Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,the pouch folks are back doing their analysis of all the waves! Pouch 04L is inside Africa.





http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P04L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014.html

[JonathanBelles]

If I am reading those images correctly, that blob in western Africa is not P04L.

Also, out of curiosity, what happened to the first three pouches.

[cycloneye]

If I am reading those images correctly, that blob in western Africa is not P04L.

Also, out of curiosity, what happened to the first three pouches.

Here are the other three in front.

[cycloneye]

JonathanBelles They do the daily analysis during the morning hours.

[cycloneye]

Here is the synopsis made this morning.


P04L
12N, 14E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Zero confidence in positions, until a distinct, relatively large pouch (compared to the other three pouches of the day) is suddenly depicted along the African coast at 84 hours.

GFS: Like ECMWF, zero confidence in the early positions, but the pouch forms much sooner, at 48 hours.

UKMET: Also, zero confidence in the positions for the first few days. Does not become a pouch with a CL-trough intersection until Day 5 off Africa.

NAVGEM: OUTLIER! Depicts a well-organized pouch from the start. Becomes “double-barreled” with two OW maxima during Days 2-3. I favor the western one, which eventually develops into the large pouch off the African coast.


http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 071600.txt

[cycloneye]

Wave was introduced at 2 AM.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 16N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE ACROSS WEST AFRICA AT THIS TIME IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN
09W-17W.

[cycloneye]

There is some confusion about the pouch number but that will be sort out later today.

8 AM:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N17W TO 19N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA THIS
MORNING IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

[HurricaneFan]

But how can there be confusion between Pouch 03L and Pouch 04L when they are far apart?

[blp]

This area is gaining support for development.

[blp]

Middle of the Atlantic has the best probability right now.

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19W FROM 10N TO 20N AND IS MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N W OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 22W.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved image:

[blp]

The 12z GFS showing this at 120hrs now. Let's see if the Euro latches on.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014071712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_20.png

[cycloneye]

JonathanBelles,you were right.I think the confusion about which number of pouch this one is has ended and is Pouch 03L.

P03L
9N, 20W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Following a tiny OW max for the first couple days, which may not actually be the precursor to the eventual pouch. Dives into the ITCZ. Does not become a circular pouch until 96 hours.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, but slower (even though phase speed used is slightly faster).

UKMET: Continues to have the strongest depiction of P03L. Analysis position is farther southeast than in other models. Analysis position could be inaccurate. (Pouch may be east of the domain.)

NAVGEM: Unlike yesterday, positions can be determined today; however, they are of just a tiny OW max for the first 60 hours, with a lot of uncertainty of the exact role that this OW max has in the circulation depicted from 72 hours onward. The eventual pouch is much slower and smaller than in other models. Appears to be slowed with an interaction with P04L approaching to the NE.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014.html

[cycloneye]

Below 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 7N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

[Hurricaneman]

I really can't see much coming of this with the sinking air and shear around but in a few days there might be a better environment but as said above too much sinking air to do much of anything

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Say this thing was to magically develop with the hostile conditions I couldn't see much more than a similar repeat of TS Chantal from last July around this time. Those Easterlies will eat it alive!

[Hurricaneman]

Say this thing was to magically develop with the hostile conditions I couldn't see much more than a similar repeat of TS Chantal from last July around this time. Those Easterlies will eat it alive!

True, as I forgot to say in a few days maybe 3 or 4 there might be a small chance at development but as you said its going to hit that area of high shear in the Caribbean which is not uncommon for July and would kill anything that tried to develop

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

All I want right now is something that can bring plenty of rain to PR and some of the Caribbean islands that are going thru a drought as I type this.