Storm Kajiki - 35 knots. ACE: 0.3675

Typhoon Faxai - 75 knots. ACE: 6.2025

Tropical Depression 04W - 30 knots

Tropical Storm PEIPAH - 35 knots. ACE: 0.8575

Typhoon Tapah - 65 knots. ACE: 3.87

Tropical Storm HAGIBIS - 45 knots. ACE: 0.9275

Super Typhoon Neoguri - 135 knots. ACE: 25.79

Super Typhoon Rammasun - 135 knots. ACE: 21.9425

Typhoon Matmo - 85 knots. ACE: 10.2025

Super Typhoon Halong - 140 knots. ACE: 27.7425

Tropical Storm Nakri - 40 knots. ACE: 0.725

Tropical Storm Fengshen - 60 knots. ACE: 3.065

Tropical Depression 14W - 25 knots

Typhoon Kalmaegi - 70 knots. ACE: 7.9775

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong - 50 knots. ACE: 3.835

Tropical Storm Kammuri - 55 knots. ACE: 4.31

Super Typhoon Phanfone - 130 knots. ACE: 23.0025

Super Typhoon Vongfong - 155 knots. ACE: 41.275

Super Typhoon Nuri - 155 knots. ACE: 26.9675

Tropical Storm Sinlaku - 55 knots

Super Typhoon Hagupit - 155 knots. ACE: 28.8775 CURRENTLY ACTIVE

NOT FINAL!

[euro6208]

I must say that i am impressed with how warm the ssts is at this time of year with SST (C) of 29 C based on buoys around Guam and the Mariana Islands...

[euro6208]

Next 25 names:

Lingling, Kajiki, Faxai, Peipah, Tapah, Mitag, Hagibis, Neoguri, Rammasun, Matmo, Halong, Nakri, Fengshen, Kalmaegi, Fung-wong, Kammuri, Phanfone, Vongfong, Nuri, Sinlaku, Hagupit, Jangmi, Mekkhala, Higos, Bavi...

[euro6208]

23 days until the season officially starts!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why did you make a thread?

[euro6208]

Why did you make a thread?

New season that starts on January 1...

About a week away (7 days)...

[euro6208]

U.S JTWC - http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC
RSMC - JMA - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
Guam - NWS - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/

National Meteorological Services:
China - CMA - http://www.typhoon.gov.cn/en/index.php
Hong Kong, China - HKO - http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm
Korea, Republic of - KMA - http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/typoon/typhoon.jsp
Macau, China - SMG - http://www.smg.gov.mo/www/cvm/typhoon/f ... onmain.htm
Philippines - PAGASA - http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php ... Itemid=376
Singapore - MSS - http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/pp/ssops/typhoon/ts.htm
Taiwan, Republic of China - CWB - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
Thailand - TMD - http://www.tmd.go.th/en/storm_tracking.php
Vietnam - NCHMF - http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/70/102/Default.aspx
Lao PDR - DMH - http://dmhlao.etllao.com/

Western Pacific Weather - http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
Typhoon2000 - http://www.typhoon2000.ph/


feel free to add if you know of any more valuable sites. I have many but mind you share yours

What does everyone think this season might deliver and what is your forecast?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA over the equator is expected to become a typhoon at exactly 5N! GFS has been confident and I agree due to the favorable conditions given. This might [but I hope not] end like TY Bopha last December 2012.

INTENSITY FORECAST:[All times are in GMT...]
Tropical Depression - Jan 04 9:00 PM
Tropical Storm [LINGLING] - Jan 05 6:00 PM
Severe Tropical Storm - Jan 06 12:00 PM
Typhoon - Jan 07 3:00 AM


This storm moves NW while at TS intensity then intensifies to a Severe tropical Storm. Continues to intensify into a typhoon then weakens while turning west. Strengthens again while moving SW and turns westerly due to the STR...

Another storm forms beside Lingling and will have a Fujiwhara effect with each other.

[mrbagyo]

it's getting a bit interesting now but I'm not totally sold with this one.
extremely low in latitude, heck. it even appears to be "spinning" below the equator if you look on the previous loop of the whole Wpac.

