underthwx wrote:How do you know when it ends?
I would have to assume that we would need to go at least 15 or so consecutive years where none of the seasons really surpass the 1981-2020 average of 14 named storms (with most of the seasons having 14 or less NSs or something like that) and with each season not really exceeding the 1981-2020 averages of 7 hurricanes and 3 majors (with the vast majority of the seasons having 7 or less hurricanes and 3 or less majors). We could definitely still see Cat 5s and destructive hurricanes (as well as perhaps one or two slightly above average seasons with respect to the 14/7/3 metric), but crazy seasons like 2005, 2010, 2017, or 2020 in terms of NSs, ACE, and hurricane/major hurricane numbers would not happen. In my opinion it's kind of like that "how do you determine whether a species is truly extinct," so like if you intensely look for members of a certain species in its natural habitat and fail to find at least one over a course of 50 years, then you can likely determine that it is extinct. Quite similarly, if we have a decent number of consecutive years that do not really surpass 14/7/3, then the chances are we could conclude that we have entered an inactive phase. I personally have no idea when this will happen, although I would reasonably guess that given the last major active phase lasted roughly 40 years, the one we are currently in now would end around 2035 or so.