What storms are gonna be the big ones for 2014?

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Which Atlantic/EPAC storms will be the big ones for 2014? What will be the maximum category?
Post your fanon predictions here! (This works just like last year's "big ones for 2013" thread, except this is for 2014.)

[hurricanes1234]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my amateur opinion (see disclaimer in red):
ATL: Really can't say!
EPAC: Fausto - First major hurricane and probably a Category 3 hurricane.
Marie - Second major hurricane and also a Category 3 hurricane.

I'd let you know when more realistic ideas come into my head!

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my amateur opinion (see disclaimer in red):
ATL: Really can't say!
EPAC: Fausto - First major hurricane and probably a Category 3 hurricane.
Marie - Second major hurricane and also a Category 3 hurricane.

I'd let you know when more realistic ideas come into my head!

Oki doki loki! Thanks for your expectations! I honestly believe Faust will be the biggie for the EPAC lol. XD (gets Fausticorn)
And Marie? Well, the Maria (2011?) of the EPAC? LOL!! XD
Atlantic? PROBBBSSSS Hannah. Isaiah?
DEFO NOT "SPEEDY" GONZALO (tropical storm that is kinda like jerry XD)
Imma go with my gut instince, Hannah a September C4ish.
Faust a C4/5ish fishie in da middle of the EPAC in July!! NO landfall though. Emilia coming back with a new name! #swag
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

No problem! I don't think we'll see more than one Category 4 next year. However, I think this Category 4 will be in the EPAC, probably at 140-145 mph. The strongest storm in the Atlantic, in my opinion, might be a Category 3, no higher. But I'm really unsure of the Atlantic, after all, it's the wildest basin on Earth! From 1 named storm to 28 named storms, from 0 major hurricanes to a whopping 9 of them, best we stick with Mr. EPAC!

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster, and is NOT backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Here are my thoughts

Arthur: forms in the western Caribbean and heads north and peaks at 60mph in the central Gulf making landfall in Morgan City, LA at 45mph as dry air from the west gets entrained July 3rd

Bertha: forms into a tropical depression from a tropical wave near the Cape Verde islands and struggles due to stable until about 50W and starts to intensify a little as it hits near Barbados as a 50mph tropical storm then it heads straight west and has a peak at 85mph in the central Caribbean and makes landfall in Belieze as a 70mph tropical storm July 25th

Cristobal: Forms near Bermuda and quickly develops heading west having peak intensity halfway between Bermuda and North Carolina at 70mph turns towards the north a 1\2 day later and landfalls in Buzzards Bay as a 50mph TS August 8th

DOLLY: Forms from a tropical wave SE of the Cape Verde islands but is slow to intensify until about 60W 20N when a bout of major intensification begins and has a peak intensity of 130mph as it landfalls in Palm Beach, FL and emerges near Tampa as a 100mph hurricane and re intensifies in the gulf with a secondary peak of 125mph and landfalls in Corpus Christi, TX as a 80mph hurricane due to drier air from Texas August 15th

Edouard: Forms from a frontal system off the east coast near North Carolina and peaks at 45mph and landfalls in Norfolk, VA as a 40mph tropical storm August 16th

FAY: this is the big one of the year. It forms from a tropical wave WSW of the Cape Verde islands and heads west to WNW until it hits St Croix as a 125mph hurricane an continues WNW and peaks in intensity at 170mph 250miles ESE of the northern Bahamas and misses the Bahamas and makes landfall in Charleston, SC as a 120mph hurricane September 1st

Gonzalo: Forms in the GOM near Texas and landfalls at peak at 45mph in Beaumont, TX August 29th

Hanna: forms from a tropical wave at 45W 20N but never gains much intensity and peaks at 40mph as shear decapitates it September 5th

Isaias: forms near the Azores and peaks at 65mph as it landfalls in Morocco as a 40mph tropical storm September 15th

