Why is the GFS having issues
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Why is the GFS having issues
11 days in a row of a phantom storm to develop around 150 hours which is in the medium range.Did something happen to this model over the last 6 months.Its like the upgrades which happened over the last few years were useless.
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Re: Why is the GFS having issues
The 12z GFS now back to weak development after showing Hurricane on previous runs. Hopefully, it can finally drop this thing. This is crazy how long the model has been showing the phantom storm. Really bad way to start the season for the GFS.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Why is the GFS having issues
Nevermind, 18z back to hurricane. Carry on.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Why is the GFS having issues
Can anyone offer any insight as to what any weather officials say about the GFS's antics? I'm not bashing the GFS, it's a great model, but something is going on. Surely this must have caught the attention of NWS NOAA or any other weather officials.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Why is the GFS having issues
asd123 wrote:Can anyone offer any insight as to what any weather officials say about the GFS's antics? I'm not bashing the GFS, it's a great model, but something is going on. Surely this must have caught the attention of NWS NOAA or any other weather officials.
From what I've seen on twitter, the guys in Maryland are aware of the issue. Trying to address the model physics causing it is a bigger issue.
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MGC
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Re: Why is the GFS having issues
Canadian and GFS have traded places.....eventually the GFS will verify. This is why the models, any of them, should not be trusted in the medium or long ranges.......MGC
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gatorcane
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It appears the GFS has had another false positive with the system moving off Africa which doesn't look like it will develop into a cyclone at least as quickly as the GFS was showing for many runs earlier this week.
This just adds to the poor performance of this model this year vs the other reliable model, the ECMWF. For Arthur, the GFS didn't show it that strong at all hitting the Carolinas yet it was a CAT 2. For Cristobal, it had it going west into Florida for a few runs within 120 hours where it didn't even get close to Florida. Earlier in the season it was having convective feedback issues with developing spurious systems in the Western Caribbean in the medium-range guidance.
What is causing these issues with the GFS - was it a recent SW upgrade that has introduced "regressions" to this model as I don't remember it being this unreliable?
Seems to me this model will need a serious upgrade in the off-season. Thoughts?
This just adds to the poor performance of this model this year vs the other reliable model, the ECMWF. For Arthur, the GFS didn't show it that strong at all hitting the Carolinas yet it was a CAT 2. For Cristobal, it had it going west into Florida for a few runs within 120 hours where it didn't even get close to Florida. Earlier in the season it was having convective feedback issues with developing spurious systems in the Western Caribbean in the medium-range guidance.
What is causing these issues with the GFS - was it a recent SW upgrade that has introduced "regressions" to this model as I don't remember it being this unreliable?
Seems to me this model will need a serious upgrade in the off-season. Thoughts?
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