TWC bullish about 1st week of aug

[weathernerdguy]

Nothing in eastern half of Atlantic for now, one would think:

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/111860o.jpg

Interesting as we near August but oh how quickly this can change

August 1st 2005 had a lot of SAL even as the wave that produced Irene was about to emerge from Africa.

this season has more dry air that in 2005 for sure then

[bamajammer4eva]

bamajammer4eva, please don't compare 2005 to this season terms of the bad SAL that existed in 2005 before everything ramped up. We know that 2005 was during one of those excessive activity periods and that season had lots of other conditions going for it as well that 2014 does not have.

Prediction: B and C Storms in August, D, E, F Storms in September, and G storm in October...
and that's like 1 storm every 2 weeks in August and 1 storm every week and 1/2 or so in September....
So as you can see, I'm far from "predicting" that it's going to be a completely dry year!!!.... 2 Storms in August and 3 in September is actually pretty good in a year where the NHC is expecting low activity..... and who knows, if there are only 5 total storms in August and September, one or more of those storms could be a major hurricane that hits land....

Of course it's not going to be like 2005 since we were already on Irene by August 1st that year. However as the graphic from 2005 shows, there was a lot of SAL just 4 days prior to Irene's first advisory so Sal alone in late July and early August is not an indicator since it's there nearly every summer at this time.

[beoumont]

[quote="ConvergenceZone"
Of course it's not going to be like 2005 since we were already on Irene by August 1st that year. However as the graphic from 2005 shows, there was a lot of SAL just 4 days prior to Irene's first advisory so Sal alone in late July and early August is not an indicator since it's there nearly every summer at this time.

Comparing any year to 2005 is never a realistic thing to do. That was about as abnormal a year there has ever been or likely will be. The only year on record that even "kinda" compared was 1933; and that was 72 years apart. A once in a lifetime occurrence for activity.

[bamajammer4eva]

[quote="ConvergenceZone"
Of course it's not going to be like 2005 since we were already on Irene by August 1st that year. However as the graphic from 2005 shows, there was a lot of SAL just 4 days prior to Irene's first advisory so Sal alone in late July and early August is not an indicator since it's there nearly every summer at this time.

Comparing any year to 2005 is never a realistic thing to do. That was about as abnormal a year there has ever been or likely will be. The only year on record that even "kinda" compared was 1933; and that was 72 years apart. A once in a lifetime occurrence for activity.

Exactly and look how busy it was even with all of that SAL so SAL has little effect since it's there every year at this time.

[ConvergenceZone]

[quote="ConvergenceZone"
Of course it's not going to be like 2005 since we were already on Irene by August 1st that year. However as the graphic from 2005 shows, there was a lot of SAL just 4 days prior to Irene's first advisory so Sal alone in late July and early August is not an indicator since it's there nearly every summer at this time.

Comparing any year to 2005 is never a realistic thing to do. That was about as abnormal a year there has ever been or likely will be. The only year on record that even "kinda" compared was 1933; and that was 72 years apart. A once in a lifetime occurrence for activity.

That's a good point. Although I think that we will go back to a period of active tropics once again , but who knows when that will occur...
Kind of like the horrible drought here in California. I'm hoping the cycle of drought will end this winter, otherwise California is going to enter into a catastrophic condition the state has never ever seen before, so I'm crossing my fingers that this winter will be a very wet one.......

[WPBWeather]

Again, no one really knows why 2004/05 occurred with multiple landfalls in areas not hit for some years. And how active do people want a season to be??

[ConvergenceZone]

Again, no one really knows why 2004/05 occurred with multiple landfalls in areas not hit for some years. And how active do people want a season to be??

exactly, which is why it's exactly not that shocking to only call for 6 or so named storms for the season....

[jinftl]

In some ways it is all about location location location of where a storm finds it's mojo and what the conditions are to support significant intensification in someone one's backyard.

I would take a steady train of waves developing very quickly into hurricanes not long after exiting the Cape Verdes and being steered more by upper level troughs and ridges safely out to sea as 'fish storms' than marginal but somewhat trackable waves fighting shear and SAL that are steered more by the lower level easterlies on a west course only to find an extremely conducive environment too close to the U.S. or Caribbean to miss land.

Andrew (1992 season with 7 named storms). Katrina & Rita (2005 insane season) -the Bahama Bombers- all didn't get their act together until they were already in the Bahamas and the rest was history.

