Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[wxman57]

The UK Met Office has issued it's forecast. 7-13 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes. Quite a big range. See page 1...

[cycloneye]

NOAA=8-13
3-6
1-2

[cycloneye]

See text at first post.

[RL3AO]

The UK Met Office has issued it's forecast. 7-13 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes. Quite a big range. See page 1...

So 7 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes would actually be a correct forecast. Cool.

[cycloneye]

Below is an excerpt of the May NOAA forecast that has a caveat about the May forecast:

Uncertainties in the outlook are related to the timing and strength of El Niño, and to a limited confidence in model forecasts for Atlantic SST anomalies. Therefore, there is uncertainty in the extent to which these factors will suppress the warm phase of the AMO and tropical multi-decadal signal.

[WeatherGuesser]

The UK Met Office has issued it's forecast. 7-13 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes. Quite a big range. See page 1...

So 7 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes would actually be a correct forecast. Cool.

AKA 'we just want to cover all possibilities'

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discuss about how a quiet season may be bad.

Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced five hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

[WeatherGuesser]

Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity ...

That's why I don't understand all the fuss and hub-bub, contests and all over numbers. It only takes one.

[Macrocane]

The UK Met Office has issued it's forecast. 7-13 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes. Quite a big range. See page 1...

So 7 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes would actually be a correct forecast. Cool.

No, that's not how those probabilities work.
Lower range of tropical storms corresponds with the lower range of hurricanes, and high end with high end.

[Cyclenall]

NOAA=8-13
3-6
1-2

I have to strongly disagree with NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane season forecast, won't be that "good". Bold call to say 40% chance of normal activity and 10% chance above normal? More like 0.0000001% .

That's why I don't understand all the fuss and hub-bub, contests and all over numbers. It only takes one.

Well everyone else understands and it has nothing to do with how prepared those who are at risk with tropical cyclone hazards should be.

[meriland23]

Most seasons I have a rough guesstimate depending on a lot of factors including El Nino/La Nina.. but a lot of those times I am taken by surprise by it having more or less than anticipated. Do you feel it will be as predicted (lower than usual) or surprising this year? IYO.

[Hurricaneman]

Dr Jeff Masters discuss about how a quiet season may be bad.

Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced five hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

When he wrote this he somehow forgot 1965 Betsy in his examples probably an oversight

[cycloneye]

Here is a video by Levi Cowan about what may occur during the first week of June in Western Caribbean/SEGOM.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy4ygGwBpzI

[ninel conde]

JB says the active period is coming to an end but the east coast is at peril.

http://patriotpost.us/opinion/26136

personally, i see no peril this year.

[cycloneye]

FSU forecast is up at first post

[blp]

Quite amazing the drought we are in for majors. Look at this graphic in terms of days:



Main Article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/30/atlantic-hurricane-season-begins-sunday-will-record-streak-without-major-hurricane-end/

[cycloneye]

The June update by the CSU folks (Klotzbach/Gray) will be released on Monday around 11 AM EDT so stay tuned.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Quite amazing the drought we are in for majors. Look at this graphic in terms of days:



Main Article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/30/atlantic-hurricane-season-begins-sunday-will-record-streak-without-major-hurricane-end/

This streak, believe it or not, is not the longest in recorded history. There were 3,313 days between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

[ninel conde]

Quite amazing the drought we are in for majors. Look at this graphic in terms of days:



Main Article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/30/atlantic-hurricane-season-begins-sunday-will-record-streak-without-major-hurricane-end/

This streak, believe it or not, is not the longest in recorded history. There were 3,313 days between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

that should be broken by this time next season and its hard to say if 1860-1869 is all that accurate. it seems a very strong nw flow is setting up for hurricane season, even stronger than last season. will there ever again be a year without dominant nw flow?

[cycloneye]

Klotzbach/Gray updated their forecast and increased slightly the number of named storms and hurricanes.Read it at first post.