How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

[cycloneye]

A good poll to sample the members about the most important topic weatherwise that will make the most headlines and discussion in the weather community. Let's see what the members think this upcoming El Nino will be at it's peak. Poll will close on April 30 at 6:47 pm EDT.

I say +2.1C

[Ntxw]

My vote is +1.9C

[Kingarabian]

I'm going to be conservative and say +2.0C

[cycloneye]

My vote is +1.9C

You vote was erased because I left out one option (+1.2C) and when that happens the poll erases it's votes. So vote again.

[CrazyC83]

+3.0C.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm going with +2.5 and above since the current signs already indicate something brewing in the Pacific related to El Niño which may make it turn out to be as strong as, if not, stronger than 1997, in my opinion.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I went with 1.4C. This might be a little conservative.

I don't see us exceeding the 1997-98 El Nino quite yet. Remember, the developing El Nino then was really helped by a huge WWB generated by Typhoon Isa in April. We'll have to see how active the WPAC gets this spring.

[dexterlabio]

I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C

[CaliforniaResident]

I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C

Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.

[dexterlabio]

Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.

LOL it depends where you're at. If I return to San Francisco before winter I may be pleased with this El Nino. But if we're talking about its potential effects in Southeast Asia, it is literally "hell". There are indigenous people in some regions who heavily rely on nature, and extreme weather phenomenon like the 1997 EN will put them in danger.

[euro6208]

I voted 2.5 and we are already 0.1 ahead of 1997!

I agree with many that all eyes will be on the Western Pacific like what we saw in April 1997 in Super Typhoon Isa as we enter april...

Strong Typhoon = More Westerly Wind Burst = Strong El Nino...

[Yellow Evan]

I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C

Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.

I would not root for super El Nino's. Even in California, floods can cause devastation, and large El Nino's cause droughts among Asia and flooding in South America. I'm hoping this one peaks between 1 to 2C, as I get some rain and my basin gets storms but the global effects won't be as extreme.

[cigtyme]

Going to go with a 1.7, No Scientific reasoning, just I like the number 7

[BigB0882]

I went with 1.8 Complete guess. I don't understand all this ENSO stuff at all. This summer my project will be to learn about ENSO as much as I can.

[tolakram]

2.0 ... uneducated guess.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if it is +2.5.

[SeGaBob]

Went with 2.3... no particular reasoning though

[gatorcane]

I went with 2.0 but might be conservative.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

+2.4°C because the warm pool at the subsurface is warmer than 1997, the SST's are warmer than of 1997. But because the westerlies aren't that strong, that is why I voted lower than 1997.

[CrazyC83]

You'll have high risk of Haiyan-like storms at alarming frequencies in the WPAC with a super El Nino...no one wins, ever.