Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[cycloneye]

I know no one cares in December about what experts think the next hurricane season will turn out to be and after what occurred with them in 2013 more so but I am making this thread for information to the members.Is very,very early but the CSU folks have released a general assessment of factors that may contribute to how the 2014 season may be. But as time goes by,the list of experts releasing their forecasts will start to grow so stay tuned in the coming months for that. All the forecasts will be posted on the first post of the thread.

CSU --- December 10 Qualitative discussion of Hurricane Activity for 2014 North Atlantic season --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2013.pdf

April 10 Extended range forecast --- 9/3/1 --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2014.pdf

June 2 updated forecast --- 10/4/1 --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2014.pdf

July 31 updated forecast --- 10/4/1 http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2014.pdf

August 14 two week forecast from August 14 thru the 28th --- Below average --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 4_2014.pdf

August 28 two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10--- Below average --- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 8_2014.pdf

September 11 two week forecast from September 11 thru September 24 --- Below average --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 1_2014.pdf

September 25 two week forecast from September 25 thru October 8 --- Below average --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 5_2014.pdf

October-November forecast --- Below average --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... recast.pdf

Verification of 2014 forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2014.pdf



TSR --- December 12 Extended Range forecast of Hurricane Activity for 2014 North Atlantic season: 14/6/3 --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2014.pdf

April 7 forecast --- 12/5/2 --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2014.pdf

June 5 forecast --- 12/5/2 --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... un2014.pdf

July 4 forecast --- 12/5/2 --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ul2014.pdf

August 5 forecast --- 12/6/2 --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2014.pdf



NOAA --- May forecast --- 8-13 named storms --- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

August forecast --- 7-12 named storms http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

Accuweather --- Forecast for season --- 10 named storms /5 hurricanes --- http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... t/9073359/

Joe Bastardi --- Forecast for season --- 8-10 named storms --- http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ch-29-2014

ImpactWeather--- Forecast for 2014 North Atlantic season: 10/4/1 --- http://www.businessinsurance.com/articl ... 306|64|302

Levi Cowan --- First outlook for North Atlantic season: 8-10 named storms --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... ne-season/

Global Weather Oscillation firm --- Forecast of 2014 North Atlantic season: 17/8/3 --- http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

NC State forecast--- 8-11 named storms --- http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/hurricane2014/

UK Met Office (5/22/14) --- 7-13 named storms --- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... lantic2014

FSU COAPS (5/29/14) forecast --- 5-9 named storms --- http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes/

WSI --- 11/5/2 --- http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles ... -unchanged

[tolakram]

Good read. Looks like they are pretty convinced what caused the 2013 bust and will be incorporating it into future forecasts, so already the big bust has created opportunities to increase forecast accuracy.

[cycloneye]

TSR released their first 2014 forecast. You can read the complete report at first post but here are the highlights.

Based on current and projected climate signals, North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2014 is forecast to be close to the long-term (1950-2013) norm and 20% below the recent 2004-2013 10-year norm. U.S. landfalling hurricane activity is forecast to be close to the 2004-2013 10-year norm.

TSR forecasts:
•14 tropical storms including six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 11, six and three respectively, and to 2004-2013 norms of 16, eight and four respectively.
•An ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 106. The long-term and recent 2004-2013 norm values are 102 and 129 respectively.
•A 40% likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically, a 33% likelihood it will be in the middle one-third of years historically and a 27% chance it will be in the bottom one-third of years historically.
•Four tropical storm and two hurricane landfalls on the U.S. mainland.

The key factors behind the TSR forecast for a near-normal season are the anticipated persistence of slightly warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, and an expectation of weak El Ni&#241o conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean during August/September 2014. The former acts as a small enhancing effect and the latter acts as a small suppressing effect on North Atlantic hurricane activity.

It should be stressed that forecast uncertainties at this extended (December) lead are large. The precision of TSR's extended range outlooks between 1980 and 2013 is low.

[hurricanes1234]

In my opinion, they're forecasting a generally average season based on all past seasons. An average season sees 3 major hurricanes, with 6 hurricanes. I think this is reasonable, and I think next year will be a season like 2007 (no Category 5s though).

MY PERSONAL OPINION ONLY.

[cycloneye]

Good read. Looks like they are pretty convinced what caused the 2013 bust and will be incorporating it into future forecasts, so already the big bust has created opportunities to increase forecast accuracy.

Agree 100%. They will enter in new territory in terms of forecasting as they gather new information about small scale changes and how the Thermoline Circulation is behaving.

[blp]

Good read. Looks like they are pretty convinced what caused the 2013 bust and will be incorporating it into future forecasts, so already the big bust has created opportunities to increase forecast accuracy.

Agree 100%. They will enter in new territory in terms of forecasting as they gather new information about small scale changes and how the Thermoline Circulation is behaving.

It was an interesting observation. I wonder if they can apply this back to see if this is part of a longer trend or just an anomaly to this year.

[ninel conde]

i think 2013 has shook everyone up and just about everyone will be conservative in 2014.

[CrazyC83]

I don't think the overall conditions have changed one iota from the 2013 season. If they don't change in the short to medium term, then 2014 looks to be another (mostly) inactive season IMO.

[WeatherEmperor]

I don't think the overall conditions have changed one iota from the 2013 season. If they don't change in the short to medium term, then 2014 looks to be another (mostly) inactive season IMO.

Are you talking about dry air in the atlantic basin?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[CrazyC83]

I don't think the overall conditions have changed one iota from the 2013 season. If they don't change in the short to medium term, then 2014 looks to be another (mostly) inactive season IMO.