JOSEPHINE: forms in the western Caribbean and quickly peaks at 140mph as it heads NE and landfalls in eastern Cuba as a 135mph Hurricane October 1st and heads more NNE and makes a second landfall in Bermuda as a 65mph tropical storm October 3rd

Kyle: similar to 2008 forms from a tropical wave north of Puerto Rico but this only peaks a 65mph and landfalls in Nantucket island as a 45mph tropical storm October 2nd

Laura: Forms in the Central Atlantic and peaks at 50mph and goes out to sea October 20th

Marco: Forms on the east coast from a front and peaks at 65mph as it turns out to sea November 2nd

NANA: Forms in Western Caribbean and intensifies into a 100mph hurricane heads north towards Western Cuba landfalling at 100mph and shoots NE missing Florida and heading out to sea November 10th

Omar: forms in the central Atlantic and peaks at 45mph and gets sheared out and dissipates November 25th

so in summary

my numbers based on this are 15\5\3 with Fay being the biggest of the season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

A peak of 170 mph for Fay? I'm going with a near-normal season having 2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic, one weak to moderate Category 4 and one Category 3. However, I strongly believe the EPAC will be active, with 5 or 6 major hurricanes, possibly having two or more Category 4s but no Category 5s. I think so, because I can imagine a weak El Niño coming into play when the hurricane season peaks around August and September.

THIS POST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH! IT IS ONLY MY OPINION, AND IS NOT BACKED BY SOUND METEOROLOGICAL DATA!

[lester]

There will be no big ones next year, as the 2014 season has been permanently cancelled

[hurricanes1234]

There will be no big ones next year, as the 2014 season has been permanently cancelled

Maybe for the Atlantic, I can see a weak or below-average season next year, but the increasing chances of an El Niño make me think more and more that the Pacific will be active.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion and may or may not be backed up with solid meteorogical data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I tend to think there will not be a really big storm in the Atlantic in 2014 as I am leaning towards an El Nino situation. However, I do think one hurricane will probably strike the US somewhere, most likely the western Gulf Coast and probably close to the peak of the season. As for a name for this storm, I will go with Fay, just something about that name. I have had vibes off of Isaias for years though but I tend to think he would be a lesser October storm in the western Caribbean, likely for Cuba.

-Andrew92

[stormkite]

There will be T/Storms /Hurricanes next season in the Atlantic there always will be but when it comes to predicting intensity's at this point of time you may as well go to a $10 crystal ball reader at your local circus .

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my thinking for the 2014 season. Totals: 10/4/1.

Tropical Storm Arthur (June 24-July 3, 60 kt / 984mb) - Large storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall over NE Florida. It erratically travels over land and back into the Atlantic, hugging the East Coast. As it does so, it strengthens, nearly into a hurricane, before drifting into the mid-Atlantic. Thanks to a wet spring, a massive flood event occurs in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Bertha (August 2-3, 35 kt / 1010mb) - Short lived storm forms in the central tropical Atlantic and quickly dissipates.

Hurricane Cristobal (August 13-17, 70 kt / 989mb) - After struggling as a wave, a low forms south of Cuba and becomes a hurricane just before making landfall in the Yucatan. It gets trapped south by a ridge and dissipates over land.

Tropical Storm Dolly (August 19-22, 50 kt / 1003mb) - A fast moving storm develops near Cape Verde. It never really gets organized and dissipates in shear and dry air.

Tropical Storm Edouard (August 21-24, 60 kt / 994mb) - From a stalled front in the central Gulf of Mexico, a low forms. It tracks north, quickly developing, nearly becoming a hurricane before landfall in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Fay (September 3-6, 50 kt / 999mb) - What else is new? Another storm that forms near Cape Verde and quickly dissipates due to shear and dry air.

