Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

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tropicwatch
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Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

#1 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:42 am

Storms have been pretty consistent in this area for the past few days and the visible sat loop and radars give a hint of a slight circulation but pressures are fairly high in the area.
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#2 Postby Airboy » Sun Jul 06, 2014 10:00 am

I have notice and wondering about that area too.
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#3 Postby USTropics » Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:33 am

This is in association with a stationary front that extends from the Georgia coast. The frontal boundary has limited upper-level support and should push northeastward as a warm front while gradually weakening over the next 2-3 days.
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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:19 pm

Still with Hurricane Arthur recently forming in the same area it is worth watching. But probably has a real slim chance of doing anything more than what it's doing now.
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Re: Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Jul 06, 2014 1:32 pm

12z 4km-NAM showing development of a weak TS while accelerates it out to sea
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#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 06, 2014 6:44 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough extending from northeastern Florida to just
offshore of the coast of the Carolinas is producing widespread
cloudiness and disorganized showers. Surface pressures are high in
the area and strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant
development of this system as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re:

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 06, 2014 6:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough extending from northeastern Florida to just
offshore of the coast of the Carolinas is producing widespread
cloudiness and disorganized showers. Surface pressures are high in
the area and strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant
development of this system as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2-Day Outlook :darrow:
Image

5-Day Outlook :darrow:
Image
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Re: Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

#9 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:17 pm

I realize that this is a different disturbance, but so close to the same region (and felt it was too insignificant to start an entirely new thread on it)..... anyone else seeing a wee bit of turning around 24.0 & 74.0 in association with that wave coming westward? Seems to be getting fired up ever so slightly, while in response to the shear from the trough directly west of it. Only mentioning it because it would seem that this general area might exhibit similar type of cyclogenisis over the course of the season and might just be where a fair amount of development occurs.
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Re: Area off of Southeast U.S. Coast

#10 Postby Airboy » Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:59 am

chaser1 wrote:I realize that this is a different disturbance, but so close to the same region (and felt it was too insignificant to start an entirely new thread on it)..... anyone else seeing a wee bit of turning around 24.0 & 74.0 in association with that wave coming westward? Seems to be getting fired up ever so slightly, while in response to the shear from the trough directly west of it. Only mentioning it because it would seem that this general area might exhibit similar type of cyclogenisis over the course of the season and might just be where a fair amount of development occurs.


I have look at that one since yesterday, and that area looks more interesting today compared to "disturbance nr 1".
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#11 Postby Steve820 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:33 pm

This AOI is off the TWO. What an epic fail! :lol:
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