When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#301 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:44 pm

NotSparta wrote:...and looks like AMO has sunk again. We'll see what it does, it could change, but if the active phase really did end that would be ironic


If the AMO goes down, does it mean active or inactive Atlantic season?


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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#302 Postby NotSparta » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:48 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NotSparta wrote:...and looks like AMO has sunk again. We'll see what it does, it could change, but if the active phase really did end that would be ironic


If the AMO goes down, does it mean active or inactive Atlantic season?


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-AMO usually means a less active hurricane season, and for multiple decades usually, though there can be strong seasons. Keeping an eye on it, could rise again
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#303 Postby StruThiO » Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:54 pm

Just to emphasize

Image

this was the pattern one year ago today. Although the current signature looks more like -AMO than last year imo we know how active last year was. So as :uarrow: said we just need to watch thru april and may.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#304 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:03 am

StruThiO wrote:Just to emphasize

Image

this was the pattern one year ago today. Although the current signature looks more like -AMO than last year imo we know how active last year was. So as :uarrow: said we just need to watch thru april and may.

I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today. There have been some seasons in the active era with a -AMO look anyway. 2000 is an example.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#305 Postby StruThiO » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:09 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today.


Yeah, I agree completely. Plus the atlantic seems to like doing this before reversing itself in may or so the last few years. It will probably change but I still find it interesting enough to post about.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#306 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:25 am

StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today.


Yeah, I agree completely. Plus the atlantic seems to like doing this before reversing itself in may or so the last few years. It will probably change but I still find it interesting enough to post about.

This has really thrown off April forecasts since 2015, in addition to ENSO uncertainty. I’m interested to see what happens to the Atlantic SST profile in April and May.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#307 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:55 am

I plotted the AMO 1950-2018 using Klotzbach's new method, which precludes calculating it prior to 1950 due to missing surface pressure data. It is starting to look like the warm AMO may be ending. Certainly, recent years have been a good bit cooler. The plot below includes data through February, 2018.

Image
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#308 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:I plotted the AMO 1950-2018 using Klotzbach's new method, which precludes calculating it prior to 1950 due to missing surface pressure data. It is starting to look like the warm AMO may be ending. Certainly, recent years have been a good bit cooler. The plot below includes data through February, 2018.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

Considering how active 2017 was (and even 2016 to an extent), I am beginning to think this index does not take MDR SSTAs into account enough. If I remember correctly it has been based primarily on tropical Atlantic SLP and far North Atlantic SSTA.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#309 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:29 am

2017 was a warm AMO during the hurricane season except for July.

1 2017 -0.58
2 2017 0.08
3 2017 -0.61
4 2017 -0.81
5 2017 0.22
6 2017 0.06
7 2017 -0.89
8 2017 0
9 2017 0.31
10 2017 0.16
11 2017 0.39
12 2017 0.33
1 2018 -0.61
2 2018 -1.29
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#310 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:44 pm

If 2018 fails to be active like some are saying I’d say the active era has ended. It’s likely been over for awhile now and 2017 was probably just a random spike up in overall Atlantic activity.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#311 Postby StruThiO » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:12 pm

:uarrow: I respectfully disagree. The last few seasons were either el nino'd or the thc collapsed. I think a few more years will be needed to answer this question conclusively.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#312 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:If 2018 fails to be active like some are saying I’d say the active era has ended. It’s likely been over for awhile now and 2017 was probably just a random spike up in overall Atlantic activity.


I also respectfully disagree, 2017 was more active than any inactive era seasons. There's a possibility that it ended, but it didn't end before last year, imo. Remember, AMO and MDR SSTAs seem to drop during the winter and rebound in spring too. That's what's been happening the past few years
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#313 Postby Macrocane » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:10 am

Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#314 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:12 am

Macrocane wrote:Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.

2017 has made a lot of people forget how active 2016 was. 2016 wasn’t nearly as destructive as 2017, but was still definitely an active season, at least compared to the 1970s-early 1990s.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#315 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:45 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
Macrocane wrote:Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.

2017 has made a lot of people forget how active 2016 was. 2016 wasn’t nearly as destructive as 2017, but was still definitely an active season, at least compared to the 1970s-early 1990s.


However, iirc, seasons like 2016 are possible during cool AMO eras, but 2017 was way outside that margin disproving the argument.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#316 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 8:11 am

Just bumping the thread, looks like some are thinking it has.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#317 Postby weathaguyry » Wed May 23, 2018 8:21 am

I personally don't think it has, because the -AMO look has been caused solely from the +NAO, once the NAO flips to negative, the pattern will likely start to reverse

Image
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#318 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 8:38 am

:uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#319 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 23, 2018 9:05 am

I don't know why we are talking about the active era ending when last year was way more active than any year from 1970-94 and had over 200 ACE. :lol:

But seriously, this -AMO SST profile could easily change with a prolonged -NAO. Let's wait to see if the Atlantic is actually quiet first.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#320 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed May 23, 2018 9:17 am

NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around


How much longer do you think this +NAO will last? If you do see it lasting through the peak of the season, do you think it could pose a problem with tropical systems getting blocked from recurving and posing more of a threat to the SE coast?
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