Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[Hurricaneman]

All I want right now is something that can bring plenty of rain to PR and some of the Caribbean islands that are going thru a drought as I type this.

If the Euro is right there may be a possibility of that

[hurricanehunter69]

Say this thing was to magically develop with the hostile conditions I couldn't see much more than a similar repeat of TS Chantal from last July around this time. Those Easterlies will eat it alive!

This is probably true. But it still counts for those who are lookin to score correctly on total predicted storms.

[Gustywind]

Pouch time now , let's wait and see what could happen from this thing.

[jaguarjace]

I've made an hourly AVN loop.

[cycloneye]

A weak spin but little convection.

[blp]

The trend I am seeing today is the Euro and GFS are holding on to it longer. Euro on 00z run had it for only 48hrs and now 12z up to 96hrs. The GFS 00z had it up to 126hr and 18z now holds a faint signature of the wave past 144hr. I still think the dry air past 40w will be hard to overcome. Let's see if the trend continues.

[TheStormExpert]

The trend I am seeing today is the Euro and GFS are holding on to it longer. Euro on 00z run had it for only 48hrs and now 12z up to 96hrs. The GFS 00z had it up to 126hr and 18z now holds a faint signature of the wave past 144hr. I still think the dry air past 40w will hard to overcome. Let's see if the trend continues.

Is this the area that the GFS Ensembles are trying to show development from?

[blp]

Is this the area that the GFS Ensembles are trying to show development from?

Yes, just be careful not to read into any of the individual ensembles too much since they can be misleading and will not necessarily jive with the operational run.

[blp]

Well the GFS at 138hr now holding onto it nicely. Big change and a continuation of the trend today.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014071900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_23.png

[Hurricaneman]

the GFS is getting close to being a threat to Bermuda, this could get interesting next week if the Euro joins it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

the GFS is getting close to being a threat to Bermuda, this could get interesting next week if the Euro joins it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, if you call a very weak area of low pressure a threat!

[cycloneye]

Someone said Euro joining GFS? Look.

[ouragans]

Just for the stats, this wave was shown 1 month ago on the CFS as a weak system crossing the southern islands (St Vincent, St Lucia and Martinique) by July 23rd. Gotta keep one eye on it.

[cycloneye]

8 AM.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N27W TO 8N30W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ELSEWHERE...DRY SAHARAN
AIR IS N OF 15N.

[blp]

The CMC has this now and keeps it past 192hrs. Model are starting to get on board with this now. Right now the Euro has it the most South.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014071900/gem_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_8.png

[TheStormExpert]

Someone said Euro joining GFS? Look.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2h55oj4.jpg

Does anyone have a link to follow the Euro runs like the image above?

[gatorcane]

The CMC has this now and keeps it past 192hrs. Model are starting to get on board with this now. Right now the Euro has it the most South.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014071900/gem_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_8.png

Here is the closest it gets to the Leewards on the 00Z run, at 150 hours:

Does anyone have a link to follow the Euro runs like the image above?

Here you go. Look on the left-hand side under "Model Extras." It's got other global model runs as well so a good link to bookmark:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

[SFLcane]

Euro runs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=024

[gatorcane]

Saved visible loop. Very bottom-right, you can see the area of interest with cyclonic turning clearly evident. Let's see if it can build more convection:

[TheStormExpert]

If this were to develop it looks as if a strong trough would be waiting off the E. Coast to turn it out to sea being only a potential threat to Bermuda, MAYBE Canada. Seems like the pattern may be switching to one very similar to the one present during the 2010/2011 seasons?