Hurricane Gonzalo (September 22-October 2, 85 kt / 961mb) - Like most of the earlier storms, shear slows and really hampers this one. Forming near Cape Verde, it struggles for days in the eastern Atlantic. However, it remains intact throughout as a weak storm. Rapid development occurs in the north-central Atlantic near the end of its lifespan, becoming a Category 2 storm just before becoming extratropical.

Hurricane Hanna (September 24-27, 75 kt / 985mb) - A rapidly developing storm forms in the western Gulf of Mexico. After a slow start, it blossoms into a Category 1 hurricane just before landfall in southern Texas.

Tropical Storm Isaias (October 5-6, 40 kt / 1007mb) - Same story as most of the others, this time in the central Atlantic. Fast up, fast down, dies by shear.

Major Hurricane Josephine (November 3-11, 120 kt / 927mb) - After over two full years without a major hurricane, the drought finally ends - in November!?!?! A classic late season storm, forms in a fashion similar to Ida in 2009, however it rapidly intensifies to Category 4 as it remains just offshore of Central America in a small favorable patch. It weakens quite rapidly as it runs through the Yucatan Channel, then gets trapped in the jet stream as it approaches and crosses Florida as a Category 1 storm. Following the jet stream, it becomes an exceptionally powerful hybrid storm, even stronger than Sandy, as it runs along the Gulf Stream in a series of jet streaks. Luckily, this time it stays offshore...and lightning does not strike twice.

[TheStormExpert]

Not liking your predictions for Dolly "Hurricaneman"! Luckily odds are possibly in favor of this season being an El Niño season and being quite similar to 2013 again.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Lemme think... Hanna, Fay, Isaiah might be majors.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Will answer this question on November 30.

[StormClouds63]

Arthur and Gonzalo ... my early numbers are 9/4/2

[Andrew92]

Actually, I would like to amend my previous post of Fay. Here's a surprise for all of you....

I'm going with Marie and Rachel as the big ones this year. I'll let you figure this one out.

-Andrew92

[CaliforniaResident]

Actually, I would like to amend my previous post of Fay. Here's a surprise for all of you....

I'm going with Marie and Rachel as the big ones this year. I'll let you figure this one out.

-Andrew92

Which one will be the one that affects Southern California?

[Andrew92]

Leaning Marie as the one that affects SoCal and/or Arizona, with Rachel going further south at this time.

-Andrew92

[CaliforniaResident]

Leaning Marie as the one that affects SoCal and/or Arizona, with Rachel going further south at this time.

-Andrew92

http://www.rhughes.com/could-a-hurrican ... alifornia/


Imagine a hurricane hitting a city that declare "stormwatch emergency" when a quarter of an inch of rain is forecast to fall (no exaggeration). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0 The homes here in Southern California are are build to withstand quakes and NOT rain or wind. What would happen if Linda in 1997 had made landfall in downtown L.A? What if Marie makes a beeline for L.A. or San Diego? Would the amount of damage and destruction by far worse than a similar size hurricane would cause on the East Coast due to the way the construction is here?

[Kingarabian]

Leaning Marie as the one that affects SoCal and/or Arizona, with Rachel going further south at this time.

-Andrew92

http://www.rhughes.com/could-a-hurrican ... alifornia/


Imagine a hurricane hitting a city that declare "stormwatch emergency" when a quarter of an inch of rain is forecast to fall (no exaggeration). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0 The homes here in Southern California are are build to withstand quakes and NOT rain or wind. What would happen if Linda in 1997 had made landfall in downtown L.A? What if Marie makes a beeline for L.A. or San Diego? Would the amount of damage and destruction by far worse than a similar size hurricane would cause on the East Coast due to the way the construction is here? Might sustained winds of 80 mph cause more damage in L.A. than an 8.0 earthquake?

I know it's better to be safe than sorry, and you're looking out for your fellow Californian's, but it has been 22 years since a Hurricane struck Hawaii... This just shows how unfavorable conditions are in some parts of the Pacific. So it'll be very tough for a hurricane to reach California.