ninel conde wrote:I think the key to alot forecast nums is early season development. if we go thru june/july with nothing then it will be a very skimpy season.
[color=#4040FF]I found your original statement to be wrong, but you later qualified your statement by adding your assumption that August & September may have less favorable conditions this year. While it tremendously pains me to agree with you, that general point does make sense. That is not to say that I don't believe that there will be a few windows of opportunity for tropical development to occur, I certainly would bet against a season having only 2-3 named storms.
Even if there were only a few named storms, I think you have to appreciate the potential risk that can occur with just one landfall - even a landfall far LESS intense than Andrew. Assume for the moment this this season might have only one named storm, perhaps just under hurricane threshold, and depending on where it hits, the speed of forward motion, and many other factors the result might still be many dead from mudslides, severe beach erosion and loss to commerce, possibly cause a large ship to breach with thousands of gallons of crude or other chemicals to spill into our rivers or ocean, wind damage caused by tornadoes well removed from the center of the storm or straight line wind that could still badly damage cars, mobile homes, houses due to fallen trees or electric lines or even people hit by flying debris. I am a severe weather enthusiast and enjoy active seasons. I'll be the first to agree that an inactive season with only a couple weak storms is unlikely to cause much noteworthy interest. Typically most here who might agree that this will be a slow season, are not necessarily flippant in their assessment that this will be a "dead year" or that there is nothing to worry about. Yes, respect the science that may support a hypothesis... but also appreciate & understand the reverence by those who in light of the obvious, are keenly aware & have witnessed Mother Nature's capacity to throw a curve ball when no one ever saw it coming.
I may not pull out my video camera and drive 100 miles, just to simply witness 4"-6" or rain and sustained 50 mile an hour winds. That doesn't diminish the fear some old folks might have while shaking in their boots because they can't afford homeowners insurance and are scared that they might finally lose their roof, or others worried about losing their jobs due to their older cars potentially not starting again after being submerged for hours. Any numeric prediction is either going to be considered correct or wrong, yet the respect for having made it is likely derived out of both the science that backed the conclusion as well as the manner & humility in which the observation was communicated.
Having said all that, i'll assume that site moderators might prefer that this thread - Expert Forecasts for 2014 N. Atlantic Hurricane Season, be returned to its applicable "Expert" content (which by the way, is a thread that neither of us essentially qualify to post or forecast in).