[Ptarmigan]

[quote="ConvergenceZone"
Of course it's not going to be like 2005 since we were already on Irene by August 1st that year. However as the graphic from 2005 shows, there was a lot of SAL just 4 days prior to Irene's first advisory so Sal alone in late July and early August is not an indicator since it's there nearly every summer at this time.

Comparing any year to 2005 is never a realistic thing to do. That was about as abnormal a year there has ever been or likely will be. The only year on record that even "kinda" compared was 1933; and that was 72 years apart. A once in a lifetime occurrence for activity.

Exactly. 2005 is an anomaly year no matter how one spins it. I suspect that 2005 type seasons happen like in 1887 and 1933.

On the other hand, 2013 is an anomaly as it is very inactive. Opposite of 2005. It is probably not likely we will see another 2013 season in our life time. The closest are 1907 and 1914. Even 1987 and 1994 had Category 2 hurricane.

I notice 2005 storms formed closer to land than in other seasons. Storms also formed in the Eastern Atlantic, an area not known to be a hot spot for tropical development. Not many Cape Verde storms in 2005, unlike other seasons like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2008, and 2010. I notice seasons that have more Cape Verde storms have less number of total storms, but more hurricanes and major hurricanes with higher Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

I notice some of the most active seasons happen following El Nino. 2005 happened following a Modoki El Nino, which also happened in 2010.

[Cyclenall]

Exactly. 2005 is an anomaly year no matter how one spins it. I suspect that 2005 type seasons happen like in 1887 and 1933.

On the other hand, 2013 is an anomaly as it is very inactive. Opposite of 2005. It is probably not likely we will see another 2013 season in our life time. The closest are 1907 and 1914. Even 1987 and 1994 had Category 2 hurricane.

I notice 2005 storms formed closer to land than in other seasons. Storms also formed in the Eastern Atlantic, an area not known to be a hot spot for tropical development. Not many Cape Verde storms in 2005, unlike other seasons like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2008, and 2010. I notice seasons that have more Cape Verde storms have less number of total storms, but more hurricanes and major hurricanes with higher Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

I notice some of the most active seasons happen following El Nino. 2005 happened following a Modoki El Nino, which also happened in 2010.

I disagree with not seeing another 2013 in our lifetime, in ACE and number of named storms. You might have a point with nothing above category 1 status which is truly pathetic beyond imagination. I would call the Eastern Atlantic the "North-eastern Atlantic" or "Canary islands region" to avoid confusion with the Cape Verde area.

[Ptarmigan]

Exactly. 2005 is an anomaly year no matter how one spins it. I suspect that 2005 type seasons happen like in 1887 and 1933.

On the other hand, 2013 is an anomaly as it is very inactive. Opposite of 2005. It is probably not likely we will see another 2013 season in our life time. The closest are 1907 and 1914. Even 1987 and 1994 had Category 2 hurricane.

I notice 2005 storms formed closer to land than in other seasons. Storms also formed in the Eastern Atlantic, an area not known to be a hot spot for tropical development. Not many Cape Verde storms in 2005, unlike other seasons like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2008, and 2010. I notice seasons that have more Cape Verde storms have less number of total storms, but more hurricanes and major hurricanes with higher Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

I notice some of the most active seasons happen following El Nino. 2005 happened following a Modoki El Nino, which also happened in 2010.

I disagree with not seeing another 2013 in our lifetime, in ACE and number of named storms. You might have a point with nothing above category 1 status which is truly pathetic beyond imagination. I would call the Eastern Atlantic the "North-eastern Atlantic" or "Canary islands region" to avoid confusion with the Cape Verde area.

Prefer Northeastern Atlantic. Seeing nothing above Category 1 season is unusual.

[TheStormExpert]

Really don't know how 2005 ended up even being somewhat comparable to this season by some, even though it could be the anomaly in the other extreme compared to this season and 2013.

[TheStormExpert]

I would assume TWC no longer predicts a somewhat active 1st week of August now. They were mentioning that the MJO was going to come accross into the Atlantic and maybe help improve things somewhat but that's not going to happen as of now.

[Frank2]

It's odd when the media act disappointed that there isn't one Cat 5 after another - as often happens their best ratings are when millions are suffering. It's selfish of them because it gives their New York career a boost at the expense of others, so for them to be "bullish" (which ironically sounds very much like another word) is incredibly shallow.

I was renting a house at the time of Andrew, lost that house and know the amount of human suffering my neighbors and I endured, so, if there is a hurricane I'll track it as someone who worked in the weather business for over a decade, but if there's nothing I won't be disappointed, either (though let's hope the Caribbean gets some needed rain this coming Fall and Winter)...

Frank