How will SAL affect this year's season?

[CFLHurricane]

Will dry air from the Sahara be a problem this year?

[hurricanes1234]

This is a good question. Yes, to a point, I think dry air might slightly inhibit activity like with some seasons, but not as much as last year, that was anomalous. I think the main inhibition would be the possible El Niño.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Have to see how the NAO turns out--if it's positive, the stronger ridge will direct more SAL off Africa. If it's negative, we won't see as much dust emerge into the Atlantic. The IOD looks like it will be negative this year (as it has been for a larger part of the past few years), which is good--we should see stronger waves and a wetter Sahel overall (less dust).

[Cyclenall]

The main inhibition I think will be how stable the airmass across the Atlantic basin will be, as always. A super El Nino will be the ultimate snuffing on an already lousy setup. Yes you can tell I have no hope for this upcoming season .

[Frank2]

Good explanation of SAL in today's MIA WSFO discussion:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
IT IS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY
WHEN THE DRIEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. IN ADDITION, BUT
NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED TO THIS MID LEVEL DRYING, THERE IS SOME
SAHARAN AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS THAT BEGAN TO BE PRESENT IN SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SAHARAN AIRMASS IS WELL MIXED SINCE
ITS ORIGIN FROM AFRICA AND HAS A HIGH CONTENT OF MOISTURE DUE TO ITS
PASSAGE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THEREFORE, ITS EFFECT ON THE
REDUCTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LESS. SAL CAN BE NOTED
IN THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM JUL 11 AS A VERY SLIGHT DRYING AROUND 2
KM. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS SLIGHT DRYING BELOW 700 MB.
THE SAHARAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE THE GREATEST EFFECT REDUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE THOSE THAT MAKE A RAPID TRANSIT
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC ESPECIALLY DUE TO A FAST EXPANSION OR
WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE.

[Alyono]

Have to see how the NAO turns out--if it's positive, the stronger ridge will direct more SAL off Africa. If it's negative, we won't see as much dust emerge into the Atlantic. The IOD looks like it will be negative this year (as it has been for a larger part of the past few years), which is good--we should see stronger waves and a wetter Sahel overall (less dust).

It has been pointed out here multiple times by meteorologists that a negative IOD causes WEAKER waves

[WPBWeather]

The main inhibition I think will be how stable the airmass across the Atlantic basin will be, as always. A super El Nino will be the ultimate snuffing on an already lousy setup. Yes you can tell I have no hope for this upcoming season .

Maybe you were not serious, but there is no Super El Nino anywhere on any horizon. There is not really even an El Nino in the cards--the predictions (of a Super or even a strong El Nino) from earlier this year have been walked back by most serious weather monitors.

[Cyclenall]

The main inhibition I think will be how stable the airmass across the Atlantic basin will be, as always. A super El Nino will be the ultimate snuffing on an already lousy setup. Yes you can tell I have no hope for this upcoming season .

Maybe you were not serious, but there is no Super El Nino anywhere on any horizon. There is not really even an El Nino in the cards--the predictions (of a Super or even a strong El Nino) from earlier this year have been walked back by most serious weather monitors.

Did you not read the date in which I posted that? That was early April when every sign (except one I think) pointed to a strong El Nino and a decent chance at a super one. Like all things in weather, expect the unexpected and now the unexpected is unfolding for ENSO. My thoughts on the Atlantic season have not changed.

[WPBWeather]

The main inhibition I think will be how stable the airmass across the Atlantic basin will be, as always. A super El Nino will be the ultimate snuffing on an already lousy setup. Yes you can tell I have no hope for this upcoming season .

Maybe you were not serious, but there is no Super El Nino anywhere on any horizon. There is not really even an El Nino in the cards--the predictions (of a Super or even a strong El Nino) from earlier this year have been walked back by most serious weather monitors.

Did you not read the date in which I posted that? That was early April when every sign (except one I think) pointed to a strong El Nino and a decent chance at a super one. Like all things in weather, expect the unexpected and now the unexpected is unfolding for ENSO. My thoughts on the Atlantic season have not changed.

Yes, I now see the earlier posting date. My mistake. Many hope you are correct about the Atlantic, but no one really knows what will happen. My feeling is that we will see more activity that the earlier projections indicated.

[Hurricaneman]

The SAL at the moment is causing the MDR instability to be pretty putrid but as for how it will play out in future months is yet to be determined and the current SAL is quite normal for July

[SeGaBob]

Ask 93L...

[TheStormExpert]

Ask 93L...

To describe it in four words. "2013 All Over Again!"

[MGC]

At least 93L still has a chance....what about TD2? Dry air is eating everything up....just like my grandkids this week......MGC

[CFLHurricane]

Whelp, looks like uncle SAL is going to steal this season from us, too

What will it take to make him go away?!

[NDG]

Whelp, looks like uncle SAL is going to steal this season from us, too

What will it take to make him go away?!

A total collapse of the Atlantic ridge would do it, which will not happen, lol.
All seriously there should be some weakening of the Atlantic ridge which then less SAL gets carried westward across the Atlantic as we head towards the heart of the hurricane season but by the look of things it could stay above average through the rest of the season.

[TheStormExpert]

Whelp, looks like uncle SAL is going to steal this season from us, too

What will it take to make him go away?!

A total collapse of the Atlantic ridge would do it, which will not happen, lol.
All seriously there should be some weakening of the Atlantic ridge which then less SAL gets carried westward across the Atlantic as we head towards the heart of the hurricane season but by the look of things it could stay above average through the rest of the season.

At this rate it would take rain in the Saharan desert.

[NDG]

Whelp, looks like uncle SAL is going to steal this season from us, too

What will it take to make him go away?!

A total collapse of the Atlantic ridge would do it, which will not happen, lol.
All seriously there should be some weakening of the Atlantic ridge which then less SAL gets carried westward across the Atlantic as we head towards the heart of the hurricane season but by the look of things it could stay above average through the rest of the season.

At this rate it would take rain in the Saharan desert.

Which makes sense, the experts look at the Sub-Saharan area too much which has had above average rainfall for a while to forecast the SAL, it surely has not made a dent in the dust outbreaks. They need to look more at the Saharan areas.

[NDG]

Media is starting to talk about the abundance of the magic dust, from our local fox station:

[TheStormExpert]

Local met's down here in WPB, FL have been talking about the SAL since last season! Why just a few days ago Uncle SAL was making his presence in our skies giving us hazy looking skies and very little afternoon t-storm activity for a few days here in S. FL. We are already in mid-August and SAL is still tracking into are region so you know it must be really bad this year in terms of widespread coverage.

[TheStormExpert]

SAL once again makes it's presence in S. FL!(via NWS: Miami Twitter)