Why is the GFS having issues

[boca]

The GFS has been trying to develop a storm system at day 7 for 2 weeks now.I know the model has been upgraded many times over the year,but why is it being so persistant on this particular phantom storm?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Maybe it's not a phantom storm.

[Hurricane Alexis]

But I do agree that the time keeps going up

[hurricanes1234]

Are you referring to the system that could develop from 94E?

[Hurricane Alexis]

It's the system that the GFS keeps developing in the caribbean that eventually moves to FL or the Bahamas.

[USTropics]

Jeff Masters briefly wrote about this on one of his blogs a week or two ago. Here is the excerpt:

According to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model.

[blp]

I commented on this for 90l. This is worst I have ever seen. Even in the years with excessive phantom storms you normally had different solutions such as landfall in Texas one run and then Florida on another run, but this is different.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The FIM has been very consistent as well. Same time frame too.

[USTropics]

The FIM has been very consistent as well. Same time frame too.

The FIM has similar data input as the GFS model. It's slated to be the eventual successor to the GFS model.

The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model. The FIM was originally slated to become operational some time in 2014 (as of spring 2014 the model is still testing); the GFS will continue to be run and maintained for several years afterward, much in the same way the GFS and its predecessor, the Nested Grid Model, ran concurrently for several years. The model currently produces similar results to the GFS, but runs slower on the NWS's operational computers.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah the gfs did pretty bad but models make mistakes, I mean the gfs model is like tony romo has some good days but more bad days lol

[boca]

I don't usually make a comment about the models but the soluation and track has been consistent for at least 10 days but the error on the model is that it stays at 144 hours each day.

[djones65]

I personally believe you guys are putting way too much weight on the details of the model runs! I mean the models are designed to " model" weather conditions up to 16 days into the future! Are you expecting them to be "exact!" the best one can expect is to see a trend or a broad pattern within the time frame. Personally, I believe the GFS has been exceptional thus far! It identified "Boris," and 90L possibly Arthur or TD One well within its frame of modeling. Personally, the GFS has been AWSOME! I am not sure what else you can possibly expect???!!!

[stormlover2013]

The euro has been exceptional but the gfs lol no way

[NDG]

The euro has been exceptional but the gfs lol no way

The Euro has not been that great either, don't forget about its run a few days ago that it forecasted a tropical storm to affect the central gulf coast next Friday.
Personally, I have not been impressed with both models at all at their medium & long range forecasts, both of them have been on both sides of the spectrum making a hard decision for forecasters on which model to go with.

[stormlover2013]

Lol that was one run dude, gfs has been saying for 3 weeks something was going to develop, euro rules like always

[tolakram]

Lol that was one run dude, gfs has been saying for 3 weeks something was going to develop, euro rules like always

This thread is asking the question ... why is the GFS having issues? If this devolves into yet another model war thread it will have to be locked, so let's all try and make sure that doesn't happen.

[Alyono]

was hearing at the office that its having issues every time a trough drops across the US

[stormlover2013]

@TropicalTidbits: Can't assume 7 days in advance that the GFS is wrong either, but compared with a 7-day projection from, say, the ECMWF, it's low-probability

@TropicalTidbits: @RyanMaue I wish I had boycotted the GFS for 3 days during that period like you did. Painful.

@TropicalTidbits: Classic GFS issue in tropics: "Lets crank a TC at entrance region of any kinked jetstreak in sight because I'm bored" http://t.co/fY1S05HINc


@TropicalTidbits: GFS west Caribbean TC next weekend looks like erroneous feedback. Very dubious forecast with no other model support. http://t.co/tNoLNwjf95

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well if anything. The GFS will keep us on are toes in the future, future, future on each run this season.

[boca]

Florida has been in the GFS future for about two weeks now,I find it comical.I read a post that said the the GFS is having issues with troughs in the east which is causing the model to spin up lows in ther tropics in the NW Caribbean Sea.