Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC gives it a shout out

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands could
develop into an area of low pressure by early next week over
the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of
this system through midweek as it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

I made a new thread as there was none for the highlighted area that NHC has so I moved your post from the models thread.

This wave may be a little bit different from the TD2 one as the MJO may arrive in Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands could
develop into an area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic in a few days. Some slow development of this system
is possible by the middle of next week while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[NDG]

0z GFS was very bullish with this tropical wave.

[gatorcane]

The GFS shows a low shear environment across the MDR next week where the tropical wave will be traversing which would allow some slow development.

For example, here is what it shows 5 days from now:

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Shear may be low, but how does the dry air in front of it look?

[Blown Away]

0z GFS was very bullish with this tropical wave.


http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... ddace1.png

It just seems like a long time since a model has shown a decent low in the MDR...

[somethingfunny]

What did the overnight ECMWF run depict?

[Alyono]

best to not waste your time looking at an EC run. It cannot see MDR development

[TheAustinMan]

:uarrow: Shear may be low, but how does the dry air in front of it look?

Conditions aren't exactly favorable in the dry air department over the central Atlantic right this very moment, but according to the GFS this system may do the same as 02L and attain a bubble of moisture to work with in the future.

Current conditions -

[tropicwatch]

Still massive dry air. Hardly a break in it all the way to Puerto Rico.

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS run not as bullish and much further southward into the Carib. Sea.

[gatorcane]

GFS coming alive on the 12Z. You can see the low moving towards the leewards (what we are discussing this thread) and another one behind it at 168 hours:

[cycloneye]

HWRF joins on development.

[blp]

CMC is on board but keeps it a little while longer in the eastern atlantic than gfs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014072612/gem_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_20.png

[blp]

HWRF joins on development.

[]http://oi57.tinypic.com/2ppj9yf.jpg[/img]

Several models now coming on board. The Navgem also has it. The Hwrf latching onto this is something to notice since it has improved a good deal and is a hurricane model.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
could develop into an area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic in a few days. Some slow development of this system
is possible by the middle of next week while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

The folks that do the Pouch analysis have designated it as Pouch 09L. But as the analysis was made at 00:00z,that initial position not corresponds to where it is now.

SYNOPSIS 2014072600

P09L
8N, 15W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Tracked for 84 hours, but most of the time, the position is very uncertain. Only at 36 hours is there something close to a pouch with a CL-trough intersection; otherwise, P09L is just an OW max. The first day is most uncertain. This feature is tracked in today’s ECMWF because it is a distinct pouch in GFS and UKMET (not because ECMWF has a distinct pouch).

GFS: Strongest eventual depiction. One could argue that GFS depicts P09L in the analysis as just an OW max on the southeastern side of P07L.

UKMET: Eventually depicts a distinct pouch between dissipating P07L to the west and stronger P08L to the east, but not until 96 hours. It ends up being stronger than in ECMWF and NAVGEM, but weaker than the GFS depiction. One could argue that P09L in the analysis is just an OW max on the western side of P08L (rather than near P07L as in GFS). All positions for the first three days before the pouch develops are based upon interpolation rather than an actual pouch position.

NAVGEM: Like ECMWF, NAVGEM is tracked simply because GFS and UKMET depict the development of P09L. A pouch in the analysis quickly dissipates. After a few days, an OW is depicted in the ITCZ, and it is pulled eastward on Day 5 by the approaching strong P08L.



http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P09L.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the 72 hour TAFB position.