When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[Agua]

proof is in the pudding, and the limits of human prognostication serve as a reminder of how little we know.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One thing I have noticed; the ATL activity period correlates with the EPac inactivity. 1994 was the last season in a very active period in the EPac, and the last season in the inactive period in the ATL. And last year was an active season the east PACIFIC (despite most storms being weak) whereas it was inactive in the ATL. This year is also above-average in terms of storm number and ACE in the EPAC, and, below average in the ATL. So if next year's season in the ATL is inactive, and is opposite in the EPAC then the ATL active phase had concluded.

[Yellow Evan]

One thing I have noticed; the ATL activity period correlates with the EPac inactivity. 1994 was the last season in a very active period in the EPac, and the last season in the inactive period in the ATL. And last year was an active season the east PACIFIC (despite most storms being weak) whereas it was inactive in the ATL. This year is also above-average in terms of storm number and ACE in the EPAC, and, below average in the ATL. So if next year's season in the ATL is inactive, and is opposite in the EPAC then the ATL active phase had concluded.

I kinda feel that is a myth.

Look at the 70s. And based on what I've gathered, the 30s and 20s were very active. It just happened to be the the AMO and PDO flipped at around the same time.

With that said, I imagine there's long been some correlation between EPAC and ATL activity. Because when the ATL is active, bye bye tropical waves for the EPAC. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Yellow Evan]

proof is in the pudding, and the limits of human prognostication serve as a reminder of how little we know.

Agreed. I'm very interested to see what the next few years have up our alley, and rather there is real strong correlation between EPAC and ATL activity phases.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

Here is a graph from of seasonal ACE from wunderground.



It's tough eyeballing a definitive trend (sample is small here) with 100 being about near average. All I can tell is good and bad years come in little clusters, then you have the strong ENSO events that sometimes buckles it for a year one way or the other. Agree with Yellow Evan, expectations were set too high since late 90s to mid 2000s.

Ignore the last bar, it is 2014 still in progress.

[WPBWeather]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

Here is a graph from of seasonal ACE from wunderground.



It's tough eyeballing a definitive trend (sample is small here) with 100 being about near average. All I can tell is good and bad years come in little clusters, then you have the strong ENSO events that sometimes buckles it for a year one way or the other. Agree with Yellow Evan, expectations were set too high since late 90s to mid 2000s.

Ignore the last bar, it is 2014 still in progress.

This is just descriptive data. No statistical inferences are really possible here, except to describe what has happened, which you did.

[WPBWeather]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

Here is a graph from of seasonal ACE from wunderground.



It's tough eyeballing a definitive trend (sample is small here) with 100 being about near average. All I can tell is good and bad years come in little clusters, then you have the strong ENSO events that sometimes buckles it for a year one way or the other. Agree with Yellow Evan, expectations were set too high since late 90s to mid 2000s.

Ignore the last bar, it is 2014 still in progress.

This is just descriptive data. No statistical inferences are really possible here, except to describe what has happened, which you did.

PS to last entry. Someone here has said before "the topics have no memory." While not a statistical statement, it is an instructive one, IMO.

[SFLcane]

The way i see it Hyper-active can mean a lot of things depends how you look at it. There have been plenty of busy seasons since 2004/05 for example 09-12 have been fairly active seasons problem is we have been VERY lucky in terms most storms staying out to sea. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. This luck sooner rather then later will end.

In terms of Florida here is something I tweeted the other night.


South Florida major hurricane landfalls graphic showing how lucky we've been.

[Hammy]

Regarding the graph, I notice the second one contains within it the last active period (1930s-1960s) and the interesting thing that stands out immediately to me is that the vast majority of landfalls occurred from 1944-50 (near the end of the active period.) So it's something to consider given that we're about halfway through the current Atlantic cycle.

[Alyono]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

yes, but ther ehave been above average seasons in 2011 and 2012 as well. Also, even though 2007 was below normal ACE, there were 2 cat 5s

[somethingfunny]

nothing until there is something

[somethingfunny]

Ryan Maue is on the money with this. Between 1995 and 2005 the hyperactive seasons were 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2005. And 2008, 2010 have been the only hyperactive seasons after 2005.

We use 2005 as a benchmark year because it it was such a traumatic hurricane season for us, but just looking at that number set makes it clear from 2008 and 2010 that the hyperactive phase continued and lasted a minimum of 1995-2010.

11 and 12 had high storm counts and of course Sandy, but things were clearly not clicking on all cylinders in the tropics and the bottom has fallen out in 13 and 14. While only 02 was below average, the 99-04 gap shows that gaps are to be expected.

And this being the first of those gaps between hyperactive seasons to actually have prolonged below average activity in all categories just shows that this is not yet a trend.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, here is what I think with some research I've done on El Nino trends, or at least assuming this year will count as one, which I believe it should. Even if it isn't official yet, the fact that the EPAC has been so busy with the major storms there have been is pretty telling that it seems like we have an El Nino. But anyway....