[dexterlabio]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA over the equator is expected to become a typhoon at exactly 5N! GFS has been confident and I agree due to the favorable conditions given. This might [but I hope not] end like TY Bopha last December 2012.

INTENSITY FORECAST:[All times are in GMT...]
Tropical Depression - Jan 04 9:00 PM
Tropical Storm [LINGLING] - Jan 05 6:00 PM
Severe Tropical Storm - Jan 06 12:00 PM
Typhoon - Jan 07 3:00 AM


This storm moves NW while at TS intensity then intensifies to a Severe tropical Storm. Continues to intensify into a typhoon then weakens while turning west. Strengthens again while moving SW and turns westerly due to the STR...

Another storm forms beside Lingling and will have a Fujiwhara effect with each other.

Is this prediction based on one GFS run? The previous GFS runs don't show a SW motion, but recurvature towards the open Pacific. That part is long range though. But yeah, it seems something will be forming if GFS was right.

[dexterlabio]

CMC is with GFS this time. If this pans out, this will be the first January typhoon since Roy(?) in 1988. It's not every year that we see a cyclone reaching typhoon strength in January. IMO a TS is more likely at this time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA over the equator is expected to become a typhoon at exactly 5N! GFS has been confident and I agree due to the favorable conditions given. This might [but I hope not] end like TY Bopha last December 2012.

INTENSITY FORECAST:[All times are in GMT...]
Tropical Depression - Jan 04 9:00 PM
Tropical Storm [LINGLING] - Jan 05 6:00 PM
Severe Tropical Storm - Jan 06 12:00 PM
Typhoon - Jan 07 3:00 AM


This storm moves NW while at TS intensity then intensifies to a Severe tropical Storm. Continues to intensify into a typhoon then weakens while turning west. Strengthens again while moving SW and turns westerly due to the STR...

Another storm forms beside Lingling and will have a Fujiwhara effect with each other.

Is this prediction based on one GFS run? The previous GFS runs don't show a SW motion, but recurvature towards the open Pacific. That part is long range though. But yeah, it seems something will be forming if GFS was right.

There is a broad area of low pressure near 0N southeast of Guam which is beginning to organize. But because of its size, it may take 4-7 days for it to be a TD.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This website shows some official information and unofficial, though the forecasts in here is more or less 70% accurate. Also has some weather charts by the HKO and other agencies...
http://typhoonstormwatch2012.blogspot.com/

============

At least the storm will not hit our country again!

Anyways, can we start making our forecasts for this season?



Have a happy new year!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PERSONAL FORECAST FOR 2014 WPAC TYPHOON SEASON

NUMBER
TROPICAL STORMS: 25
TYPHOONS: 15
SUPER TYPHOONS: 7


Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

2014 Typhoon Season is here! Here's hoping for a safe season with many fishes out to sea!

[euro6208]

environment looks favorable and these should ripen up even more as each month comes!

[euro6208]

12Z just in...

An astonishing 974 mb typhoon in the middle of the Philippine Sea!

Development starts in just 90 or so hours WOW!

CMC is with GFS this time. If this pans out, this will be the first January typhoon since Roy(?) in 1988. It's not every year that we see a cyclone reaching typhoon strength in January. IMO a TS is more likely at this time.

Indeed, typhoons are very rare for this month as Tropical Storms are more often...

Since 1987 (1 min) , there have been 4 seasons with a January Typhoon. 1987 Orchid, 1988 Roy , 1990 Koryn, 1992 Axel peaking at 95 knots, 115 knots, 75 knots, and 70 knots...

Most recent January typhoon occured in 2001 with Category 4 Soulik 115 knots but formation began on Dec 31...

[euro6208]

Through 174 hours.

Lingling south of guam and impacts Western Micronesia where it intensifies further east of Visayas.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking of a weaker version of STY Mike of 1990 due to similar conditions and the strengthening STR.

Not expecting super from this but accompanied by unusually favorable conditions and weakening monsoon.

If this hits land, I'm hoping that this will weaken....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Every run gets closer to land and the closest point is Samar Island on 1800 Jan 12.

I have observed since November 2012 that storms this close to the equator that are in the STR tend to be farther south and make landfall in the central and southern parts of the Philippines most recently HAIYAN and BOPHA. Hoping not for a deadly one this time.