How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

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How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?

Poll ended at Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:47 pm

Between +0.6C thru +0.9C
1
2%
+1.0C
1
2%
+1.1C
1
2%
+1.2C
1
2%
+1.3C
0
No votes
+1.4C
1
2%
+1.5C
2
5%
+1.6C
2
5%
+1.7C
2
5%
+1.8C
4
9%
+1.9C
3
7%
+2.0C
10
23%
+2.1C
2
5%
+2.2C
0
No votes
+2.3C
3
7%
+2.4C
1
2%
+2.5 and above
10
23%
 
Total votes: 44
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Siker
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

#41 Postby Siker » Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:06 pm

Frank2 wrote:Thanks for the update - what you said makes sense, and from what I've been told the MJO issue has nothing to do with the El Nino event, because from what I'm told one is atmospheric and one is oceanic...


I only have a mediocre understanding of all of the different components of the MJO, but from what I have read the MJO being over the pacific (phases 7 and 8 primarily?) encourages westerly winds which thus encourages the continued transport of warm water to the EPAC.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:27 pm

This poll closes on April 30th at 6:47 PM EDT so those who have not voted can come and vote for your preference.
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#43 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:24 am

There has not been a HUGE WWB because WPAC storms fail to intensify which is hindering El Niño development despite some warming in the East Pacific. I now decide to lower my forecast for El Niño intensity to +2.0ºC. However, time will tell.
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#44 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:51 am

I've downgraded my forecast from over +2.5° to about +2.0° for the most. I'm very new to this, and I don't understand almost all of the things, but to me, and based on what I've been seeing, some things aren't looking as favourable as they did a while ago. However, as I said, I'm not experienced at this.
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#45 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:21 am

Poll will close in 5 hours. My forecast of 2.0 is final because of some major warming in the eastern Pacific specifically Niño region 1+2.
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#46 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:23 am

Definitely above 1.5 for this year.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:53 pm

Poll has closed. Now let's see the reality down the road of how warm El Nino will be at peak.
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#48 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:07 pm

We all lost, there was no El Nino in 2014. :)
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Re:

#49 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:16 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:We all lost, there was no El Nino in 2014. :)


I should have added none of the above option. :)
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#50 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:26 pm

The question now is will there be an El Niño?

I'm now leaning towards the idea of this possible El Niño event busting and fizzling out which will still once again lead to a quiet 2015 hurricane season.
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#51 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:55 pm

Winner is the one who chose +0.9C
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Re:

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:25 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:We all lost, there was no El Nino in 2014. :)


Turns out there was.
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Re: Re:

#53 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:We all lost, there was no El Nino in 2014. :)


Turns out there was.


and it was the 1 person that voted .6-.9
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