I am first of all aware that models indicate that El Nino could last through much of 2015. However, I'm not sure I buy that for now. Remember, all of those models said that El Nino would be really strong earlier in the year, but it's been a bit weaker than what was indicated. There were some predictions this would rival the 1997-98 event even! I think this goes to show that these kinds of predictions don't have the greatest amount of skill in the world.

I'm not saying it won't last through the 2015 season, but I'm going to guess that it isn't too likely for now, just because there's a lot of time between now and then. Even so, this event is also combined with a relative lack of hurricane activity in the US mainland since 2005 (only 8 hurricanes have hit in the last nine years, so it will take four hurricanes to hit next year to match the uber-quiet 70s). Every time there have been one of these really quiet spells, a season comes along shortly after an El Nino and the US is hit like crazy it seems. It happened in 1933 after six hurricanes had hit in the previous six seasons. It happened in 1985 after only 11 hurricanes hit in the prior 13 seasons. 1998 and 1999 each had three hurricanes strike the US (with nearly a fourth in 1999 out of Dennis) after an eight-year period of just eight hurricanes reaching the US.

My research has also led in the direction of the second year after an El Nino hurricane season as the most likely season for this kind of activity. 1985 and 1999 fit the mold perfectly, as has most recently 2011 when Irene hit the East Coast as a Category 1 by wind, but with a pressure of 955 mb, more often associated with Category 3's.

If this El Nino ends by the 2015 season, I dread the 2016 season. It may come to have an ACE more like 1985's, which even with all the activity was still a rather average season on that mark. However, the US isn't going to be this lucky forever, and I think when the luck runs out, it could run out in a very big way. (And even in this relatively inactive streak for the US, there have been Ike, Irene, and Sandy. Try telling people hit by those storms that the US has gotten off relatively easy since 2005. On second thought, don't.)

Even with this said, I do think the rest of this season will be quiet for the most part in the Atlantic, though one Gulf tropical storm and a major hurricane somewhere wouldn't surprise me. But don't let this brief quiet period of last year and this year fool you. Yes, maybe the 1995-2005 period of hyperactivity is done, but I don't think above-normal activity is over by a long shot.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

The way i see it Hyper-active can mean a lot of things depends how you look at it. There have been plenty of busy seasons since 2004/05 for example 09-12 have been fairly active seasons problem is we have been VERY lucky in terms most storms staying out to sea. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. This luck sooner rather then later will end.

In terms of Florida here is something I tweeted the other night.


South Florida major hurricane landfalls graphic showing how lucky we've been.

http://i61.tinypic.com/330frx4.jpg

Those images really put thing in perspective. I don't think a lot of folks living in South Florida today realize just how often the area got hit back then. There certainly would be significant economic impacts to the area should such an active cycle return and hopefully we will never see that again here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I see no evidence that the active era is ended; we're only 19 years into a 30-40 year cycle. The main issue with the Atlantic basin the past few years (with regards to deep tropics strong hurricanes) looks to be the unusually warm subtropical Atlantic waters. When you focus the warmest waters in the basin here, the deep tropics are robbed of upward motion and replaced with sinking air, which is dry. In order for these warm waters to be dispersed, we need an El Nino, which features an active subtropical jet in this region. This is why years after long streaks of Neutral or La Nina conditions are typically slow.

If we get an El Nino this fall into winter, and it dissipates prior to the start of the summer, 2015 should be active all other things favorable.

[cycloneye]

Here is an articule that talks about the question that I have in this topic about if the active period since 1995 has ended.

An extract of the articule,hyperlink of whole articule below the extract:

Is the era of hurricane intensity drawing to a close?

Such eras generally last between one and three decades, and we're in year 19. They tend to produce an abnormal number of hurricanes and major hurricanes each season, increasing the odds of a U.S. landfall.

Yet last year only two Category 1 hurricanes emerged, and this year has been relatively slow with four hurricanes so far, and only one of those had sustained winds greater than 110 mph. The average season sees six hurricanes, three major.

Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said an era is over only when there is "some convincing evidence that conditions have reversed."

While he cautions it's too early to say that's happened, he said there are some hints the Atlantic basin might be calming down.

Read complete articule here

[Yellow Evan]

My thoughts as well. It's possible, but we don't know yet.

What's more interesting for me at least is the EPAC inactive era over?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: My thoughts as well. It's possible, but we don't know yet.

What's more interesting for me at least is the EPAC inactive era over?

Good question about EPAC being the contrary to the North Atlantic regarding this question.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: My thoughts as well. It's possible, but we don't know yet.

What's more interesting for me at least is the EPAC inactive era over?

Good question about EPAC being the contrary to the North Atlantic regarding this question.

Going semi- OT here, but we really have no clue how EPAC activity cycles work (due to lack of satellites, good agencies, and lack of observations). I've seen experts think it directly coorelats with the ATL, but I tend to think it is +PDO driven. Which means 1976-1995 (or 1976-1997) were active, while 1948-1975 were inactive, but the 70s as a whole were active compared to the 1998-2007 period. Part of the problem is we need a re-analysis of the basin. However, remember, the EPAC is of not much importance as the storms there are usually no threat to land.