What storms are gonna be the big ones for 2014?

[Kingarabian]

Leaning Marie as the one that affects SoCal and/or Arizona, with Rachel going further south at this time.

-Andrew92

http://www.rhughes.com/could-a-hurrican ... alifornia/


Imagine a hurricane hitting a city that declare "stormwatch emergency" when a quarter of an inch of rain is forecast to fall (no exaggeration). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0 The homes here in Southern California are are build to withstand quakes and NOT rain or wind. What would happen if Linda in 1997 had made landfall in downtown L.A? What if Marie makes a beeline for L.A. or San Diego? Would the amount of damage and destruction by far worse than a similar size hurricane would cause on the East Coast due to the way the construction is here? Might sustained winds of 80 mph cause more damage in L.A. than an 8.0 earthquake?

I know it's better to be safe than sorry, and you're looking out for your fellow Californian's, but it has been 22 years since a Hurricane struck Hawaii... This just shows how unfavorable conditions are in some parts of the Pacific. So it'll be very tough for a hurricane to reach California.

[Yellow Evan]

Leaning Marie as the one that affects SoCal and/or Arizona, with Rachel going further south at this time.

-Andrew92

http://www.rhughes.com/could-a-hurrican ... alifornia/


Imagine a hurricane hitting a city that declare "stormwatch emergency" when a quarter of an inch of rain is forecast to fall (no exaggeration). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0 The homes here in Southern California are are build to withstand quakes and NOT rain or wind. What would happen if Linda in 1997 had made landfall in downtown L.A? What if Marie makes a beeline for L.A. or San Diego? Would the amount of damage and destruction by far worse than a similar size hurricane would cause on the East Coast due to the way the construction is here? Might sustained winds of 80 mph cause more damage in L.A. than an 8.0 earthquake?

I know it's better to be safe than sorry, and you're looking out for your fellow Californian's, but it has been 22 years since a Hurricane struck Hawaii... This just shows how unfavorable conditions are in some parts of the Pacific. So it'll be very tough for a hurricane to reach California.

It happened in 1858, but very little is known about it.

I'd bet against an actual landfalling hurricane in CA.

[Ntxw]

I don't know much about SoCal but I would think it would be able to handle winds like that. Those speeds cause damage anywhere but the swaying isn't all that different than an earthquake I would think (again I'm not certified for this kind of info just a guess!). Doesn't the Santa Ana winds sometimes get really high too? I would think the biggest impact for this area would be flash flooding and landslides especially if it's a slow moving TC or remnants.

[Andrew92]

I agree, Marie will not be a hurricane that far north. But I am going with a scenario where it strikes northern Baja California and produces heavy flooding in California and/or Arizona, which does happen once in a while, especially in an El Nino year.

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

I'll throw my two cents in here. Given the last two major El Nino's (1997 and 2009) having at least one intense long-tracker, I'll go with Dolly as the big one of the year, forming late August and becoming a major in early September, brushing the northern Antilles,and going out to sea.

[Yellow Evan]

I echo that winds won't be that big of an issue in a CA landfalling hurricane. The worst case IMO is when a slow moving TS hits BCP, and it's moisture is enhanced by a trough (like Octave 83 or Norma 70). The main killer with EPAC storms in general is flooding.

As for names, Odile and Norbert strike me, as well as Hernan and Elida.

[Kingarabian]

I echo that winds won't be that big of an issue in a CA landfalling hurricane. The worst case IMO is when a slow moving TS hits BCP, and it's moisture is enhanced by a trough (like Octave 83 or Norma 70). The main killer with EPAC storms in general is flooding.

As for names, Odile and Norbert strike me, as well as Hernan and Elida.

Ditto. And the storms don't have to strong at all to make strong, serious impacts.

[CaliforniaResident]

As of now, I'd say Iselle is going to be the biggest event of this season.

[Steve820]

For me, the big ones for 2014 will be:

Atlantic:

*Dolly strengthens to a major hurricane in early September and makes a landfall in the Gulf Coast, causing damage rivaling that of Gustav and Ike.

*Gonzalo, an October major, will rapidly strengthen to possibly Category 5 status and cause incredible destruction in Central America, similar to Mitch in 1998.

East Pacific:

*Iselle, a currently active storm which already reached C4 intensity, would cause plenty of impacts in Hawaii.

*Lowell will be a long-lasting Category 4 during late August, and it will make landfall on the Baja California tip as a Category 2 around September 3.

*Marie will strengthen to Category 2 status before moving rapidly northward to strike Southern California as a TD.

*Rachel will rapidly strengthen to become a strong Category 5 with winds of around 185 mph, and it will become one of the strongest EPac storms on record.

These are just my predictions and are not meant to be taken seriously. If these predictions actually came true I'll be surprised

[somethingfunny]

As of now, I'd say Iselle is going to be the biggest event of this season.

If we're going outside of the Atlantic, Supertyphoon Rammasun was pretty intense.

[chaser1]

Hands down, my guess would be Dolly! Don't know why, just sounds like a big one!

[CFLHurricane]

Hands down, my guess would be Dolly! Don't know why, just sounds like a big one!

Actually I believe the correct answer is none, because SAL.

[TheStormExpert]

Arthur, that was the big one this season IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my amateur opinion (see disclaimer in red):
ATL: Really can't say!
EPAC: Fausto - First major hurricane and probably a Category 3 hurricane.
Marie - Second major hurricane and also a Category 3 hurricane.

I'd let you know when more realistic ideas come into my head!

The part with Fausto being the first major hurricane was very, VERY incorrect!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: Arthur, that was the big one this season IMO.

Going to agree and say this as well. There very well might be another cat 2 or short lived weak cat 3 that will harmlessly go out to sea but think as far as big landfall storms go Arthur was it.

[CaliforniaResident]

My predictions revised:

We already had Arthur but it will remain the strongest landfall of the season.
Dolly will make landfall in Florida on September 15 as a cat 1.
Fay will make landfall in Louisiana on October 3 also as a cat 1.

The biggest shocker will be that Rachel will make landfall in Southern California on September 28 as a low end TS.