Are you talking about dry air in the atlantic basin?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Correct, dry air and stability relative to normal.

[cycloneye]

In my view,the most important factor to watch will be how ENSO is doing in the next few months. As we know,it has been since 2009 that El Nino was present in the equatorial Pacific and since that year it has been Neutral until now. It will be interesting to see if El Nino comes at some point in 2014 to see if it's presence affects the mid level dry factor that was a big detriment to the past 2013 season. Follow the ENSO updates here. Let's see how the experts forecast this 2014 season as ENSO do it's dance between Neutral and possibly going to El Nino and how this affects their projections.

[TheStormExpert]

IMO, the likelihood of an El Niño is higher than the likelihood of an La Niña or Neutral conditions. I'm actually hoping for an El Niño to occur especially after how much the 2013 season underperformed. At least if we get an El Niño no one will be shocked to actually see a quiet season like 2013 again.

[ninel conde]

I don't think the overall conditions have changed one iota from the 2013 season. If they don't change in the short to medium term, then 2014 looks to be another (mostly) inactive season IMO.

Are you talking about dry air in the atlantic basin?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Correct, dry air and stability relative to normal.

so far the multi-year trend of a very stable atlantic continues.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

far below normal. if its still far below normal in late may it might be wise to expect a meagre season, regardless of ENSO.

[Ntxw]

Statistically speaking it's more likely to be active than 2013. Of course that's not saying much since 2013 was just unusually quiet. Question is will it be another slop-mess of a year or bang for the buck, usually the hints come late spring and early summer. If the gulf and Carib has something decent in June/July that isn't so much subtropical or dies then it's a good sign of an active season vice versa because it signals the atmosphere is recovering. Something to watch will be Tornado season, there were big ones in 2013 but not that many on a wide scale as the year ended up well below normal with the hurricane season. Not so much the storms themselves but shows what kind of instability or stability is in the atmosphere.

[Hurricaneman]

Statistically speaking it's more likely to be active than 2013. Of course that's not saying much since 2013 was just unusually quiet. Question is will it be another slop-mess of a year or bang for the buck, usually the hints come late spring and early summer. If the gulf and Carib has something decent in June/July that isn't so much subtropical or dies then it's a good sign of an active season vice versa because it signals the atmosphere is recovering. Something to watch will be Tornado season, there were big ones in 2013 but not that many on a wide scale as the year ended up well below normal with the hurricane season. Not so much the storms themselves but shows what kind of instability or stability is in the atmosphere.

There seems to be a connection somewhat and may be a factor towards forecasting the hurricane season

It also seems to be that if April, May and June especially May and June are active as far as tornadoes that a more quality over quantity year will like 1980, 1981, 1989, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011 But this idea has its outliers with low hurricane activity like 1982, 1983, 1984, 1990, 1991, 1992{Other than Andrew nothing else was notable} 1993, 1994, 1997, 2007, 2009, due most likely to a traditional El Nino or dry air

So if we have a have a high number of tornadoes in the April, May, and June timeframe and no El Nino pops up then the 2014 hurricane season may be a bad one that people were expecting last year but if June is quieter in terms of tornadoes or an El Nino develops then we may have a quantity over quality year which if you like tracking hurricanes is no good{but good if something landfalls as something weak instead of strong}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ptarmigan]

Statistically speaking it's more likely to be active than 2013. Of course that's not saying much since 2013 was just unusually quiet. Question is will it be another slop-mess of a year or bang for the buck, usually the hints come late spring and early summer. If the gulf and Carib has something decent in June/July that isn't so much subtropical or dies then it's a good sign of an active season vice versa because it signals the atmosphere is recovering. Something to watch will be Tornado season, there were big ones in 2013 but not that many on a wide scale as the year ended up well below normal with the hurricane season. Not so much the storms themselves but shows what kind of instability or stability is in the atmosphere.

2013 is an outlier like 2005 for the opposite reason. I have never seen back to back inactive season during the warm phase of Atlantic. I have seen back to back inactive seasons during cool phase.

[tolakram]

I wonder if the big cold outbreak we just experienced will help to mix up the atmoshpere a bit?

[Ntxw]

2013 is an outlier like 2005 for the opposite reason. I have never seen back to back inactive season during the warm phase of Atlantic. I have seen back to back inactive seasons during cool phase.

That's a good point but we can't say it won't be just because it hasn't before. We have to look at why, the atmosphere was dry globally overall and has been for several years. 2013 was anomalous yes, but it's been building as we saw a sloppy couple of season before that (refer to vertical instability). Something has to change up there for there to be good merit that it will not repeat.

[wxman57]

Even if anyone does have a good handle on precisely what happened in 2013 (which I don't think is true), then the next question would be can such conditions be forecast many months in advance? Phil Klotzbach & I have discussed last season quite a bit and there are significant questions as to whether such conditions can be forecast for more than a month in advance. Instability across the Caribbean & Tropical Atlantic remains well below normal. Will that change by summer? Who can tell?

[TheStormExpert]

I feel that 2014 will once again be a below average season somewhat similar to 2013. Might as well just play it safe and expect the possibility of well below average instability throughout the Atlantic basin especially the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Pretty decent chance that this season will in fact be an El Niño season since we have not seen an El Niño season in over four years now. Also would not be surprised to see a good bit of dry air and wind shear throughout the season especially if an El Niño does occur. But of course it is WAY TOO SOON to be making these types of predictions for the 2014 season especially after the big bust of a season 2013 was.