Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

#81 Postby **fci** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:14 pm

Temporarily continuing the "off topic" discussion; I'm glad that Frank clarified his comment about the NHC including future issues in the TWO. I think the more, the better and am glad to see them now including areas still not off the coast.
Sometimes, I think they should include areas that have future model consensus on even if nothing is occurring at the time of the 5 day forecast.
It's a "forecast" up to 5 days out so if the NHC believes something might happen, then they should include it.
I NEVER believe in the holding back of information!

#82 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:38 pm

fci wrote:Temporarily continuing the "off topic" discussion; I'm glad that Frank clarified his comment about the NHC including future issues in the TWO. I think the more, the better and am glad to see them now including areas still not off the coast.
Sometimes, I think they should include areas that have future model consensus on even if nothing is occurring at the time of the 5 day forecast.
It's a "forecast" up to 5 days out so if the NHC believes something might happen, then they should include it.
I NEVER believe in the holding back of information!

They are doing that for the Eastern Pacific, currently.

SeGaBob · #83 Postby **SeGaBob** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:40 pm

It looks like it should be moving offshore in just a couple of hours...does anyone think chances will be raised at 2am?

#84 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: What about TS Beryl(2012)? Seems like a perfect analog to me?

No, I don't think so, Beryl started as a cold core system then became tropical as it traveled over the Gulf Stream. This current system is not a cold core system.

Hurricaneman · #85 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:36 pm

SeGaBob wrote:It looks like it should be moving offshore in just a couple of hours...does anyone think chances will be raised at 2am?

maybe even an invest might be declared and I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to schedule a recon mission

hurrtracker79 · #86 Postby **hurrtracker79** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:41 pm

Where can you go to see what the active Invests are? I used to have the link. Anyone? Thx!

#87 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:49 pm

0z NAM likes development chances for this system, not that I really care about that model

#88 Postby **lester** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:52 am

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...30 PERCENT.

bamajammer4eva · #89 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:06 am

hurrtracker79 wrote:Where can you go to see what the active Invests are? I used to have the link. Anyone? Thx!

Navy site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Looks like they took down their FTP/atcf tcinvest folder as they said they would after last year to avoid confusion over people prematurely upgrading invests.

It was somewhere here

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/

beoumont · #90 Postby **beoumont** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:39 am

Cute. Flash in pan? Image from 5 am.

Hurricane_Luis · #91 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 5:10 am

hurrtracker79 wrote:Where can you go to see what the active Invests are? I used to have the link. Anyone? Thx!

I use this one, It doesn't update as frequently as the others but it does the job. They are also links to satellite loops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

#92 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 5:30 am

Looks real good at this early morning hour. The Low Pressure area appears to be nearing or about to emerge offshore. Convection really has become concentrated and we are beginning to see some curvature to the structure. I expect invest designation immediately today.

#93 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 6:14 am

Yeap, looking good this morning, convection maintained during the night over the warm waters of the Atlantic, though it looks like the mid level vorticity & deep convection is displaced further south from the weak surface low.
Meanwhile models overnight have shifted in bringing the possible system closer to FL over the next 3 days, with the NAM being the most aggressive and closest to FL. The Euro still shows that if the low tracks closer to the coast the better UL conditions it will have with an UL ridge staying put near the FL/GA coastal waters.

#94 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 6:49 am

Up to a Medium chance now within 48 hrs.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak low pressure system located just off the coast of South
Carolina is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

#95 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:22 am

Zoomed in saved image of convection. Should be designated an invest soon:

#96 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:30 am

is 91L on NRL site now.

USTropics · #97 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:32 am

For further discussion on this area: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116423

Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

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